Separating regular season success from postseason failure

[Frobby]

It’s always tricky, when doing a post-mortem after a lost playoff series, to ascertain whether the postseason disappointment was the result of a badly timed poor performance (or good performance by the opponent) vs. true flaws in the team.  

The 2023 Orioles were in 7th in MLB in runs scored per game, 7th in OPS+, 11th in starter ERA, and 5th in reliever ERA.   In short, they didn’t have any serious weaknesses, but they also weren’t elite in any facet of the game.  Defensive metrics were mixed, some (Rtot, Rdrs, UZR) showing them in the top 5-8 teams in MLB, others (OAA, Fangraphs defense) showing them in the bottom 7-10 teams in MLB.   I choose to believe they were above average, but again not elite.   

When I look at the playoffs, I think the failures were mostly episodic rather than revealing big flaws in the team.  I will take Grayson Rodriguez’s future over the next 6 years over almost any other pitcher’s, but his outing put us way behind the 8-ball in game 2 and forced us to cover 7.1 innings with our bullpen.  Kremer is a credible middle/back rotation starter and he also didn’t have it yesterday.  Let’s remember that both these guys were WAY beyond their past highs in innings pitched, pitching after long layoffs, for the first time in a postseason game.   

The bullpen actually did a pretty solid job, outside of the Baker/Webb fiasco.   They allowed 1 run in 4.1 innings in game 1 (Webb solo HR), 1 run in 7.1 innings in game 3 (Gibson solo HR).   Game 2 was a bit of a mess, but having to cover 7.1 innings was the big problem.   

I think a lot of credit goes to the Texas offense here.  They are elite, and we caught them at the top of their game.  They had a ton of great at bats, spoiling 2-pitch strikes and not missing any mistake pitches.   

Our offense, on the other hand, had a disappointing performance in 2 of the 3 games.   They came into the series a little cold, and stayed that way.   And yesterday, Eovaldi had a lot to do with it, as he was completely on top of his game.  

I think for the O’s to get to the next level, they need to get from solidly above average to elite in at least one facet of the game, and shore up the other areas.   Some of this can happen organically, with young players improving with experience and new top talent rising from the minors.   But, they probably need to add some veteran elite talent to their team.  I don’t think adding “solid veteran depth” is what the team needs at this point.   They need a veteran star or two that the team can coalesce around.  

I know a lot of what I wrote here will feel like Captain Obvious stuff to many of you.  It just helps me to write it out, think it through a little and not overreact to what I just saw, but not ignore it either.   It’s a very good team, with a bright future, but it probably needs some elite help to become a great one.  Kind of like the very good Orioles teams of the early to mid-60’s needed Frank Robinson to unlock the full potential of those great teams.   

Over to you, Mike Elias.  
 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Frobby

[AdamK]

Agree on your points, Frobby.

While the ALDS seems like a bait and switch team from what we've seen over the season -- especially how they managed to rebound positively after a few losses -- the credit due to Texas is immense. They hit just about everything, and hard. The homers came on pitches that weren't terrible - even if they weren't located where Adley wanted them. I only recall them hitting in to one double play (last night), and over 3 games don't really remember many ground outs. They just have it all working right now and we did not.

 

I don't expect our team's playoff odds to increase too much next year despite the success in 2023. It's still going to be a long way to go and we won't have the benefit of an elite closer missing bats from the start. 

 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I know a lot of what I wrote here will feel like Captain Obvious stuff to many of you.  It just helps me to write it out, think it through a little and not overreact to what I just saw, but not ignore it either.   It’s a very good team, with a bright future, but it probably needs some elite help to become a great one.  Kind of like the very good Orioles teams of the early to mid-60’s needed Frank Robinson to unlock the full potential of those great teams.   

 

As always, @Frobby, you provide an excellent synopsis. I don't think you are Capt. Obvious. I appreciate the clarity and completeness.

