2nd half - what if?

[DocJJ]

What if we start to skid badly?  I am a pessimist by nature (and the past 5 years of Orioles baseball haven't helped!) but what happens if we have to go up against 1st and 2nd place teams and we start to slide in the standings?

 

Would you trade prospects to acquire a stud starting pitcher? And potentially hurt the future to help the team now?

Would you stay the course as the fan base gets upset?

Would you continue to play Frazier and Mateo or give Westburg and Ortiz more of a chance?

 

What would you do with the abundance of "just a guy"s on our team: Mateo, Urias, Frazier, Hicks, McKenna, etc....Not that these guys are bad, but they're also not good...

[wildcard]

My bet is Elias will stay on course.   But what does that mean?

I don't see him trading for a #1 starter.   He is developing his #1 starter.   Wells, Bradish, GRod.   He will continue to give them starts.  I expect GRod back soon.

Most everyone has forgotten about Voth and Hall.  Voth was bad for the Nationals to begin 2022.  But he started 17 games for the O's with 3.04 ERA.  Yes, he is a starter and he is getting healthy right now.  On his way to help in the 2nd half.    Means is also.   He is throwing and will be pitching in the minors  in July.

Hall could be pitching is relief right now but the O's are fixing his back so the can throw 98 instead of 94.   Don't count him out for the season.  Irvin is the stop gap starter.   Not as good as the top 5, 6, or 7 starters, but ready to fill in when needed, go to the pen in long relief when the rotation is full and spot start throughout he rest of the season.

Charles and/or  Hernandez could follow Cano to the pen.    There is bunch going on here.

Elias may use his surplus prospects to get an experienced reliever.   Stowers, Norby, or Haskin could be moved and Frazier could be packaged with  some of these guys to offset the salary of acquiring an expensive pitcher.

Ortiz and Cowser are coming in the 2nd half.  When and where needed.  

I think it is all in the plan already.   

 

Edited July 1, 2023 by wildcard

[foxfield]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My bet is Elias will stay on course.   But what does that mean?

I don't see him trading for a #1 starter.   He is developing his #1 starter.   Wells, Bradish, GRod.   He will continue to give them starts.  I expect GRod back soon.

Most everyone has forgotten about Voth and Hall.  Voth was bad for the Nationals to begin 2022.  But he started 17 games for the O's with 3.04 ERA.  Yes, he is a starter and he is getting healthy right now.  On his way to help in the 2nd half.    Means is also.   He is throwing and will be pitching in the minors  in July.

Hall could be pitching is relief right now but the O's are fixing his back so the can throw 98 instead on 94.   Don't count him out for the season.  Irvin is the stop gap starter.   Not as good as the top 5, 6, or 7 starters, but ready to fill in when needed, go to the pen in long relief when the rotation is full and spot start throughout he rest of the season.

Charles and/or  Hernandez could follow Cano to the pen.    There is bunch going on here.

Elias may use his surplus prospects to get an experienced reliever.   Stowers, Norby, or Haskin could be moved and Frazier could be packaged with  some of these guys to offset the salary of acquiring an expensive pitcher.

Ortiz and Cowser are coming in the 2nd half.  When and where needed.  

I think it is all in the plan already.   

 

I think I agree with this.  I certainly hope the Orioles do not have a major slide in the second half, but I think Elias is happy with what he has and isn't near as motivated as some of us here to push the schedule forward.

I think Cowser & Ortiz and Westy are going to get more looks...maybe Kjerstad too...all of this to prepare them for next year.  Moves in my opinion will focus on bull pen unless there is a deal too good to pass on a SP with more than 2+ years of control.

At the end of the day, I don't know if I am as comfortable with this...but I do think it follows Elias' path.  I think his moves last year at the deadline were good.  Hopefully he can do so again and bring current reinforcements as well as future help.

[oriole]

For the sake of progress, I’d like to see the “just a guy” players mentioned phased out. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading these guys with the idea of addition by subtraction either. Trade Urias and Frazier, possibly Mountcastle if you can get even a Dominican kid for him at this point. Mateo would be a good 26th man to have for his skill set, but if it’s between keep Mateo and have him start half the games and DFA him then I think I’d rather see him gone. 
 

Obviously none of those guys will get anything back that would be in our top 30 list. But just their absence and ability to fit in guys with higher upside would be a good step in the right direction. Hicks kinda got in the way of a Cowser promotion but honestly both Hicks and O’Hearn are gonna fall back to earth soon so slotting Santander at DH and Cowser in LF, Hays in RF could be a good step down the stretch. That’s the type of moves I’d like to see rather than trading for an Aguilar type and pretending it’s a playoff push. 

