Some potential moves for this offseason

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

There's a lot of beneficial moves in there. I'm expecting more of the same conservative roster construction.

1. Let Walk: Hicks, Frazier, Gibson, Flaherty, Fujinami

2. Trade: O'Hearn, Mateo (for scraps - I don't really care if he's the 13th man that plays twice a month)

3. Sign: 1 Starter, 1 Reliever. Let's hope for large upgrades over Kyle Gibson and Mychal Givens. Time to pay up. 

4. Call Up: Cowser, Ortiz. 

5. Holliday and Mayo knocking on the door and an additional trade could be made mid-season to accommodate their call-up. 

Honestly, I would trade the order/priorities of the call ups and start with Holliday. IMO he is much more talented and has a much higher upside than either Cowser or Ortiz and is the only one IMO who is likely to be a difference maker/star/maybe superstar (Henderson type potential).

[btdart20]

For those speculating trades, the SS/2B FA market is really thin this year.  So that bodes as well as we can hope for as we shop our guys.  

Maybe even packaging a MI with Kremer/Hays to SEA or CLE could gain us a better arm and a dice role.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m still high on Cowser. But like I said, you have to trade someone high profile in this deal and he is the guy to move for me instead of the other 4 guys.  

I agree with you in that you have to give in order to get. I just hope Elias is aggressive/allowed to be aggressive in his efforts to improve the team. Otherwise, (even with all of our young talent) I believe next year that we will be headed for a regression if we just take an "as-is" approach. Bautista's impact and contributions can not be understated. It is unlikely that we will have a pen that will allow for so many comeback wins and such a great record in 1-run games without the best closer in the game next year.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with you in that you have to give in order to get. I just hope Elias is aggressive/allowed to be aggressive in his efforts to improve the team. Otherwise, (even with all of our young talent) I believe next year that we will be headed for a regression if we just take an "as-is" approach. Bautista's impact and contributions can not be understated. It is unlikely that we will have a pen that will allow for so many comeback wins and such a great record in 1-run games without the best closer in the game next year.

I think the most likely outcome is they bring in a starter like Seth Lugo or they trade for a starter who doesn’t have a high salary, add a mid priced BP arm (Ala Givens) and probably add a vet bat somewhere on the Diamond for a cheaper 1 year deal.

I think one of Hays, Mounty or Santander is also dealt.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the most likely outcome is they bring in a starter like Seth Lugo or they trade for a starter who doesn’t have a high salary, add a mid priced BP arm (Ala Givens) and probably add a vet bat somewhere on the Diamond for a cheaper 1 year deal.

I think one of Hays, Mounty or Santander is also dealt.

That sounds very reasonable/realistic. But it also sounds like the type of moves that will end up in our team regressing some. I think 100+ wins is unrealistic to expect anyway (preseason) unless you have some type of juggernaut/talent swell like the Braves. However, with our depth I feel very confident that we are very likely to have a playoff spot "as-is" (though maybe not the division).

However, the reason I really like some of your moves, especially Robert, is due to the idea that it increases our upside/potential when the Fall comes. I mean sure we can get lucky and a guy or 2 who don't have star level talent is hot/play over their heads at the right time. But more than likely, you need top end talent to perform at a high level when you are facing the game's best in multiple short series.

[Otter]

I like all the ideas in the OP, but I just don't see Elias and JA being that bold or aggressive.  I don't see JA coughing up the money needed for a TOR or even mid-rotation starter; I expect another Gibson or Lyles type signing.  The one downside of us winning 101 games this year is it probably tells JA he doesn't need to invest any more money in signing players.  My guess is a one year deal for a #5 veteran starter, sign a couple relievers, trade Norby/Stowers for a reliever, and sign one veteran bat.  I think the boldest move that Elias might make is trading Santander for pitching.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem with Robert, despite his immense talent and contract, is that this is the only year of his career where he even played 100 games (he obviously couldn’t help 2020)

If they want to trade him, I think that keeps his value down somewhat. Still, they are getting a consensus top 25 guy, a player many have had in the top 100 and another prospect who some have said could be a top 100 guy next year and he has decent upside.

Plus the 2 MLers that are coming off good years.

I could see them saying they want a guy like Beavers or a player like Creed Willems over one of the MLers.  Give them another higher upside prospect.

If Cowser were a rock solid top 25 guy and Norby was still hanging around the top 100, then maybe. But the shine is definitely off Cowser after a rough first taste of big league action, and some evaluators didn’t have him that high even before that. I’m a huge Cowser fan and he’s still top 25 in my book, but I don’t think that’s an industry consensus that is necessarily reflected in his trade value. 

