Another very good article from Brit

[Jagwar]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

 First, I 100% agree that the pitching staff needs to be bolstered.

That said, outside of Cano I'm not really sure who on the pitching staff overachieved.  Bradish took a big step forward but I think a lot of that was due to adjustments.  Rodriguez was a top prospect.  Kremer and Wells basically replicated last year.  Gibson was about what we thought he'd be.

I think most of us expected Perez to take a step back, which he did, but I'm encouraged with how he ended the year.

I guess ultimately I don't look at this staff and think wow, we just had a flukey year where everyone exceeded expectations.  Again, outside of Cano.

Oddly enough, I'll go into the offseason thinking that the O's need to either sign or trade prospects for a #2-3 starter, a back end reliever, and a big bat. That's essentially the same thing I thought last year. 

The difference is that IMO "liftoff" has already happened. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

 First, I 100% agree that the pitching staff needs to be bolstered.

That said, outside of Cano I'm not really sure who on the pitching staff overachieved.  Bradish took a big step forward but I think a lot of that was due to adjustments.  Rodriguez was a top prospect.  Kremer and Wells basically replicated last year.  Gibson was about what we thought he'd be.

I think most of us expected Perez to take a step back, which he did, but I'm encouraged with how he ended the year.

I guess ultimately I don't look at this staff and think wow, we just had a flukey year where everyone exceeded expectations.  Again, outside of Cano.

The peripheral stats say Kremer overachieved, same with Wells although Wells is a bit of an unknown because of the sample size not  being as large and the back and forth between the pen, rotation and minors. In other words, I think it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what he is.

Cano overachieved, as you said. Coloumbe overachieved relative to what he has done but his 2023 numbers suggest he could do it going forward. Again, he’s an unknown and far from a guarantee.

I feel good about Bradish, GRod and Means for 2024.

I feel good that Wells can provide some kind of role out of the pen and be, at the  very least, a solid reliever. I feel ok about Perez.

Hall and what his role is going forward is still a mystery to me although he should have some role here unless he is traded.

Coloumbe and Cano obviously are in the pen next year but how good will they be?

To me, you need 2 new starters and 2-3 new arms in the pen and at least one needs to be a proven high leverage guy.

It’s a lot but the team has the resources to do it.

 

 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The peripheral stats say Kremer overachieved, same with Wells although Wells is a bit of an unknown because of the sample size not  being as large and the back and forth between the pen, rotation and minors. In other words, I think it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what he is.

Cano overachieved, as you said. Coloumbe overachieved relative to what he has done but his 2023 numbers suggest he could do it going forward. Again, he’s an unknown and far from a guarantee.

I feel good about Bradish, GRod and Means for 2024.

I feel good that Wells can provide some kind of role out of the pen and be, at the  very least, a solid reliever. I feel ok about Perez.

Hall and what his role is going forward is still a mystery to me although he should have some role here unless he is traded.

Coloumbe and Cano obviously are in the pen next year but how good will they be?

To me, you need 2 new starters and 2-3 new arms in the pen and at least one needs to be a proven high leverage guy.

It’s a lot but the team has the Oresources to do it.

 

 

I doubt the O's add two starters this off season.  It might be want you want but its probably not what you get.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I doubt the O's add two starters this off season.  It might be want you want but its probably not what you get.

I tend to agree.

I think they ride it out with Kremer and add just one guy.

 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I tend to agree.

I think they ride it out with Kremer and add just one guy.

 

I don’t think there’s a good reason not to ride it out with Kremer.  I realize that his peripherals suggest that he’s been a little lucky, but it’s also true that he was very good in the second half of the season (3.09 ERA, 3.87 FIP) and cut his HR rate way down.  He’s at a place on the experience curve where he still has room to keep improving.   I’d absolutely go into 2024 expecting him to be one of our starters, and be happy about it.  

I’m a little torn on what to do about adding another starter.  On the one hand, I think any of Wells, Irvin or Hall could do a good job in the 5th spot.  So, I’m not inclined to re-sign Gibson or go after some other “steady veteran” pitcher.  If we’re getting another starter, it should be someone really good.  

