Which of these pitchers belong in the Hall of Fame?

[mweb]

Slam dunks: Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez

Just good enough: Smoltz, Glavine

Not quite good enough: Mussina, Schilling

No: Brown, Wells

Dave, it seems like ERA+ is your favorite stat with pitchers, so here you go:

Pedro: 160, 2,645 innings

Clemens: 145, 4,883

RJ: 137, 3,855

Maddux: 134, 4,747

Smoltz: 127, 3,288(ERA+ is helped by time in relief, obviously IP is hurt)

Brown: 127, 3,256

Schilling: 126, 3,204

Mussina: 123, 3,310

Glavine: 119, 4,287

So I curious as to why Smoltz is in, Schilling is not quite, and Brown is a flat out no. Can't get much closer in ERA+ and innings pitched. Brown actually had the best peak of the 3.

[mweb]

Everyone but Moose and Brown. Brown, I just don't think he was ever that level. Just on the fringe of it.

Moose isn't sour grapes, it has to do with no Cy Young, no championship, no 20-win seasons.

And those are why I included Wells. Wild guess off the top of my head, he probably has 200-250 wins. Not an "automatic" number. And no Cy Youngs, but he has the rest, 20 games, championships with multiple teams, perfect game.

Brown was greater during his peak then Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, and Wells. Wells is easily the worst pitcher on this list. Only a ERA+ of 108, and a WARP3 of 96.

[TGO]

Okay, who didn't vote for Pedro? Seriously?

[scOtt]

Brown was greater during his peak then Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, and Wells. Wells is easily the worst pitcher on this list. Only a ERA+ of 108, and a WARP3 of 96.

It's just that to me. Brown at his peak... And then he got a fat contract and 27 injuries and was never heard from again.

[mweb]

It's just that to me. Brown at his peak... And then he got a fat contract and 27 injuries and was never heard from again.

Very far from the truth: http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/brownke01.shtml

Look at his seasons with the Dodgers, yes, in 2001-2002, he only made 29 starts, but he made at least 32 starts his other 3 years, and pitched extremely well. That contract did take him to his age 40 season, it was just a stupid contract, you can't expect him to be good to great and always healthy for 7 years that late in his career.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Okay, who didn't vote for Pedro? Seriously?

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=1971

It was...Sideburns!

[davearm]

Dave, it seems like ERA+ is your favorite stat with pitchers, so here you go:

Pedro: 160, 2,645 innings

Clemens: 145, 4,883

RJ: 137, 3,855

Maddux: 134, 4,747

Smoltz: 127, 3,288(ERA+ is helped by time in relief, obviously IP is hurt)

Brown: 127, 3,256

Schilling: 126, 3,204

Mussina: 123, 3,310

Glavine: 119, 4,287

So I curious as to why Smoltz is in, Schilling is not quite, and Brown is a flat out no. Can't get much closer in ERA+ and innings pitched. Brown actually had the best peak of the 3.

I didn't even look at ERA+ for these guys.

I looked only at Bill James' various HOF predictors (black ink test, gray ink test, etc) and their offshoots.

Those predictors don't give Brown much of a shot, but Glavine, Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling show as borderline cases.

My initial inclination would be to exclude the borderline cases, but I put Glavine and Smoltz in since they were such vital pieces of the Braves' historic run of division titles.

[Bosibus]

Okay, who didn't vote for Pedro? Seriously?

I voted for him,

But the better question is who voted for Wells.

[mweb]

I didn't even look at ERA+ for these guys.

I looked only at Bill James' various HOF predictors (black ink test, gray ink test, etc) and their offshoots.

Those predictors don't give Brown much of a shot, but Glavine, Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling show as borderline cases.

My initial inclination would be to exclude the borderline cases, but I put Glavine and Smoltz in since they were such vital pieces of the Braves' historic run of division titles.

I certainly woudn't base my decision on those HOF predictors. I would look at one's stats and make the call on my own. However, he's not that bad in everthing but the Black Ink.