The bolded part caught my eye. Do you see a player, currently playing, who might potentially fill the "Frank Robinson-like" need for the 2024 O's? Would a guy like Pete Alonso fit that bill? Rumor has it he might be available as the Mets are rebuilding and need to shed payroll. Apparently they have not tendered him an extension and there has been a rather seismic shift in the Mets leadership. Any thoughts on him or others who might satisfy that need? Thanks.

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

I think the issue was not a failure of the post-season as in contrast to the regular season... but rather, a continuation of the same. The problems that plagued us with Texas began over a month ago... inability to get hits, absolute shellacking to our pitching crew. 

I'm uncertain as to what changed over the last several weeks, but perhaps it's a "number of games" issue... given more games, perhaps we would again pull out above average. But in a one series elimination, we balked. 

[Moshagge3]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

As always, @Frobby, you provide an excellent synopsis. I don't think you are Capt. Obvious. I appreciate the clarity and completeness.

The bolded part caught my eye. Do you see a player, currently playing, who might potentially fill the "Frank Robinson-like" need for the 2024 O's? Would a guy like Pete Alonso fit that bill? Rumor has it he might be available as the Mets are rebuilding and need to shed payroll. Apparently they have not tendered him an extension and there has been a rather seismic shift in the Mets leadership. Any thoughts on him or others who might satisfy that need? Thanks.

I don't see Alonso as a great fit. His OBP was worse than Mountcastle's this year and Camden Yards would suppress his righty power. Cody Bellinger would be great but I doubt the O's open the wallet for him.

[Uli2001]

I think deep down every Orioles fan knew that the team overachieved in the regular season. Which is not a bad thing. I like overachievers. But from that to think they were WS favorites, that was not realistic, unfortunately. The key is to keep improving and to keep knocking on the door.

[Uli2001]

2 hours ago, Idaho_OriolesFan said:

I think the issue was not a failure of the post-season as in contrast to the regular season... but rather, a continuation of the same. The problems that plagued us with Texas began over a month ago... inability to get hits, absolute shellacking to our pitching crew. 

I'm uncertain as to what changed over the last several weeks, but perhaps it's a "number of games" issue... given more games, perhaps we would again pull out above average. But in a one series elimination, we balked. 

Good point. September was a struggle... the team was exhausted by the end of the season, and not just physically, but psychologically as well. In fact, I would say more the latter than the former.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I think deep down every Orioles fan knew that the team overachieved in the regular season. Which is not a bad thing. I like overachievers. But from that to think they were WS favorites, that was not realistic, unfortunately. The key is to keep improving and to keep knocking on the door.

This goes back to the fangraphs stuff.

This year's team both won more games than their RS/RA would indicate and they scored more runs than their underlying metrics would predict.

Neither of those are generally sustainable year to year.

[OnlyOneOriole]

Frobby what you just wrote in your OP is basically what I wrote in my "It's ok to not win the WS or even make the playoffs" thread.  I got completely lambasted for it lol. 

 

 

As I said then, the O's imo greatly out performed in many aspects, but they were still NEVER ELITE IN ANY OF THEM.   They were below average to average in hitting and pitching for the first half of the year and rose to average to a little above average by end of year.  But they were never elite. 

And to win a playoff series and go to the WS?  Where every game and every pitch is magnified?  You need elite stars in a least some positions of your team.  Kind of like the NFL where a great QB, left tackle, Defensive End, and WR can carry a team all the way.    Besides GH I don't think the O's imo have that.  Perhaps GR could be some day, but not right now.  With Gunner he just has that great athletic ability, and the ability to rise to the occasion, that most players do not have.  You could even see it when he scored from 2nd where he slid head first into home.  That is elite athletic ability.  Not just baseball ability.  Elite athleticism. 

 

Adley is ok.  Very good teammate and a good leader.  But I don't see elite athletic ability from him.  Perhaps as I said in my thread some of the youngsters can mature and develop into elite...obviously Holliday could.....but if not they are going to either have to sign a couple or trade for a couple more.

 

Of course the odds of PA ever giving the go ahead to sign anyone elite is slim to none. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by OnlyOneOriole