Colton Cowser 2023

[TheWall]

13 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I have genuine concerns for Cowser going forward to the point that I'd seriously consider moving him.  He's not as fast as I would have hoped, and isn't an elite defender, or even an average one.  Generally for younger guys that are struggling out of the gate with the bat, I want to see them contribute with the glove or show some athleticism, and Cowser isn't doing that.  His defense and speed mean that he's probably relegated to a corner outfield spot or DH, and while he's obviously going to improve from here on out with the bat, the early returns on his performance are more than a little concerning given his lack of premium defensive value.

I haven't seen anything from him that has indicated he'd ever need to be relegated to a DH role. His defense hasn't look fantastic and he probably isn't a CF long term, but I never really expected him to be. 

The bit about needing to see plus defensive contributions from struggling rookies seems really off-base. Not every top prospect offers a plus glove. Gunnar was a negative defensively while he was struggling since his throws were off, but that didn't mean he couldn't be an elite player. Are you going to give up on Kjerstad or Mayo if they struggle in their first 60 PAs, because they are bat-first prospects? 

[Hallas]

8 minutes ago, TheWall said:

I haven't seen anything from him that has indicated he'd ever need to be relegated to a DH role. His defense hasn't look fantastic and he probably isn't a CF long term, but I never really expected him to be. 

The bit about needing to see plus defensive contributions from struggling rookies seems really off-base. Not every top prospect offers a plus glove. Gunnar was a negative defensively while he was struggling since his throws were off, but that didn't mean he couldn't be an elite player. Are you going to give up on Kjerstad or Mayo if they struggle in their first 60 PAs, because they are bat-first prospects? 

 

Henderson played SS and 3B competently even with some struggles with his arm.  At least he's playing an elite position.

 

If Kjerstad and Mayo don't hit even a little bit, then yes, I'd be scrutinizing their performance and possibly looking to move on.  Even over small samples, if you can't out-hit a pitcher, yes you may be getting unlucky but even in the rosiest possible scenario, you also have other issues.  If they're hitting like Mateo I'd definitely give them more time to figure it out.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Hallas

[TheWall]

Just now, Hallas said:

 

Henderson played SS and 3B competently even with some struggles with his arm.  At least he's playing an elite position.

 

If Kjerstad and Mayo don't hit even a little bit, then yes, I'd be scrutinizing their performance and possibly looking to move on.  Even over small samples, if you can't out-hit a pitcher, yes you may be getting unlucky but you also have other issues.  If they're hitting like Mateo I'd definitely give them more time to figure it out.

It just seems wild to me that you'd be considering moving on from elite prospects after 60 PAs regardless of how they go. I'd assume there is about a 0% chance our front office (or any other competent org) shares that view. Short sample size + a rookie adjusting to a new level means things aren't always going to be pretty. 

[Malike]

Everyone needs to realize the team is not going to hit on every prospect, no matter where they are ranked. Some are going to disappoint or even completely bust. I'm not saying that's Cowser, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.

Jorge Mateo was a top-30 prospect and ahead of Aaron Judge.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Malike

[G54377]

Cowser was always a LF/RF in my eyes. I think it was optimistic to think he was a longterm CF. Besides we have Mullins, Hays, and eventually Bradfield for CF. I don't think we've seen enough of Cowser yet to really see how his speed plays. He probably isn't someone that's going to steal a ton of bases in the majors. He stole some in the minors, but I always think steals in the minors don't translate well unless you are really swiping bags. I think he's good for maybe 10-15 a year at best in the majors if he plays everyday. If we end up with some other combination of OF's (Mullins, Hays, Kjerstad, Bradfield, Beavers, Fabian, etc) down the road Cowser can be traded or a 4th OF.

[btdart20]

36 minutes ago, Malike said:

Everyone needs to realize the team is not going to hit on every prospect, no matter where they are ranked. Some are going to disappoint or even completely bust. I'm not saying that's Cowser, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.

Jorge Mateo was a top-30 prospect and ahead of Aaron Judge.

Agreed in general.  

We’re not there yet + there’s a need for an OF now + sometimes you have to grind through the mountain + there’s not a pressing need to maximize every single PA now = no time like the present to give him some run.

If he’s not measuring up to the Sigbot’s matrix and the margin for error is growing thin, Cowser will be in AAA when Cedric and Hicks are back.  I hope Cowser makes it a tough decision!

[Malike]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed in general.  

We’re not there yet + there’s a need for an OF now + sometimes you have to grind through the mountain + there’s not a pressing need to maximize every single PA now = no time like the present to give him some run.

If he’s not measuring up to the Sigbot’s matrix and the margin for error is growing thin, Cowser will be in AAA when Cedric and Hicks are back.  I hope Cowser makes it a tough decision!

