The fastest Orioles teams to reach 20 games over .500

[Frobby]

The O's reached a useful milestone last night, 20 games over .500.   If they played .500 ball the rest of the way, they'd finish 91-71 and that would probably (not definitely) put them in the playoffs.   That got me to wondering, which Orioles teams reached 20 games  over .500 the fastest, and how did their seasons go after that?   Did any of them fail to play .500 ball after reaching 20 games over?

The 2023 Orioles are, by my count, the 22nd Orioles team to reach 20+ games over .500, and the the 8th-fastest to get there.   The 7 teams ahead of them were (in order of earliest to reach 20 games over): 1969 (48 games), 1997 (50), 1966 (62), 1979 (64), 1970 (66), 1971 (66), and 1964 (72).   Six of those 7 teams went on to win the most games of any team in the American League, the only exception being the 1964 O's, who won 97 games but finished 2 games behind the Yankees and 1 behind the White Sox.  So, the 2023 O's are in pretty select company, though slower to get to 20 above than any of these.   All of the other 14 teams got to 20 games over much later than this year's O's.  Here’s a list of all O’s teams that have reached 20+ games over .500, in chronological order:

YEAR   #Games  Subs. Record  Final Record

1960   124          17-13                89-65

1961   130          20-12                95-67

1964    72          51-39                 97-65

1965   138         15-9                   94-68

1966    62          56-42                97-63

1968   116          23-23                91-71

1969    48          75-39               109-53

1970    66           66-30               108-54

1971    66           58-34                101-57

1973  124           25-13                  97-65

1974  162            0-0                     91-71

1975  152            4-3                     90-69

1977  118          28-15                    97-65

1978  158           1-2                       90-71

1979   64           60-35                102-57

1980  116          32-14                 100-62

1982  136          16-10                   94-68

1983  124          26-12                   98-64

1997   50            63-49                  98-64

2012  148            9-5                     93-69

2014  124            24-14                 96-66

2023   90             ??-??                  ??-??

As you can see, fate has been kind to the Orioles teams that managed to reach 20 games over .500.   All but one of the 21 of the previous teams to reach that mark during the season were able to finish at least 20 games over, the lone exception being the 1978 O’s, who only reached 20 games over in game 158 and went 1-2 the rest of the way.   The other team you could say was somewhat disappointing was the 1968 team, that hit 20 games over in Game 116 but only was able to go 23-23 the rest of the way.  Even so, that ’68 team was far behind the high-flying Tigers and they would have had to go something like 34-12 down the stretch to catch them.   Otherwise, all these teams acquitted themselves pretty well after hitting the 20 games over mark.   We can only hope that the 2023 team follows suit.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Frobby

[now]

I think that select list of top 7 fastest teams reflects really well the comparative quality of the those teams. I would rank them roughly in that order (especially after playing lots of Sims to find the same basic rank order). So #8 there is pretty select company, all right. I would even venture to say, that whole list presents a fair ranking of relative quality of all those teams. Here they are in rank order, by your fastest games to +20:

1969	48
1997	50
1966	62
1979	64
1970	66
1971	66
1964	72
2023	90
1968	116
1980	116
1977	118
1960	124
1973	124
1983	124
2014	124
1961	130
1982	136
1965	138
2012	148
1975	152
1978	158
1974	162

[baltfan]

Shoulda won it all in 1997

[Frobby]

Notably, this team got to +20 much faster than the 1983 World Champs did, or the 1973-74 AL East winners.  

[Filmstudy]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

The O's reached a useful milestone last night, 20 games over .500.   If they played .500 ball the rest of the way, they'd finish 91-71 and that would probably (not definitely) put them in the playoffs.   That got me to wondering, which Orioles teams reached 20 games  over .500 the fastest, and how did their seasons go after that?   Did any of them fail to play .500 ball after reaching 20 games over?

The 2023 Orioles are, by my count, the 22nd Orioles team to reach 20+ games over .500, and the the 8th-fastest to get there.   The 7 teams ahead of them were (in order of earliest to reach 20 games over): 1969 (48 games), 1997 (50), 1966 (62), 1979 (64), 1970 (66), 1971 (66), and 1964 (72).   Six of those 7 teams went on to win the most games of any team in the American League, the only exception being the 1964 O's, who won 97 games but finished 2 games behind the Yankees and 1 behind the White Sox.  So, the 2023 O's are in pretty select company, though slower to get to 20 above than any of these.   All of the other 14 teams got to 20 games over much later than this year's O's.  Here’s a list of all O’s teams that have reached 20+ games over .500, in chronological order:

YEAR   #Games  Subs. Record  Final Record

1960   124          17-13                89-65

1961   130          20-12                95-67

1964    72          51-39                 97-65

1965   138         15-9                   94-68

1966    62          56-42                97-63

1968   116          23-23                91-71

1969    48          75-39               109-53

1970    66           66-30               108-54

1971    66           58-34                101-57

1973  124           25-13                  97-65

1974  162            0-0                     91-71

1975  152            4-3                     90-69

1977  118          28-15                    97-65

1978  158           1-2                       90-71

1979   64           60-35                102-57

1980  116          32-14                 100-62

1982  136          16-10                   94-68

1983  124          26-12                   98-64

1997   50            63-49                  98-64

2012  148            9-5                     93-69

2014  124            24-14                 96-66

2023   90             ??-??                  ??-??

