Some potential moves for this offseason

[RZNJ]

Is Cowser a consensus top 25 guy?   My memory tells me that Fangraphs and Keith Law didn’t have him nearly that high and his brief time in the majors certainly didn’t help which, of course is why he’s included with a bunch of other players you don’t  mind giving up.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean #2 is too much?

The other thing with Roberts is his WAR has jumped around like Mullins 

he was worth 2021 3.6, 2022 2.1 , and 5.1. So you might be buying high.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The other thing with Roberts is his WAR has jumped around like Mullins 

he was worth 2021 3.6, 2022 2.1 , and 5.1. So you might be buying high.

That’s largely because of injuries but yes, this deal would be banking on him being able to stay healthy.

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s largely because of injuries but yes, this deal would be banking on him being able to stay healthy.

I think it’s too much 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

I think it’s too much 

So you have said.  

[wildcard]

56 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is Cowser a consensus top 25 guy?   My memory tells me that Fangraphs and Keith Law didn’t have him nearly that high and his brief time in the majors certainly didn’t help which, of course is why he’s included with a bunch of other players you don’t  mind giving up.

The thing about trading Cowser is that in 2025 the O's may need him.   O's probably are not extending Santander, Mullins or Hays.   The can QO Santander but I would not bet they would do that with Mullins or Hays.  

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So you have said.  

I’d probably give them 3 of the 5 you mention. The. You could recover some by moving Cedric

And I’m for holding on to Kremer unless we find a upgrade

Edited October 13, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The thing about trading Cowser is that in 2025 the O's may need him.   O's probably are not extending Santander, Mullins or Hays.   The can QO Santander but I would not bet they would do that with Mullins or Hays.  

Cowser isn’t someone I “want” to trade but of the highest profile prospects  we have, he is the one I would deal before any one else.

I prefer Kjerstad, Holliday, Mayo and Basallo over him. It’s not really a shot at Cowser as much as it’s the idea that you have to trade someone ranked highly in a deal like this.

If we can’t get a high upside starter with a lot of service time left or a high profile offensive player, I’m not trading him.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Spy Fox]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The thing about trading Cowser is that in 2025 the O's may need him.   O's probably are not extending Santander, Mullins or Hays.   The can QO Santander but I would not bet they would do that with Mullins or Hays.  

Mullins and Hays are under team control for '25, and by that point you might have an Enrique Bradfield, Jud Fabian, or Dylan Beavers ready for some Orioles outfield time. So I don't think positional scarcity needs to be a reason to keep Cowser.

[DirtyBird]

19 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Mullins and Hays are under team control for '25, and by that point you might have an Enrique Bradfield, Jud Fabian, or Dylan Beavers ready for some Orioles outfield time. So I don't think positional scarcity needs to be a reason to keep Cowser.

Bradfield can't hit

[ScGO's]

5 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

There's a lot of beneficial moves in there. I'm expecting more of the same conservative roster construction.

1. Let Walk: Hicks, Frazier, Gibson, Flaherty, Fujinami

Since he had a couple years left on his contract, how does free agency work for Hicks? Do we have the rights to him until his original contract with the Yankees is up? Or is he a free agent free to sign a new deal while still getting paid by the Yankees?

 

 

[Spy Fox]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Bradfield can't hit

That might turn out to be the case, but what are you basing that on? 

He also may not need to hit that much if he has above average speed, defense, and batting eye. 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Bradfield can't hit

Neither could Gunnar Henderson. 

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There are so many directions this team can go in this offseason. These are just a few ideas of the types of moves I would like to see:

1) Westburg for Woo

2) Cowser, Mountcastle, Norby, Kremer and Max Wagner for Robert, Jr and Christian Mena (his profile sounds like one the Os would like and could be a reliever very soon)  

This is a lot to give and I could see this trade backfiring but Robert has a team friendly 4 years left on his deal and he has big power and big upside. 

3)  Sign a starter.  This offseason, the starters that are interesting are Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Nola and ERod. You should be able to afford one of those guys. I think Snell is going to get too much. Nola would be my preference but I’m guessing he gets too much.  Any of the remaining guys have Enough warts that they could get 3 years or less and that’s the area the Os need to be in.

