Which of these pitchers belong in the Hall of Fame?

[Lt Melmo]

I'd really like to see the case against Pedro. Really. Sideburns, you have the spotlight.

[Moose Milligan]

I'd really like to see the case against Pedro. Really. Sideburns, you have the spotlight.

Seriously. I hope it was a joke or something.

If we were HoF voters Sideburns would be the guy who would be holding someone like Ripken back from a 100% vote.

[TyCobb]

Seriously. I hope it was a joke or something.

If we were HoF voters Sideburns would be the guy who would be holding someone like Ripken back from a 100% vote.

And Ruth, Cobb, Mays....

[TyCobb]

In other words, Smoltz would have seen, in all likelihood, a rise in his ERA if he had been in the AL. ERA+ doesn't take that into account.

It looks at the league average and compares that to your ERA.

The AL usually has a .15-.30 difference in ERA(obviously higher) than the NL.

However, pitchers coming from the NL to the AL usually see an increase of .50.

So, Smoltz's ERA+, had he been in the AL his whole career, would have likely been worse than Mussina's.

As it is, they are almost the same anyway and for you to say Smoltz is a lock and Mussina was just an above average pitcher is not backed up by any stats.

I don't really know what to believe.

But again Smoltz never really had a bad season. His Rookie season the only time in his career where he had a below average season(when his ERA+ <100). Then when he turned 28, 10 of the past 12 seasons his ERA+ was above 130 which is insane.

Having looked at Moose's stats closely he is a little closer than I thought in making the HOF, but in my mind still not good enough. His Post 32 years have been great season to average season switching off constantly.

[Sports Guy]

I don't really know what to believe.

But again Smoltz never really had a bad season. His Rookie season the only time in his career where he had a below average season(when his ERA+ <100). Then when he turned 28, 10 of the past 12 seasons his ERA+ was above 130 which is insane.

Having looked at Moose's stats closely he is a little closer than I thought in making the HOF, but in my mind still not good enough. His Post 32 years have been great season to average season switching off constantly.

So, an ERA+ of 127 is a sure fire HOFer but an ERA+ of 123 isn't?

Mussina has had a WARP3 of 8 or higher 8 times....Smoltz? 3 times.

Mussina doesn't have the ring or as much postseason dominance but overall Mussina has a better resume IMO.

[TyCobb]

So, an ERA+ of 127 is a sure fire HOFer but an ERA+ of 123 isn't?

Mussina has had a WARP3 of 8 or higher 8 times....Smoltz? 3 times.

Mussina doesn't have the ring or as much postseason dominance but overall Mussina has a better resume IMO.

I don't know how WARP3 is calculated, but I disagree.

Smoltz becoming a dominate closer and a dominate starter makes him a sure fire HOFer.

[66-70-83-??]

I don't know how WARP3 is calculated, but I disagree.

Smoltz becoming a dominate closer and a dominate starter makes him a sure fire HOFer.

Neither do I. Neither does SG.

No one does, except BP.

It is proprietary.

You just have to have "faith" in whatever BP puts out, I guess.

Many in the SABR community don't use BP stats for that very reason (proprietary). Another is the fact that they are constantly revising their own proprietary stats. Can you be sure they got it right in this revision ?

Why use a stat (let alone throw it around as "proof" or "evidence") if you have no idea in how it is calculated ?

What assumptions or bias are put into the formula ? Why won't they offer up their methodology for review and validation ?

Without transparency how can fans trust their methodology ?

About Smoltz- I agree. Being both a great starter, then a dominant closer, then back to a great SP- puts him ahead of Mussina.

I think Mussina falls just a tad short, but I wouldn't cry or lose any sleep if he was voted in. He is a classic borderline case.

[Sports Guy]

Of Moose had the same stats but was here for his whole career, i bet all of you would say he is a HOFer.

I don't know how you can look at Smoltz and say he is definitely in but have Mussina fall short...The stats don't back that up.

And Mussina did it in the AL to boot.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Throw away objectivity when it comes to Schilling, I have no doubt he's going to the hall. Most sportswriters vote based on memory and there's no moment more glorified than the bloody sock.

I'll throw back a slightly different question, do you all think Schilling WILL get into the hall of fame? (not whether he deserves it).

