World Series Credibility Issue

[webbrick2010]

With the Orioles, Rays, Braves, and Dodgers eliminated, we will have a World Series Champion that in no way represents the best baseball team in 2023

I know we can never go back to a single NL Champion playing a single AL champion in as 7 game series

but if we continue to add WC teams and short series, the World Series "champion" will become more and more irrelevant.

I think the O's winning 101 games and the AL East trumps this years WS pretend champion.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Even before the wildcard the 1987 Twins won the World Series after only winning 85 games in thanks to having the rotating home field advantage that was used at the time instead of going by the best record.

And the 2006 Cardinals won the World Series after only winning 83 games. We all thought the Orioles could have used the break after a tiring regular season to win win the AL East. If the Orioles offense wasn't cold for the better part of a month good chance the ALDS turns out differently or at least they take the Rangers to five games.

[BobP]

It depends on your definition of best baseball team in 2023. I agree with the premise that the MLB playoffs are a crap shoot and rewards being hot once they start, but disagree that the WS champion will be a pretend champion. The Braves and Orioles were the most consistent teams in MLB over 162 games and led to 100+ wins but weren't necessarily the best teams entering the playoffs. The Phillies and Astros took their lumps but managed to win enough games to make the playoffs and were playing as well or better than any other team by the end of September. If the unlikely event that the Diamondbacks win, your point will be valid, but if one of the other teams win I don't think anybody will look at them as pretend champions.

[vab]

Honestly, if the Orioles win the World Series as a wild card you're going to feel like it's illegitimate? 

[webbrick2010]

Yes, it is illegitimate for an 88 win team to sneak into the playoffs get hot and win the World Series

The present system is a continuation of devaluing the regular season.

My solution would be to shorten the regular season enough to make all playoff series 7 games, or get rid of wild card teams (yeah aint going to happen because it is a big money generator)

I know injuries, slumps, etc will still happen and hot teams can run the table, but I don't like 5 games series or especially 3 game series, and it is just very noticeable in a year when the top 4 winning % teams don't even make it to a championship series.

[vab]

10 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes, it is illegitimate for an 88 win team to sneak into the playoffs get hot and win the World Series

The present system is a continuation of devaluing the regular season.

My solution would be to shorten the regular season enough to make all playoff series 7 games, or get rid of wild card teams (yeah aint going to happen because it is a big money generator)

I know injuries, slumps, etc will still happen and hot teams can run the table, but I don't like 5 games series or especially 3 game series, and it is just very noticeable in a year when the top 4 winning % teams don't even make it to a championship series.

Well, all I can say is I hope to find out if you really mean that. 

[Low Country Bird]

12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes, it is illegitimate for an 88 win team to sneak into the playoffs get hot and win the World Series

The present system is a continuation of devaluing the regular season.

My solution would be to shorten the regular season enough to make all playoff series 7 games, or get rid of wild card teams (yeah aint going to happen because it is a big money generator)

I know injuries, slumps, etc will still happen and hot teams can run the table, but I don't like 5 games series or especially 3 game series, and it is just very noticeable in a year when the top 4 winning % teams don't even make it to a championship series.

Does that mean the Ravens' 2000 Super Bowl was illegitimate?

[drdelaware]

2 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

With the Orioles, Rays, Braves, and Dodgers eliminated, we will have a World Series Champion that in no way represents the best baseball team in 2023

I know we can never go back to a single NL Champion playing a single AL champion in as 7 game series

but if we continue to add WC teams and short series, the World Series "champion" will become more and more irrelevant.

I think the O's winning 101 games and the AL East trumps this years WS pretend champion.

You must have purchased a lot of that AL East Division Champion garb.  

[Aristotelian]

I'd like the Wild Card series to go back to one game. Makes the DS a bigger deal. Beyond that the whole point of the playoffs is to have the best teams to face each other and see what happens. Otherwise you could just end the season after 162 and call it a day. 

For what it's worth I love March Madness. I think it is the most exciting playoff in sports in part because of the randomness. 

[Spy Fox]

.648 vs .682

17 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes, it is illegitimate for an 88 win team to sneak into the playoffs get hot and win the World Series

The present system is a continuation of devaluing the regular season.

My solution would be to shorten the regular season enough to make all playoff series 7 games, or get rid of wild card teams (yeah aint going to happen because it is a big money generator)

I know injuries, slumps, etc will still happen and hot teams can run the table, but I don't like 5 games series or especially 3 game series, and it is just very noticeable in a year when the top 4 winning % teams don't even make it to a championship series.

The difference in legitimacy between a 3, 5, and 7 game series may be less than you think. 