If you look at the situation we are in, it’s a better position than last winter.   Bradish has established himself as an above average pitcher and possibly an ace, GRod looks like he’s headed in that direction, Means is over his TJ rehab and showed he was as effective as before, Kremer gave us a solid year, Wells and Hall did more in 2023 than 2022, and Irvin is there as an insurance policy.   It’s not a bad spot to be in.   

 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there’s a good reason not to ride it out with Kremer.  I realize that his peripherals suggest that he’s been a little lucky, but it’s also true that he was very good in the second half of the season (3.09 ERA, 3.87 FIP) and cut his HR rate way down.  He’s at a place on the experience curve where he still has room to keep improving.   I’d absolutely go into 2024 expecting him to be one of our starters, and be happy about it.  

I’m a little torn on what to do about adding another starter.  On the one hand, I think any of Wells, Irvin or Hall could do a good job in the 5th spot.  So, I’m not inclined to re-sign Gibson or go after some other “steady veteran” pitcher.  If we’re getting another starter, it should be someone really good.  

If you look at the situation we are in, it’s a better position than last winter.   Bradish has established himself as an above average pitcher and possibly an ace, GRod looks like he’s headed in that direction, Means is over his TJ rehab and showed he was as effective as before, Kremer gave us a solid year, Wells and Hall did more in 2023 than 2022, and Irvin is there as an insurance policy.   It’s not a bad spot to be in.   

 

The team is in clear position where they have to start making moves with their excess positional talent and while I do think trading for the right bat is a smart idea, they should be using their resources to add pitching.

There is absolutely zero reason why this team shouldn’t be adding a legit 1-3 starter this offseason.

We have no idea what we have in Means going forward. All those names you mentioned as 5th starters are big question marks. Kremer will be fine but you can do better.

Its just not a smart or logical thing to do to enter 2024 with essentially the same rotation.

Wells isnt reliable, we have no idea what we have in Hall and any MiLer close to the majors is a complete wild card.

Irvin is a nice piece to have  and he can be that 6th starter, that you will need but he didn’t exactly perform well this year to the point where we should be counting on him as a rotational piece entering the season either.

There is just no reason, with all the resources this team has, coming off a 100 win season and entering 2024 as a WS contender for this team to not add a legit starter.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[nvpacchi]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there’s a good reason not to ride it out with Kremer.  I realize that his peripherals suggest that he’s been a little lucky, but it’s also true that he was very good in the second half of the season (3.09 ERA, 3.87 FIP) and cut his HR rate way down.  He’s at a place on the experience curve where he still has room to keep improving.   I’d absolutely go into 2024 expecting him to be one of our starters, and be happy about it.  

I’m a little torn on what to do about adding another starter.  On the one hand, I think any of Wells, Irvin or Hall could do a good job in the 5th spot.  So, I’m not inclined to re-sign Gibson or go after some other “steady veteran” pitcher.  If we’re getting another starter, it should be someone really good.  

If you look at the situation we are in, it’s a better position than last winter.   Bradish has established himself as an above average pitcher and possibly an ace, GRod looks like he’s headed in that direction, Means is over his TJ rehab and showed he was as effective as before, Kremer gave us a solid year, Wells and Hall did more in 2023 than 2022, and Irvin is there as an insurance policy.   It’s not a bad spot to be in.   

 

this illustrates nicely the point that has been brought up frequently on the board: there is no glaring hole on the team that can be appreciably bolstered by a free agent or trade acquisition.

 

Spend 10s of millions for oft injured Sonny Gray or middling K rates for Jordan Montgomery or pay league minimum or close to it with Wells and Kremer? We know who Gray and Montgomery are at this point, the home boys may have another level waiting to be unlocked at a fraction of the cost. Use that savings on extensions.

I too would like another SP, but either one on the primo side of the spectrum like Nola or a flyer on one of the posted Japanese guys or hoping you catch lightning in a bottle with a guy coming off a poor or injured year ala Severino, Montas,  or Maeda. Honestly Maeda is my favorite choice right now, injury history probably baked into his price and he has experience in relief and probably has no qualms being a swing man if other SPs perform admirably.

[24fps]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Next season Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Holliday, McDermott and Mayo will be available to the team.   I agree that the bullpen needs to be upgraded this off season.   The O's spent 18m on Gibson and Frazier.  I don't think either will be back next year.   That money should be spent on pitching.

That money will be spent on raises through arbitration. The O’s payroll will have to increase next season to acquire any free agents.  I think it will but will it be enough to make a difference is the question.  