We're certainly not there yet, and I'm not suggesting that Cowser is a bust, but it happens, a lot more than it doesn't (I'd guess). I'm not in a position right now to dig into the numbers.

[webbrick2010]

Wow I had to go back to check the stats

People are making these damming (mostly) assessments based on 52 ML AB's

Folks should all quit their jobs and sign on to evaluate ML talent. No need to waste anymore time on Cowser. If these smart people were available in 1981 could have shortened Cal Ripkens career by 20 years.

[frankwhite]

I hope Colton gets it together. I need more time before I start thinking he will be a bust. But, the O's fighting for 1st and the time is now he him to produce. If he keeps this up until Mullins/Hicks comes back he should be sent back down to Norfolk. 

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Wow I had to go back to check the stats

People are making these damming (mostly) assessments based on 52 ML AB's

Folks should all quit their jobs and sign on to evaluate ML talent. No need to waste anymore time on Cowser. If these smart people were available in 1981 could have shortened Cal Ripkens career by 20 years.

What is one "damming" (sic) assessment that has been made in this thread? 

[Baltimorecuse]

27 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Wow I had to go back to check the stats

People are making these damming (mostly) assessments based on 52 ML AB's

Folks should all quit their jobs and sign on to evaluate ML talent. No need to waste anymore time on Cowser. If these smart people were available in 1981 could have shortened Cal Ripkens career by 20 years.

I'm basing my opinion on the way he swings the bat.  When I said it, I didn't know he couldn't field, either.  He's a warning track hitter.  

BTW:  I've only questioned two players ever.  I didn't see how Frazier fit into the development picture, and Cowser.  I thought Mountcastle and Grayson were having psychological issues, but the minor league stints appear to have helped the both.  

If Cowser proves me wrong, you can make fun of me.  

Edited August 4, 2023 by Baltimorecuse
add info

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Everyone needs to realize the team is not going to hit on every prospect, no matter where they are ranked. Some are going to disappoint or even completely bust. I'm not saying that's Cowser, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.

Jorge Mateo was a top-30 prospect and ahead of Aaron Judge.

Absolutely true that people generally underestimate the likelihood of prospects not making it in the majors, or making it to the majors but not being nearly as good as they project to be. 

That being said, the success rate for position player prospects who have MLB-ready defensive value and huge age-adjusted hitting performances in AAA is quite high. Probably lower than I expect if you did an analysis of it, but still high. The Orioles happen to have a lot of prospects/recent graduates that fit that description, including Cowser.

It’s the pitchers and lower level hitting prospects that have much higher bust rates. For instance, Jorge Mateo hit well in AA as a 22 year old but then had over 1000 PAs at AAA where he was a pretty awful hitter. 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Wow I had to go back to check the stats

People are making these damming (mostly) assessments based on 52 ML AB's

Folks should all quit their jobs and sign on to evaluate ML talent. No need to waste anymore time on Cowser. If these smart people were available in 1981 could have shortened Cal Ripkens career by 20 years.

 

The 52 ML at bats have been enough to crash his ZIPS projections.  He was originally projected as being at around 1.8 wins,  and his ROS projection is 0.1 WAR over 30 games played, with a .010 drop in his wOBA.

 

Look it's possible, probable even, that Cowser has a nice major league career.  But in this moment, in a pennant race, I would rather go for volatility and hope that Kjerstad sticks.  Cowser might figure it out, but I wouldn't bet on that happening this year.  I could be convinced that putting him out there for trade bait is a bad idea, but I definitely think we need to move from him this year and try to get production out of someone else.  If you want to take his double yesterday as a sign that maybe he's figured something out, okay, sure, but he better be putting up some great PAs over the next week or so to change my mind.   His leash should be quite short at this point.

 

My bar for a prospect showing something isn't terribly high.  60 plate appearances may not be a lot, but I also expect you to perform better than a pitcher.  It's not like his statcast batted ball data is terribly promising either.  He's pounding the ball into the dirt and not really making hard contact.

 

Cowser is getting a tad unlucky; I went through his game logs and he's got by my count 5 batted balls with an over .500 expected BA that he hit right at someone.  But it's not nearly enough to overcome that he's also been bad a lot.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Hallas

[RZNJ]

He’s been terrible.  He’s going to be good.  That is all.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I'm basing my opinion on the way he swings the bat.  When I said it, I didn't know he couldn't field, either.  He's a warning track hitter.  

BTW:  I've only questioned two players ever.  I didn't see how Frazier fit into the development picture, and Cowser.  I thought Mountcastle and Grayson were having psychological issues, but the minor league stints appear to have helped the both.  

If Cowser proves me wrong, you can make fun of me.  

Saying that Cowser can't field is a serious overreaction to a couple of plays.