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, oriole said:

For the sake of progress, I’d like to see the “just a guy” players mentioned phased out. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading these guys with the idea of addition by subtraction either. Trade Urias and Frazier, possibly Mountcastle if you can get even a Dominican kid for him at this point. Mateo would be a good 26th man to have for his skill set, but if it’s between keep Mateo and have him start half the games and DFA him then I think I’d rather see him gone. 
 

Obviously none of those guys will get anything back that would be in our top 30 list. But just their absence and ability to fit in guys with higher upside would be a good step in the right direction. Hicks kinda got in the way of a Cowser promotion but honestly both Hicks and O’Hearn are gonna fall back to earth soon so slotting Santander at DH and Cowser in LF, Hays in RF could be a good step down the stretch. That’s the type of moves I’d like to see rather than trading for an Aguilar type and pretending it’s a playoff push. 

Urias has a 300/371/446/817 OPS vs righties.  And a GG at 3B.   He is not just a guy.

Edited July 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Urias has a 300/371/446/817 OPS vs righties.  And a GG a 3B.   He is not just a guy.

Yea, he's a guy that can bring back a decent return.

[Bemorewins]

51 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

What if we start to skid badly?  I am a pessimist by nature (and the past 5 years of Orioles baseball haven't helped!) but what happens if we have to go up against 1st and 2nd place teams and we start to slide in the standings?

 

Would you trade prospects to acquire a stud starting pitcher? And potentially hurt the future to help the team now?

Would you stay the course as the fan base gets upset?

Would you continue to play Frazier and Mateo or give Westburg and Ortiz more of a chance?

 

What would you do with the abundance of "just a guy"s on our team: Mateo, Urias, Frazier, Hicks, McKenna, etc....Not that these guys are bad, but they're also not good...

- If we start to skid badly we will be out of the race and thus there will be no need for a trade.

- If the team plays .500 or a little over/under from here until the deadline we will be in it. And if that is the case, we should definitely be trying to acquire players that help us succeed in October. How could a stud pitcher hurt our future? I don't even understand the rational of that, unless you believe that a team who drafted and develop ZERO high end pitchers over the last 5 years is going to win with that kind of roster build/construction. Trades were always going to be inevitable because we simply have TOO MANY positional players within the organization.

- Lastly, Westburg is already here and playing everyday. I think it is a mistake to place him in the same category as Ortiz. The Orioles could have given the spot to Ortiz since he was here first, but they appear to have chosen Westburg. SS (as much as some people/posters are resistant to the idea) appears to be Hollidays longterm. There is no real place for Ortiz to play regularly longterm.

- Lastly of the players that you metnioned (Mateo, Urias, Frazier, Hicks, McKenna) ONLY Urias probably has ANY trade value at all. They are backup type players or platoon players. Once Coswer and Kjerstad arrive, the playing time of marginal players will take care of itself.

[DocJJ]

of the "just-a-guy" guys, I certainly like Urias the best.  Has some pop and decent enough contact skill.  He is a Gold Glove winner who can play just about anywhere.   Ideal utility guy you can move around and keep in lineup many days, or start for someone else if injury happens...

 

I'd be curious to know what McKenna could do over a whole season.  He may not do a lot, but has a nice skill set and can play all 3 outfield spots.  Probably not enough contact ability or plate selectivity for an everyday guy, but fun to root for....

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, DocJJ said:

of the "just-a-guy" guys, I certainly like Urias the best.  Has some pop and decent enough contact skill.  He is a Gold Glove winner who can play just about anywhere.   Ideal utility guy you can move around and keep in lineup many days, or start for someone else if injury happens...

 

I'd be curious to know what McKenna could do over a whole season.  He may not do a lot, but has a nice skill set and can play all 3 outfield spots.  Probably not enough contact ability or plate selectivity for an everyday guy, but fun to root for....

You would rather play McKenna over who? Hays, Mullins, Santander, Coswer, Kjerstad?

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Lastly, Westburg is already here and playing everyday. I think it is a mistake to place him in the same category as Ortiz. The Orioles could have given the spot to Ortiz since he was here first, but they appear to have chosen Westburg. SS (as much as some people/posters are resistant to the idea) appears to be Hollidays longterm. There is no real place for Ortiz to play regularly longterm.

It does appear the org likes Westburg over Ortiz.  Ortiz wasn’t given much runway whereas Westburg has.  Then again, Westburg go hits and on base immediately too.