[Sports Guy]

The other idea behind upgrading the pitching staff is that at some point, there will be a need to “rip off the band aid” and bring up these young position players.

We can discuss if player A is ready on OD or if we should wait a few months  but the reality is that an argument is there that says Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, Norby and Ortiz should be on a ML OD roster. And this doesn’t include Kjerstad who is here right now.

Now, can you keep some of them down?  Sure but they will be ready soon after.

With so many young players coming up, the team may need more margin for error with the pitching staff. I would personally like to add a very good young arm with big upside like Woo from Seattle and an established vet starter.

 

[Corolla35]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

With so many young players coming up, the team may need more margin for error with the pitching staff. I would personally like to add a very good young arm with big upside like Woo from Seattle and an established vet starter.

 

You mentioned the O's have the resources, what would you give up to get Woo?

[24fps]

23 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

I'm not opposed to making moves, you should always try to be better.  I'm opposed to creating narratives from a postseason baseball series.  There are no narratives.  The winners are random.  I know people don't like to hear that, as it takes away a lot of the romanticism, but that's the way it works.  

Sportswriters are in the narrative business, especially at playoff time.  Hard to fault Britt for that.

The playoffs are a crapshoot to a large extent but that doesn’t mean you can’t load the dice a little in your favor. Even a three-game series is not absolutely random. Talent matters and the Orioles could have done a little better with the bullpen at the break.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Corolla35 said:

You mentioned the O's have the resources, what would you give up to get Woo?

I’d move Cowser for him.  

Note: there are likely lots of ways to get this deal done. This is just an example. Westburg would be another potential as well.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

I'm all in on a guy named Woo.  We can have a Woo Tang Clan in 2024.

I agree with SG, they need to really make some significant moves for the pitching staff this offseason ahead and they can't screw around.  I think we might differ that I put more emphasis on the bullpen, but we do need a starter or two.  I'm not a huge Kremer fan but if we ride into 2024 with him in the rotation I'd be okay with it, depending upon what else is done.  

With Bautista out for all of next year, I'd really like it if they made a run at Hader.  

But I am conditioned to believe that this offseason will be a carbon copy of last year's offseason.  No real big moves made, they'll bring in a veteran to take Gibson's place in the rotation on a 1 year deal (or re-sign Gibson himself), maybe sign a bullpen piece that isn't exciting and some head scratching signings that might pan out if they can sink their analytics into that player like they did with O'Hearn this year.

This team won 101 games this year with all of the things that apparently went wrong.  I don't think Elias is going to rock the boat too much, especially with Holliday on the horizon.

Oh well.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I am conditioned to believe that this offseason will be a carbon copy of last year's offseason.  No real big moves made, they'll bring in a veteran to take Gibson's place in the rotation on a 1 year deal (or re-sign Gibson himself), maybe sign a bullpen piece that isn't exciting and some head scratching signings that might pan out if they can sink their analytics into that player like they did with O'Hearn this year.

This team won 101 games this year with all of the things that apparently went wrong.  I don't think Elias is going to rock the boat too much, especially with Holliday on the horizon.

Oh well.

I think as a fan, the best way to go into the offseason is to not expect any dramatic moves.  I’d rather be shocked and surprised if something big happens than be shaking my head in disappointment if nothing big happens.  It’s just better for my psyche not to be coveting the top players and sit there watching other teams gobble them up, crossing names off the list and just getting more and more disappointed.  

That’s my natural inclination anyway, and at this point I feel like Elias has earned the benefit of the doubt.   He’s got a really interesting, multi-dimensional set of decisions to make this winter and there’s dozens of directions he could go.  I’m just going to sit on the sidelines and watch, and not pre-judge anything he does or should do.   
 

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

Sportswriters are in the narrative business, especially at playoff time.  Hard to fault Britt for that.

The playoffs are a crapshoot to a large extent but that doesn’t mean you can’t load the dice a little in your favor. Even a three-game series is not absolutely random. Talent matters and the Orioles could have done a little better with the bullpen at the break.

Oh, I certainly agree on the 1st part.  I don't fault Britt for writing it, just saying that I disagree with it.  

As for the 2nd part, I think any individual moves in a short series maybe move the needle like 0.1% or something like that.