Norby I am very down on. He was red hot at the end of the year to resuscitate his season and even then he only ended at a 109 wRC+. Doesn’t seem like he can hit well enough for LF or defend well enough for anywhere else. He has some upside and probably decent trade value but he seems pretty light to me as the #2 prospect in a package for Robert, coming off a 5 WAR season with 4 years of control remaining.

I do think Mountcastle and Kremer have solid value and all those pieces together may add up to Robert. But it would be a more quantity over quality deal and include 2 important pieces in the middle of their pre-FA years and those types of deals don’t happen often. (And really, cheap controllable star players like Robert don’t get traded often to have data points for this type of deal.)

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

That sounds very reasonable/realistic. But it also sounds like the type of moves that will end up in our team regressing some. I think 100+ wins is unrealistic to expect anyway (preseason) unless you have some type of juggernaut/talent swell like the Braves. However, with our depth I feel very confident that we are very likely to have a playoff spot "as-is" (though maybe not the division).

However, the reason I really like some of your moves, especially Robert, is due to the idea that it increases our upside/potential when the Fall comes. I mean sure we can get lucky and a guy or 2 who don't have star level talent is hot/play over their heads at the right time. But more than likely, you need top end talent to perform at a high level when you are facing the game's best in multiple short series.

I’m going into this offseason with the expectation that I will believe this is a borderline playoff team entering the season unless the young players take huge steps forward.

I think it will be an offseason of re-arranging the deck chairs and hoping for a different result.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

If Cowser were a rock solid top 25 guy and Norby was still hanging around the top 100, then maybe. But the shine is definitely off Cowser after a rough first taste of big league action, and some evaluators didn’t have him that high even before that. I’m a huge Cowser fan and he’s still top 25 in my book, but I don’t think that’s an industry consensus that is necessarily reflected in his trade value. 

Norby I am very down on. He was red hot at the end of the year to resuscitate his season and even then he only ended at a 109 wRC+. Doesn’t seem like he can hit well enough for LF or defend well enough for anywhere else. He has some upside and probably decent trade value but he seems pretty light to me as the #2 prospect in a package for Robert, coming off a 5 WAR season with 4 years of control remaining.

I do think Mountcastle and Kremer have solid value and all those pieces together may add up to Robert. But it would be a more quantity over quality deal and include 2 important pieces in the middle of their pre-FA years and those types of deals don’t happen often. (And really, cheap controllable star players like Robert don’t get traded often to have data points for this type of deal.)

I don’t think much shine is off of Cowser. I follow several prospect guys on Twitter, some “known” and some “unknown” (ie they don’t work for FG or BA or something like that) and they are all extremely high on Cowser still.

As for Norby, I think that’s a depends on who you talk to type thing.  Many people like the bat and question the glove. He was up and down this year for sure.

I can definitely see them wanting a different #2 guy or a better combo at the top.  As much as I’m interested in Robert, you do have to be cautious at a guy who has proven early in his career that he can’t stay healthy. I’m willing to take the risk and I’m guessing so would a lot of other teams but that risk will only go so far because of his health concern.

Like I said, if you have to take out one of the MLers and add a high upside prospect like Beavers or Willems, I could see that and would be ok with it.

I just don’t see them getting multiple top 50 guys for him.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Other than Robert, IMO the star players with controllable years that could potentially be available are Tatis Jr. and Jose Ramirez. Remote possibilities in each case, both less likely than Robert.

For Tatis, SD has taken on a ton of huge contracts and is going to cut payroll, and probably wants to extend Soto. They also had some friction with Tatis around the PED suspension. Their direction is generally unclear after a really strange season.

For Ramirez, the Guardians are a franchise that has been willing to trade their stars. They built around Ramirez and are not likely to want to deal him, but he’s also now 31 and they weren’t all that competitive this year in a very weak division. 

Both players have extremely valuable contracts and would require a haul to acquire, and still only a small chance they even pick up the phone, but there’s enough of a narrative with each that it’s fun to hypothesize trades for those as well. The Orioles are one of the few teams positioned with the pieces to make that type of trade possible. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m going into this offseason with the expectation that I will believe this is a borderline playoff team entering the season unless the young players take huge steps forward.

I think it will be an offseason of re-arranging the deck chairs and hoping for a different result.

If that is to be the case, I think we are going to be setting ourselves us for another disappointing end to our postseason.

I came out of that Rangers series saying we were really outclassed. When you only lead a 3 game series for 1 inning, that to me says it wasn't close, like at all. But the thing is, I think it would have been a very similar result if we had faced the Astros or Rays and on the other side the Braves, Dodgers, or Phillies.

From what I saw from our pitching, DL Hall and Bradish (Cano never really got a chance) were the only pitchers who could go out good hitters with any kind of consistency. The rest of our entire pitching staff was not very good IMO. You can probably chalk Grayson up to youth/inexperience. But when I look at many of our other guys (starter or bullpen) I don't know if anything is going to change next year?

