My 2023 second half and full regular season report card

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Yeah, Mullins may have been hurt by a weaker second half after the red hot first half. I don't remember how long you've been doing these but by WAR Davis '13 and Manny '15/16 might have been A+ level. 

I’m sure I’ve done these for more than a couple of years, but when I did a search, the oldest I saw was from 2019.   I have no doubt that if I was doing these in 2016, then I gave Zach Britton an A+.   

[Yossarian]

Are these grades measuring the player against a league average player at the position (e.g. 1Bman, backup catcher, utility infielder, etc.), or against your expectation of the player coming into the year (presumably based on their performance in recent years and their salary?)?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Are these grades measuring the player against a league average player at the position (e.g. 1Bman, backup catcher, utility infielder, etc.), or against your expectation of the player coming into the year (presumably based on their performance in recent years and their salary?)?

The latter, although salary doesn’t really enter into it.  

[Yossarian]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The latter, although salary doesn’t really enter into it.  

Thanks.  One more question:  a "C" grade would mean the player met expectations, nothing more?  The equivalent of "meh"?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

Thanks.  One more question:  a "C" grade would mean the player met expectations, nothing more?  The equivalent of "meh"?

Read this post.  I’m a slightly easier grader than that, and I do adjust some for how good a player is, so it’s not solely vs. expectations, but mostly.  A mediocre player meets expectations, he’s probably getting a C+.   A very good player meets expectations, he’s probably getting a B or even a B+ in some cases.  But nobody really gets an A without exceeding expectations.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m sure I’ve done these for more than a couple of years, but when I did a search, the oldest I saw was from 2019.   I have no doubt that if I was doing these in 2016, then I gave Zach Britton an A+.   

That's a great one. Really puts in perspective how great Bradish has been. I severely underestimated him.

[SilverRocket]

On 10/4/2023 at 3:44 PM, Hallas said:

This is kind of crazy to me.  He was like, the 5th ranked prospect in the system, and was a tail-end top-100 overall guy, and he played like an above average regular from the second he got called up.  I'm not sure how you can reasonably expect more out of him.

5th in a stacked system. He was putting up a .939 OPS in AAA with 18 HR and people raving about his exit velocities. I was hoping his OPS would be more like .770 than .715, and more than 3 HR. Mostly it's the HR power where I was expecting a bit more. His xHR was 4.8, so he did get a bit unlucky and he's not in a great ballpark for that.

I'm still optimistic about his future and as I said, I'd give him a C+. My grade would be a B- if his OPS were .750 and a B if his OPS were .770. I think part of it is that we have better prospects incoming, and if Westburg ends up being the one dealt in the offseason for some pitching, I wouldn't be too sad about it.

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

5th in a stacked system. He was putting up a .939 OPS in AAA with 18 HR and people raving about his exit velocities. I was hoping his OPS would be more like .770 than .715, and more than 3 HR. Mostly it's the HR power where I was expecting a bit more. His xHR was 4.8, so he did get a bit unlucky and he's not in a great ballpark for that.

I'm still optimistic about his future and as I said, I'd give him a C+. My grade would be a B- if his OPS were .750 and a B if his OPS were .770. I think part of it is that we have better prospects incoming, and if Westburg ends up being the one dealt in the offseason for some pitching, I wouldn't be too sad about it.

 

The robo ump tilted way in favor of hitters in AAA, so .939 isn't really what you think it is.  The average OPS in the International League was .795, versus .734 in MLB.  Without even factoring any minor league equivalencies that knocks it down to an equivalent OPS of .867.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

5th in a stacked system. He was putting up a .939 OPS in AAA with 18 HR and people raving about his exit velocities. I was hoping his OPS would be more like .770 than .715, and more than 3 HR. Mostly it's the HR power where I was expecting a bit more. His xHR was 4.8, so he did get a bit unlucky and he's not in a great ballpark for that.

I'm still optimistic about his future and as I said, I'd give him a C+. My grade would be a B- if his OPS were .750 and a B if his OPS were .770. I think part of it is that we have better prospects incoming, and if Westburg ends up being the one dealt in the offseason for some pitching, I wouldn't be too sad about it.

Your expectations for Westburg in his rookie year were pretty high.  1.2 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR in 54 starts, 68 games, about 1/3 of the playing time in the field.  I did expect a bit more power, but a little less on defense.