A few thoughts 100 games in (62-38)

[Spy Fox]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are not ideally structured for the playoffs, but essentially the playoffs are a crapshoot and I’ll worry about that if and when we get there.  

One thing I think is better about this team than the 2012-16 teams in terms of playoff construction is this team is not overly reliant on home runs.  When the weather gets cold and the ball isn’t traveling as well, this team will still find ways to get on base and scratch out runs.  

 

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What is ideally structured for the playoffs, and how do ideally structured teams do in the playoffs compared to teams that have similar regular season W/L records but that are less than ideally structured?

Szymborski wrote about this last fall and looked into how teams with different attributes have performed in the postseason. The overall lesson was that a team's attributes other than general goodness don't clearly affect postseason success. But home run reliance was actually slightly positively correlated with postseason success. I saw him explain on Twitter that if this is a true influence and not just noise, it's because the ability to hit home runs is more stable than the ability to hit for average. 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Spy Fox

[TommyPickles]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What is ideally structured for the playoffs, and how do ideally structured teams do in the playoffs compared to teams that have similar regular season W/L records but that are less than ideally structured?

I haven't looked up any numbers to back this up, but teams with a true ace starting pitcher (or two) seem best structured for the postseason.

An ace being able to start 2 out of 5 games in a series, means they play a larger role than they do during the regular season. (They start 40% of the games, instead of the usual 20% of the games)

A lockdown closer is a huge factor too. The 2014 Royals come to mind as a team that rode the back end of their bullpen to a World Series birth. As much as I hated the Royals, that Holland/Davis/Herrera trio was one of the best ever. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What is ideally structured for the playoffs, and how do ideally structured teams do in the playoffs compared to teams that have similar regular season W/L records but that are less than ideally structured?

Sounds like something I would say!

Instinctively, I think there are two big differences between the playoffs and the regular season.  

1.  There are more off days, so having a good top of the rotation is more important than having five solid starters.  

2.  The weather is colder, so having ways of scoring other than hitting homers is important.  

Now, I certainly can think of teams that had great TOR pitching that repeatedly failed in the playoffs, and teams that won playoff series mostly by hitting a lot of homers.   Like I said, the playoffs are a crapshoot and a lot just depends on who gets hot or cold in a short series.  
 

 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I worry about too many aspects of this team

[Number5]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sounds like something I would say!

Instinctively, I think there are two big differences between the playoffs and the regular season.  

1.  There are more off days, so having a good top of the rotation is more important than having five solid starters.  

2.  The weather is colder, so having ways of scoring other than hitting homers is important.  

Now, I certainly can think of teams that had great TOR pitching that repeatedly failed in the playoffs, and teams that won playoff series mostly by hitting a lot of homers.   Like I said, the playoffs are a crapshoot and a lot just depends on who gets hot or cold in a short series.  
 

 

The greater number of off days also enable a team with shut-down late-inning relievers to use them in more games.  Just sayin'.

[Frobby]

Just now, Number5 said:

The greater number of off days also enable a team with shut-down late-inning relievers to use them in more games.  Just sayin'.

Yes, good point.  

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sounds like something I would say!

Instinctively, I think there are two big differences between the playoffs and the regular season.  

1.  There are more off days, so having a good top of the rotation is more important than having five solid starters.  

2.  The weather is colder, so having ways of scoring other than hitting homers is important.  

Now, I certainly can think of teams that had great TOR pitching that repeatedly failed in the playoffs, and teams that won playoff series mostly by hitting a lot of homers.   Like I said, the playoffs are a crapshoot and a lot just depends on who gets hot or cold in a short series.  

Sounds like something I'd say!

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Number5 said:

The greater number of off days also enable a team with shut-down late-inning relievers to use them in more games.  Just sayin'.

All these secret sauce in the playoffs arguments make sense on some level, but I've still never seen any analysis that says teams that do X, Y, or Z actually perform better in the postseason.