An under the radar name would be Maeda. He has some very nice stats. The issue with Maeda is that he has a real injury history and he’s tough to rely on. He’s a better version of Tyler Wells.

4) Sign Kimbrel. He will be coming off a 1/10 deal. If you can get him for 2 years or less, he gives you a vet back end of the pen presence. 
 

5) Trade Santander. One of the pieces I would be looking to add is a ML ready/close to ML ready (or already in the majors) BP piece that fits the traits of missing bats, good command and control, high strikeout type guy.  Should be able to get at least one other top 10 prospect as well.

6) Sign Henderson to a 7 year extension for 110-120M

7) Give Holliday an 8 year deal for around 100M.  Holliday makes the OD roster.

8. Mateo is traded or non tendered.

9) Mayo makes team out of ST

IF: Mayo/OHearn, Ortiz, Holliday, Gunnar, Urias

OF: Kjerstad, Mullins, Robert and Hays

C- Adley and McCann

DH- a rotation of guys with Kjerstad probably getting more at bats than anyone else.

SP: Bradish, GRod, Woo, Means, FA starter

BP: Kimbrel, Hall, Wells, Irvin, Coloumbe, Cano, Perez

That’s 24 players. One more in the pen…Competition between who you receive in trade and Tate.

Last player is likely to be an OFer. With Robert here, you don’t need someone who can play CF, so bringing back Hicks could work in this scenario.
 

Salary added from trades/signings

Robert- 12.5M

Kimbrel- 10-15M

FA starter- 12-20M

Salary subtracted from trades/non tenders:  Santander, Mateo, Mountcastle. That is about 18M of expected arb increases.

Payroll:

10 guys making league minimum…7.5

9 arb eligible guys- roughly 29M

3 “big” acquisitions: 35-48M

McCann- 4M

Last few spots are likely to be cheaper salaries. Just call those 3 spots a total of 4M (May be high but leave it at that).

Total payroll is in the area of 80-92M depending on the cost of the starter and Kimbrel.

 

First let me acknowledge the creativity and imaginative thinking by you!!

I wish the Orioles under Elias and Angelos were willing to entertain 1/3 of this. But realistically speaking, for an org to go from very lukewarm/minor moves over the tenure of their current leadership, to ultra aggressive is probably not going to happen. But we all can dream!

PS - I really like your Roberts trade idea and am super surprised that you would be willing to include Cowser, given how high you appeared to be on him during the Summer. I don't like the Santander trade as much especially with Mountcastle being moved as well. IMO we would be a little light in the middle of the order and would really need Kjerstad and/or Mayo to pop next year. Otherwise, we would have Robert, Holliday, Adley, Gunnar (in whatever order) up to and then a little light through the middle. I would prefer to keep Santander along with the Robert addition in order to minimize the pressure put on Holliday/Mayo/Kjerstad out of the gate. As we saw this year, sometimes these guys take time to come up and get it going.

But again kudos to you for some creative thinking in terms of trying to improve the team for next year. I just only hope that Elias/Angelos are that willing/interested in improving the roster in a significant way.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

First let me acknowledge the creativity and imaginative thinking by you!!

I wish the Orioles under Elias and Angelos were willing to entertain 1/3 of this. But realistically speaking, for an org to go from very lukewarm/minor moves over the tenure of their current leadership, to ultra aggressive is probably not going to happen. But we all can dream!

PS - I really like your Roberts trade idea and am super surprised that you would be willing to include Cowser, given how high you appeared to be on him during the Summer. I don't like the Santander trade as much especially with Mountcastle being moved as well. IMO we would be a little light in the middle of the order and would really need Kjerstad and/or Mayo to pop next year. Otherwise, we would have Robert, Holliday, Adley, Gunnar (in whatever order) up to and then a little light through the middle. I would prefer to keep Santander along with the Robert addition in order to minimize the pressure put on Holliday/Mayo/Kjerstad out of the gate. As we saw this year, sometimes these guys take time to come up and get it going.

But again kudos to you for some creative thinking in terms of trying to improve the team for next year. I just only hope that Elias/Angelos are that willing/interested in improving the roster in a significant way.

I’m still high on Cowser. But like I said, you have to trade someone high profile in this deal and he is the guy to move for me instead of the other 4 guys.