I know that some may not believe this, but I believe that performing against elite opposition in a pressured packed short series is different than what you do in May/June/etc against more mediocre competition. It just is IMO.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Otter said:

I like all the ideas in the OP, but I just don't see Elias and JA being that bold or aggressive.  I don't see JA coughing up the money needed for a TOR or even mid-rotation starter; I expect another Gibson or Lyles type signing.  The one downside of us winning 101 games this year is it probably tells JA he doesn't need to invest any more money in signing players.  My guess is a one year deal for a #5 veteran starter, sign a couple relievers, trade Norby/Stowers for a reliever, and sign one veteran bat.  I think the boldest move that Elias might make is trading Santander for pitching.

What pitching is the one year remaining on Santander's contract likely to get us? I don't think it will be a difference make (somebody who can positively impact games in October).

To your other point about JA, we can only hope that he actually cares anything about winning and was disappointed in the finish of the season. But if he is as apathetic as I believe that he is, I believe/fear that you are right and we will be headed for more of the same - very short stint in the postseason. 

[Sydnor]

41 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Other than Robert, IMO the star players with controllable years that could potentially be available are Tatis Jr. and Jose Ramirez. Remote possibilities in each case, both less likely than Robert.

For Tatis, SD has taken on a ton of huge contracts and is going to cut payroll, and probably wants to extend Soto. They also had some friction with Tatis around the PED suspension. Their direction is generally unclear after a really strange season.

For Ramirez, the Guardians are a franchise that has been willing to trade their stars. They built around Ramirez and are not likely to want to deal him, but he’s also now 31 and they weren’t all that competitive this year in a very weak division. 

Both players have extremely valuable contracts and would require a haul to acquire, and still only a small chance they even pick up the phone, but there’s enough of a narrative with each that it’s fun to hypothesize trades for those as well. The Orioles are one of the few teams positioned with the pieces to make that type of trade possible. 

Jose Ramirez has a full no trade clause. The no trade clause was the result of a meeting that he requested prior to *likely* getting traded. Based on the accounts of that meeting that I have read, Jose got ownership, management, and his representatives in a room at the end of spring training last year to hammer out a deal, where he accepted a below market deal and demanded the no trade clause. I don’t think there will even be speculation that he will be loved this off-season because he has made clear that he wants to spend his entire career in Cleveland.

[Otter]

52 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What pitching is the one year remaining on Santander's contract likely to get us? I don't think it will be a difference make (somebody who can positively impact games in October).

To your other point about JA, we can only hope that he actually cares anything about winning and was disappointed in the finish of the season. But if he is as apathetic as I believe that he is, I believe/fear that you are right and we will be headed for more of the same - very short stint in the postseason. 

Agreed.  If we trade Santander I don't expect a starting pitcher in return.  He's pretty much one-dimensional at this point, so I'd like to get a nice bullpen arm in return or maybe a couple pitching prospects.  But hopefully they'd use the salary savings from Santander to sign a starting pitcher.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What pitching is the one year remaining on Santander's contract likely to get us? I don't think it will be a difference make (somebody who can positively impact games in October).

To your other point about JA, we can only hope that he actually cares anything about winning and was disappointed in the finish of the season. But if he is as apathetic as I believe that he is, I believe/fear that you are right and we will be headed for more of the same - very short stint in the postseason. 

I think we have a very good comp in Teoscar Hernandez, who was traded last winter for reliever Erik Swanson and minor league pitcher Adam Macko.  Hernandez had 5.097 years of service and was due to be a free agent at the end of 2023.   He took Seattle to arbitration after the trade and lost, earning a salary of $14 mm.  Going into the trade, in 651 games he’d been worth 10.7 rWAR and had a career OPS+ of 121, and in the season before the trade he’d been worth 2.8 rWAR and had an OPS+ of 128.  By conparison, Santander in 591 games has been worth 7.9 rWAR with a career OPS+ of 109, and in 2023 was worth 3.0 rWAR and had a 121 OPS+.   Pretty much by any measure, Hernandez was a somewhat more valuable trade chip than Santander based on those numbers.  

Swanson, at the time of the trade, had three years of control remaining and was coming off a season of throwing 53.2 IP at a 1.84 ERA, worth 1.7 rWAR. That earned him a salary of $1.25 mm this year. But his career numbers were significantly worse than that. 4.13 ERA and 0.9 rWAR.  The minor leaguer Macko was not ranked in the Mariners top 32 prospects on the Fangraphs list and apoears to just be a throw-in.  

Now, I think Toronto may have sold cheap due to luxury tax considerations that the Orioles don’t have, but this gives you some idea of the type of return we’d likely get for Santander.