I think the vast majority of people (at least here) see Jackson as the long term SS.  The question is who between now and then.  And maybe more importantly, how are the metrics weighted for SS?  Range?  Glove?  Arm?  OPS?  Depending on what’s valued Ortiz can be the answer at SS (or 2B) for the next X days/weeks/months/years until the Jackson Era begins.

[doccat]

31 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You would rather play McKenna over who? Hays, Mullins, Santander, Coswer, Kjerstad?

I wouldn’t play him over any of them.  Just curious what he’d do over a full year.   If I were a team in tank mode I’d acquire him and see what he does with a real chance to play.  His offensive upside certainly might be limited, but how do you improve your offensive game seeing MLB pitching once a week?

[7Mo]

I think wildcard is pretty close here. I don't share quite as much unbridled enthusiasm but looking at it from a standpoint that Elias must be pleased with year over year progress the last 2, and knowing he has a lot more coming next year, I can't see a lot of prospects traded in the next 30 days. 

I think he does have to look at it from the Tampa perspective over the last few years where they needed to move some prospects because they would become Rule 5 targets if they remained with the organization but that still lets him keep the names prominently floated here over the last year. Obviously it depends on who brings back what kind of value but I think how you would set the 40 man come Rule 5 draft dictates who is traded this month. 

I think we wind up adding 1-2 MLB relief pitcher(s) that aren't one of the big names. Depending on what analytics show them, and what they think they can do to help someone, I would expect more Pierce Johnson (not a name) than Scott Barlow (name) as an example. 

As many others mention, I think one of Ortiz/Mateo is a bridge to Holliday. I would think Ortiz has much greater trade value so even though I really believe in him, I think he's gone come Aug 1. 

If you can get decent value, I'd like to see Mountcastle and McKenna traded. If you trade Mountcastle, I can't see Urias traded this month. I'd love to see a value return for Mateo but I just don't believe it'll happen. 

Wildcard has more faith in Voth than I do but I'm optimistic by nature so I'll hope along with him. I tend to think Rodriguez needs more time than another month to reign in his command. Maybe Charles helps by late August. 

I don't see any way we're seriously in on a Corbin Burnes or Cease or that caliber. I tend to think we add one starter but I don't see Elias dealing more than 1-2 of our top 10 prospects to do so. And I can't see him dealing any significant prospect for a rental. He'll be looking for 2+ years of control I'd guess. 

I'm anxious to see what Elias does, although I wouldn't be surprised at all if it's not much. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, doccat said:

I wouldn’t play him over any of them.  Just curious what he’d do over a full year.   If I were a team in tank mode I’d acquire him and see what he does with a real chance to play.  His offensive upside certainly might be limited, but how do you improve your offensive game seeing MLB pitching once a week?

I think his talent suggest that he is a 4th/5th outfielder. The more he plays the more he will get exposed IMO.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

It does appear the org likes Westburg over Ortiz.  Ortiz wasn’t given much runway whereas Westburg has.  Then again, Westburg go hits and on base immediately too.

I think the vast majority of people (at least here) see Jackson as the long term SS.  The question is who between now and then.  And maybe more importantly, how are the metrics weighted for SS?  Range?  Glove?  Arm?  OPS?  Depending on what’s valued Ortiz can be the answer at SS (or 2B) for the next X days/weeks/months/years until the Jackson Era begins.

Looks to me like Gunnar can hold down SS until Holliday arrives. IMO we would be fine offensively and defensively with Gunnar at SS, Urias at 3B and Westburg at 2B. 

Ideally you would like to trade your vets and replace them with your young guys. But the problem is that our vets aren’t that valuable in trades and some have no value at all. 

Therefore, because we have so many young players/prospects and the one at A is an Uber prospect compared to the one at AAA. It seems rational to me to trade the one at AAA and try to extract the most value in order to help us acquire the pitcher that it is quite apparent to me that we need. 

IMO we have a couple of 2/3 type starters and 2 number 5 starters. That’s not a rotation slotted for success in the playoffs. In this series alone, look at what MIN has and we haven’t even faced their best 2 starting pitchers.

[banks703]

They’re already sliding and it isn’t the second half yet. 
 

They shit the bed on making moves to improve the team in the first half of the year. Elias has shown ZERO deviation from his/their/the plan. He will NOT do anything this year to improve their chances to compete this year. Bank on it. 
 

I posted in the Minn series thread - it’s a very real possibility that they go into the All-Star Break at only single digits above .500 and with the way they are playing right now, I think it’s certainly possible that they are on a double digit game losing streak. 
 

They suck right now. Plain and simple.