As you can see, fate has been kind to the Orioles teams that managed to reach 20 games over .500.   All but one of the 21 of the previous teams to reach that mark during the season were able to finish at least 20 games over, the lone exception being the 1978 O’s, who only reached 20 games over in game 158 and went 1-2 the rest of the way.   The other team you could say was somewhat disappointing was the 1968 team, that hit 20 games over in Game 116 but only was able to go 23-23 the rest of the way.  Even so, that ’68 team was far behind the high-flying Tigers and they would have had to go something like 34-12 down the stretch to catch them.   Otherwise, all these teams acquitted themselves pretty well after hitting the 20 games over mark.   We can only hope that the 2023 team follows suit.

Cool research/list.

For teams that first reach +20 any time in the first 130 games, I think it has probably been uncommon if not quite rare for such teams to finish below +20.  The reason (in part at least) is September effect where good teams play better and bad teams play worse due to the impact of the trade deadline and playing for the postseason rather than to audition talent in the many years prior to service-time manipulation and smaller Sept rosters.

Being in the AL East, the Orioles have had a chance to play against some of the all-time choking Red Sox teams.  Even that historic 2011 team reached +20 after 90 games (55-35) and was only -2 the rest of the way to fall out of the playoffs. 

I was sure the 1974 Red Sox would have been +20 at some point, but they topped out at +16 (70-54 on 8/23) before they went -10 the rest of the way.  The 63-65 Orioles ran them down with a 28-6 stretch drive to leave them in 3rd place, 8 back.

The 1978 Red Sox who were subjected to the great Yankees comeback reached +20 in game 52 (36-16) and still were 63-48 the rest of the way.

A broader set of playoff teams could possibly create a competitive environment where wins are harder to come by in September, but that September effect first postulated by Bill James is still happening and the current +20s don't seem to be in any danger of playing enough under .500 the rest of the way to finish below +20.  The Orioles are the team which makes me a little nervous for that claim, given they are only +21 now.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Filmstudy

[Daddy-O's]

That stretch from 1960 -1983 was incredible.

[tntoriole]

1969-1971 teams were the best I have seen. 

[WarehouseChatter]

Love the research/thread @Frobby! I was looking at this last night as well but didn’t go to this extent! Thanks for sharing.

[foxfield]

Thanks @Frobby, this is nice info and it's great company for the Orioles to be in.  It's also a very good reminder of what the Orioles and Elias claim to be trying to do...establish a long term winner.  Man those were the days.

[Frobby]

On 7/15/2023 at 8:24 PM, now said:

I think that select list of top 7 fastest teams reflects really well the comparative quality of the those teams. I would rank them roughly in that order (especially after playing lots of Sims to find the same basic rank order). So #8 there is pretty select company, all right. I would even venture to say, that whole list presents a fair ranking of relative quality of all those teams. Here they are in rank order, by your fastest games to +20:

1969	48
1997	50
1966	62
1979	64
1970	66
1971	66
1964	72
2023	90
1968	116
1980	116
1977	118
1960	124
1973	124
1983	124
2014	124
1961	130
1982	136
1965	138
2012	148
1975	152
1978	158
1974	162

Now here is a fun thread bump.  The 2024 team just tied the 1979 team as the 4th fastest Orioles team to reach 20 games over .500.  Very impressive company!

Edited June 9 by Frobby

[bpilktree]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Now here is a fun thread bump.  The 2024 team just tied the 1979 team as the 4th fastest Orioles team to reach 20 games over .500.  Very impressive company!

All that with a terrible bullpen, rotation with guys hurt and not going deep in games, an offense that can’t hit junk pitchers, struggles late in games after they get few runs in early innings, can’t hit a sac fly to save their life, a manager that favors the vets and lets young guys waste on the bench, a manager that takes out way to early and misuses the bullpen, a GM that cares more about prospect rankings then actually winning games this year, and an owner that won’t spend any money and is cheap(oh wait we can’t use that one anymore). I can’t wait til we start fixing those things we will win 120 games if we do.  

[Can_of_corn]

They also don't work the count enough.

[eddie83]

This may be the most talented Orioles team in my lifetime of watching. I’m not old enough to recall the 79-80 teams. 
 

1983 is the best team because of obvious reasons, that said this team is deeper. 

My top 10 -Using 82 as starting point- I do recall 81 season some also 

1)1983

2)2024- subject to change …

3)1997

4)2014/2023 tie for me  23 better overall season but 14 won a playoff series  

6)1982

7)1996

8)2012

9)2016

10)1989

 

[Moose Milligan]

50 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

All that with a terrible bullpen, rotation with guys hurt and not going deep in games, an offense that can’t hit junk pitchers, struggles late in games after they get few runs in early innings, can’t hit a sac fly to save their life, a manager that favors the vets and lets young guys waste on the bench, a manager that takes out way to early and misuses the bullpen, a GM that cares more about prospect rankings then actually winning games this year, and an owner that won’t spend any money and is cheap(oh wait we can’t use that one anymore). I can’t wait til we start fixing those things we will win 120 games if we do.  

Of all the grievances here, I think the GM caring about prospect rankings more than anything is my favorite. 

[Frobby]

By winning today to finish 91-71, the 2024 O’s avoided being only the second Orioles team out of 23 to reach 20 games over .500 during the year to finish below that figure.