So besides the HOF predictors, why is Brown not even close while Schilling is and Smoltz is in?

[Frobby]

So far, these results have pretty much followed what I expected, with the following exceptions:

1. I hadn't expected such unanimous support for Smoltz, even though I voted for him.

2. I hadn't expected such uniform non-support for Wells, even though I didn't vote for him.

I have to say that if fewer than 50% of Hangouters believe Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame, then he is going to have a very uphill battle convincing 75% of the sportswriters who vote.

[mweb]

So far, these results have pretty much followed what I expected, with the following exceptions:

1. I hadn't expected such unanimous support for Smoltz, even though I voted for him.

2. I hadn't expected such uniform non-support for Wells, even though I didn't vote for him.

I have to say that if fewer than 50% of Hangouters believe Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame, then he is going to have a very uphill battle convincing 75% of the sportswriters who vote.

I do think it's odd that basically everyone thinks Smoltz should be in, but few think Brown should be in. Reputation counts for a lot I guess.

I'm not sure about that last part Frobby, many on here hate Moose, plus some who voted didn't even look at stats and/or don't really think about such matters.

[Sports Guy]

So far, these results have pretty much followed what I expected, with the following exceptions:

1. I hadn't expected such unanimous support for Smoltz, even though I voted for him.

2. I hadn't expected such uniform non-support for Wells, even though I didn't vote for him.

I have to say that if fewer than 50% of Hangouters believe Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame, then he is going to have a very uphill battle convincing 75% of the sportswriters who vote.

Why not? Smoltz has had a great career, both regular season and postseason.

His career WARP3 is almost as good as Eckersley and Smoltz(2 guys who started and closed) isn't done yet.

I don't see an argument against Smoltz.

BTW, if Mussina had the same exact career with us as he has had with the Yankees(ie never went to NY), i bet 98% of the hangouters would think he is a HOFer...SOur grapes IMO.

[Frobby]

Why not? Smoltz has had a great career, both regular season and postseason.

His career WARP3 is almost as good as Eckersley and Smoltz(2 guys who started and closed) isn't done yet.

I don't see an argument against Smoltz.

BTW, if Mussina had the same exact career with us as he has had with the Yankees(ie never went to NY), i bet 98% of the hangouters would think he is a HOFer...SOur grapes IMO.

Both your points are valid. I guess I just put the other 5 guys (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Martinez) on a higher plane than Smoltz and so I expected he'd get fewer votes than them. He's a clear HOF'er in my mind, but I thought some of the tough graders might exclude him. BTW, I can't believe someone voted against Pedro.

[mweb]

Why not? Smoltz has had a great career, both regular season and postseason.

His career WARP3 is almost as good as Eckersley and Smoltz(2 guys who started and closed) isn't done yet.

I don't see an argument against Smoltz.

BTW, if Mussina had the same exact career with us as he has had with the Yankees(ie never went to NY), i bet 98% of the hangouters would think he is a HOFer...SOur grapes IMO.

Yeah, Smoltz should get in, his ability to pitch great late in his career is much better than most, and that's what gets him in imo. His peak isn't that impressive for a HOF candidate, and his career numbers besides the saves are quite similiar to Schilling, Brown, and Mussina. He's obviously had a lot of postseason success, but only one WS, so I don't think he gets any edge over Schilling in that regard, and not that much of an edge over Brown there.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, Smoltz should get in, his ability to pitch great late in his career is much better than most, and that's what gets him in imo. His peak isn't that impressive for a HOF candidate, and his career numbers besides the saves are quite similiar to Schilling, Brown, and Mussina. He's obviously had a lot of postseason success, but only one WS, so I don't think he gets any edge over Schilling in that regard, and not that much of an edge over Brown there.

Does Smoltz still hold the record for most wins in postseason history?

He has an ERA around 2.50 in the playoffs as well.