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Szymborski wrote about this last fall and looked into how teams with different attributes have performed in the postseason. The overall lesson was that a team's attributes other than general goodness don't clearly affect postseason success. But home run reliance was actually slightly positively correlated with postseason success. I saw him explain on Twitter that if this is a true influence and not just noise, it's because the ability to hit home runs is more stable than the ability to hit for average. 

Exactly!

[btdart20]

The team is a team.  The sum of the parts is greater than they are individually. 

Hyde attempts to play to their individual strengths while minimizing their weaknesses for the good of the team.  Whether it's playing Mateo for the GB pitchers, playing some platoons, rotating thru the IF guys, pinch-hitting, lucking into a sacrifice bunt, patience for a guy to work through some bad luck (i.e. Frazier's Babip and Mounty's HH%/various x-stats), rookie rollout in a competitive environment, or whatever it takes...  As @Bahama O's Fan said, their bench is top of class and allows Hyde to cover quite a few different scenarios.  This is a full portfolio of risk reduction. 

Heading into the season, we anticipated our positions of the least amount of depth are C and CF.  So far, we're managing without our top shelf CF.  Getting a healthy Mullins back will be big!

The rotation is solid with no real weakness 1-5.  No true #1 (yet), but no real #5 either.  

The bullpen is heavily reliant on Bautista to lock in the wins.  And so far, he's proven to have broad shoulders to carry the load and having a heck of a season!  

The most exciting part of the team is that we're getting better, especially offensively.  Not just with potentially bringing in new talent, but with our existing guys getting better too!  Gunnar, Adley, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Grayson, Akin?, Means?

We have prospect capital and motive to raise the ceiling.  (And we have MLB capital to scratch some itches too.)  IMO, the biggest unknown is how far up the prospect food chain is Elias comfortable dealing.  The ARZ GM worded his trade deadline approach something like "aggressive, maybe even ultra-aggressive... but not reckless".  If the goal is living in interesting times, we're living them now!

This team is a force to be reckoned with now and will be into the playoffs.  And I think that's true with or without any big deals.

[casadeozo]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m still not convinced that they go far in the playoffs. 
 

I worry about too many aspects of this team when competing against the best teams in the spotlight.

I do think some of those worries can be alleviated with the deadline and just improvement by the young hitters but need to see it first.

What is your biggest worry? I assume middle relief is near the top

[Number5]

59 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Szymborski wrote about this last fall and looked into how teams with different attributes have performed in the postseason. The overall lesson was that a team's attributes other than general goodness don't clearly affect postseason success. But home run reliance was actually slightly positively correlated with postseason success. I saw him explain on Twitter that if this is a true influence and not just noise, it's because the ability to hit home runs is more stable than the ability to hit for average. 

I wonder if they were actually measuring home run reliance versus hitting home runs.  By that I mean it would make sense to me that the teams that actually hit greater numbers of home runs in the playoffs probably win more postseason games, but I'm not sure that necessarily means that the offensive philosophy of those teams was more reliant on home runs.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Szymborski wrote about this last fall and looked into how teams with different attributes have performed in the postseason. The overall lesson was that a team's attributes other than general goodness don't clearly affect postseason success. But home run reliance was actually slightly positively correlated with postseason success. I saw him explain on Twitter that if this is a true influence and not just noise, it's because the ability to hit home runs is more stable than the ability to hit for average. 

Thanks for posting this.  It’s very informative and should be cited the next 10,000 time this subject comes up.  

[Oriole1940]

I worry that the lack of 1 or even 2 Ace Starters will rear its ugly head in the playoffs.  I fear that you cannot hide the not having this  kind of a team for those games.

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

My first thought is, I never would have expected the 2023 team to win 62 of its first 100 games.

My second thought is, I’m amazed how consistent this team has been.  They’ve had four consecutive winning months.   In my thread where I track their performance every ten games, they’ve only had one 10-game segment where they were under .500, at 4-6.   And, as we know, they haven’t been swept in a series in over a year.   

My third thought is, please don’t wake me up from this sweet dream.  
 

It legitimately feels like we are living in an alternate reality.  It’s been so fun following the team this year.