[rolliefingers]

Okay, who didn't vote for Pedro? Seriously?

Probably one of Amber's friends.

[rolliefingers]

BTW: Everyone but Wells and Brown.

SG is right, if Mussina had remained an Oriole his whole career and put up the same numbers as he did in NY, we'd be pimping him for the Hall harder than hell. Total sour grapes. He's a HOFer, w/o a doubt.

[66-70-83-??]

Throw away objectivity when it comes to Schilling, I have no doubt he's going to the hall. Most sportswriters vote based on memory and there's no moment more glorified than the bloody sock.

I'll throw back a slightly different question, do you all think Schilling WILL get into the hall of fame? (not whether he deserves it).

????

I don't know ? If I had to say YES or No- I would NO. Schilling doesn't make it.

I don't think he has done enough to get in. Close, but no cigar.

But, then again- I thought Jack Morris would get a lot more support. His stats to some are lacking too, but he had some big postseason moments too.

Who can forget the 10 inning gem in the WS ? That is comparable to the "sock game" in my opinion.

I know Jack's career ERA is held against him, but he was one of the first big-time SP's to pitch his entire career against a DH. It just seemed like he was always winning big games, always on the leaderboards in CG, W, SHO, K's, etc.... He was respected and feared by the opponents.

[Sports Guy]

????

I don't know ? If I had to say YES or No- I would NO. Schilling doesn't make it.

I don't think he has done enough to get in. Close, but no cigar.

But, then again- I thought Jack Morris would get a lot more support. His stats to some are lacking too, but he had some big postseason moments too.

Who can forget the 10 inning gem in the WS ? That is comparable to the "sock game" in my opinion.

I know Jack's career ERA is held against him, but he was one of the first big-time SP's to pitch his entire career against a DH. It just seemed like he was always winning big games, always on the leaderboards in CG, W, SHO, K's, etc.... He was respected and feared by the opponents.

So, you think Morris is in but not Mussina?

Mussina's WARP3 is over 30 wins higher than Morris. And his "traditional" stats are much better and Moose pitched in a better offensive era.

[mweb]

BTW: Everyone but Wells and Brown.

SG is right, if Mussina had remained an Oriole his whole career and put up the same numbers as he did in NY, we'd be pimping him for the Hall harder than hell. Total sour grapes. He's a HOFer, w/o a doubt.

How is Mussina a HOF'er without a doubt, but Brown isn't worthy? They've both pitched about the same amount of innings, Brown has a 127 ERA+ to Mussina's 123, Brown has the better peak, should have at least one Cy Young, and has one a WS.

[Eight]

Of Moose had the same stats but was here for his whole career, i bet all of you would say he is a HOFer.

I don't know how you can look at Smoltz and say he is definitely in but have Mussina fall short...The stats don't back that up.

And Mussina did it in the AL to boot.

Mussina is just criminally underrated in Hall of Fame discussions. This is how he ranked in VORP (ML/AL) from '92 to '03

92: 1/1

93: 65/31 (only 25 starts)

94: 2/1 (behind only Greg Maddux)

95: 3/2 (behind only Randy Johnson in the AL)

96: 28/15

97: 13/8

98: 13/8

99: 8/4

00: 5/2 (behind only Pedro Martinez in the AL)

01: 5/3

02: 30/18

03: 11/6

That's an incredible run. Deserving of two Cy Young awards, five seasons as a top three pitcher in the AL, and nine seasons as a top 10 AL pitcher.

He's going to finish with 250 wins, probably more. Only 7 of the 44 guys with that many wins aren't in the Hall (counting Glavine/Maddux/Clemens/Johnson as shoe-ins). Combine that with a .635 winning percentage and he's one of about ten guys in the top 50 in wins and winning percentage.

Ten seasons in the AL top ten in ERA+ and 8 seasons in the AL top ten in innings pitched.

A staggering 14 seasons in the the AL top ten in fewest BB/9 and 14 seasons in the top ten in K/BB plus ten in the top ten in K/9.

He has a 3.40 ERA in 22 career postseason games, with an almost historic performance in 1997, ruined only by our inability to score runs.

Mike Mussina would raise the standards of the Hall, not lower it. He should absolutely be inducted.