If the better baseball team has a 60% chance of winning each game, that better team has about a 65% chance to advance in a 3 game series, a 68% chance to advance in a 5 game series, and a 71% chance in a 7 game series. 

Longer series feel better because there's more baseball and more time for the series narrative to change course, but they aren't that much less random. 

[webbrick2010]

8 minutes ago, Low Country Bird said:

Does that mean the Ravens' 2000 Super Bowl was illegitimate?

Football is a different beast, a 16/17 game season does and should not carry the value/importance of a 162 game season

 

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

.648 vs .682

The difference in legitimacy between a 3, 5, and 7 game series may be less than you think. 

If the better baseball team has a 60% chance of winning each game, that better team has about a 65% chance to advance in a 3 game series, a 68% chance to advance in a 5 game series, and a 71% chance in a 7 game series. 

Longer series feel better because there's more baseball and more time for the series narrative to change course, but they aren't that much less random. 

I think you would need to factor in the winning % with the #4, #5  starters, backup catchers, etc. That is how the 60% team got to 60% team, so not every game would be 60% against 52%. Some of the games expose the lack of depth and especially pitching depth that the long season also exposed.

[Low Country Bird]

I simply don't see how a world series champion could be considered "illegitimate."   Those teams are playing by the same rules as every other team and managed to win 13 games (in the current format) against the four of the top twelve teams in the league before anyone else did.  I certainly wouldn't have considered an Orioles title in 12 or 16 as illegitimate had we won the WS.  

[Spy Fox]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

I think you would need to factor in the winning % with the #4, #5  starters, backup catchers, etc. That is how the 60% team got to 60% team, so not every game would be 60% against 52%. Some of the games expose the lack of depth and especially pitching depth that the long season also exposed.

I think that assumes a lot about the roster construction of both teams. How do you know the #4 v #4 pitching matchup would benefit the better team more, and not the other way around?

Of course the chances of each individual game vary quite a bit depending on the starter, home field, lineup health, etc. But I actually think the 60% number is higher than the real average advantage the better team has in an average playoff game.

[banks703]

March Madness is structured this way so I don't quite agree with invalidating the winner of the World Series this year simply because they didn't win the most games in the regular season. The MLB playoffs have become a tournament. To me, it's better now than with only four teams or only six teams. Yes, it does reward the teams that are hot at the right time. So be it. The O's were not set up for playoff baseball. That's our reality.  

What I think this year's playoffs have done is it's showing that contending teams (even those that were struggling/fringe contenders like the Twins and the DBacks, who at the time who had lost 8 of 10 from 7/20 to 7/30) need to improve by the deadline but have to improve their club through the year. Houston did it at the deadline. The Rangers did it at the deadline then got healthy. The Phils improved leading up to the deadline and got healthier. The DBacks improved at the deadline with sneaky good moves like acquiring Pham and Jace Peterson, got healthier and promoted guys.

The Rays added but then were stung by big losses to Franco and McCLanahan, Lowe in the WC round, among others.

The O's really didn't add to their team outside of internal guys. I was excited for them to bring in Flaherty but he didn't work out for them. I hope that they bring back Fuji to get a full off-season and Spring Training with him in hopes that they can fix him similarly to how they fixed Cano and Felix but Fuji didn't do a lot for them either. Whether they sat on their hands, didn't want to give up the prospects/players to acquire difference makers, or they were outbid..whatever the case is, they did not improve the club enough to make a post-season run. This has bee my complaint with Elias and Co. I think that they are slooowwww to make moves. Sure, we can look to the regular season success and make the argument that they were winning enough to not have to make a big move but if we were being honest with ourselves, they do not look like legitimate contenders.

In a perfect world the Wildcard series would be a one game win or go home and that one game should be played two days after game 162, simply for travel reasons. The Wildcard winners should have to fight for the playoff lives, that's what the Wildcard is designed to be in every sport. The Division Series should then be played two days after the Wildcard game and there should be re-seeding. Make those changes and I think the playoff structure gets even better. 

I'm not going to take anything away from the teams that are still playing. They're all good teams who have earned the right to be in their League Championship games. The O's needed to do more to be setup for the playoffs. No, I don't put winning 100 games and the East above a World Series or even an AL Championship. That's silly. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. They're just a tournament now that the O's were not designed for this year. Hopefully the ass-whipping the Rangers gave them keeps Mike Elias up all night, every night for the next 300ish days. If he/they show more action in improving the club in 24 DURING the season (regardless of whether or not they are leading the ALE) then I think them getting boat-raced out of the 23 playoffs was worth the embarrassment but I'm certainly not going to make excuses for their exit, diminish the eventual World Series winner or minimalize what the remaining four teams have earned. 

Edited October 13, 2023 by banks703