Santander Speculation

[Sports Guy]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I think this is well reasoned.  I wouldn't extend Mountcastle, I'm just not anxious to casually dispose of him now.  I don't think his arb years would be particularly troublesome, but if you can make a good trade before he becomes too expense, I wouldn't be opposed.  I suppose that you could move Santander to 1B until Mayo or Basallo or Player X is ready, but Santander might actually be a better trade candidate (from our perspective) due to age and lack of more than 1 year of control.  I'm not convinced that O'Hearn will continue to produce at his peak Baltimore level vs. routine KC level.

So, all in all, I think one more year of Mountcastle is the way to go.

 

With all the left handedness in the lineup, keeping him is a good idea.

OTOH, if you aren’t going to pay him 5-7M in 2025 and you know that now, you could look to trade him now.

[forphase1]

13 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I'm concerned about the OF defense if Hayes is traded and Mullins doesn't hit enough to be the full-time CF. 

Mullins is likely to be the full time CF regardless of how he hits.  We really don't have much of anyone else at the moment who can adequately man CF.

[NCRaven]

Nearly any player is tradeable given the right return.  I just see no reason to "look" to trade him.  If another team comes calling with the right offer, you go for it and figure things out.  But, I'll worry about what I'm paying, or not paying, him on '25 after '24.  I don't see that as a reason to look to trade him now.

Any way, I see this as a very minor area of disagreement between us.  Neither of us would give him away and neither of us would extend him.  I'm sure that the real world result will be somewhere in the middle of that anyway.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading the future for the present doesn't sound like Elias.   That does not mean he isn't trying to win the world series in 2024.  He just does it differently then you seem to expect.

Maybe he’ll do it differently than you expect.  

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Nearly any player is tradeable given the right return.  I just see no reason to "look" to trade him.  If another team comes calling with the right offer, you go for it and figure things out.  But, I'll worry about what I'm paying, or not paying, him on '25 after '24.  I don't see that as a reason to look to trade him now.

Any way, I see this as a very minor area of disagreement between us.  Neither of us would give him away and neither of us would extend him.  I'm sure that the real world result will be somewhere in the middle of that anyway.

Well, you look to trade him now vs next year if you believe his value is high enough and if you feel you can replace him.

I think they can replace him…whether he has enough value to warrant trading him, who knows but I think they should find out.

[tntoriole]

Myself, I would like to see them extend Santander,  maybe a 4 year deal.  First though I want to see Gunnar and Adley extensions

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe he’ll do it differently than you expect.  

Very possible.

[wildcard]

57 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Myself, I would like to see them extend Santander,  maybe a 4 year deal.  First though I want to see Gunnar and Adley extensions

I think Means is extended.  Maybe a year and an option year.  Maybe  2 or 3 years with a low salary and bonuses for number of starts.   Something like that.

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I'm concerned about the OF defense if Hayes is traded and Mullins doesn't hit enough to be the full-time CF. 

 

He's been an average hitter or better for the last 3 years, why would you think Mullins won't hit enough?  Unless you think he's going to age out?

[tntoriole]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Means is extended.  Maybe a year and an option year.  Maybe  2 or 3 years with a low salary and bonuses for number of starts.   Something like that.

Or perhaps Mullins.. maybe 4 years .. he is under control for 2 more arb years 2024 and 2025 .. so maybe 2 additional years 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Or perhaps Mullins.. maybe 4 years .. he is under control for 2 more arb years 2024 and 2025 .. so maybe 2 additional years 

Very doubtful that Santander or Mullins are extended.  

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Very doubtful that Santander or Mullins are extended.  

I agree. Or Hays.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

 

He's been an average hitter or better for the last 3 years, why would you think Mullins won't hit enough?  Unless you think he's going to age out?

Mullins' OPS was .612 in August and .584 in September. He's looked bad at the plate for a while, including in the postseason (0 for 12). I hope that's lingering injury-related or otherwise curable, but it may not be.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not “hard to replace”.

5+ WAR players are hard to replace. If Adley blows out his Achilles in ST, he would be hard to replace. 
 

Santander isn’t that.

Of course he isn’t.  But I don’t think 2-3 WAR players are that easy to replace, either.  There’s certainly no guarantee that Kjerstad or Cowser will be better than Santander in 2024.  In fact, I’d say the odds are against it.  I think if you trade Santander, you have to be realistic and realize that you are probably downgrading the offense at his spot in 2024.   So, you’d better get something in exchange that makes that downgrade worthwhile.   

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Santander is projected to be a .780 OPS, 2.5 rWAR guy in 2024; in exchange they can get a reliever who is expected to be an 0.8 rWAR/yr guy (60 IP, 3.50 ERA) for 3 years; and that Kjerstad is projected for a .720 OPS and 1.8 rWAR in a full 2024 season.  If you make that deal, your offense will take a small hit in 2024, your bullpen will be bolstered for 3 years, and maybe by 2025 Kjerstad is about as good as Santander has been the last couple of years.   So, it’s an interesting call.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Santander is projected to be a .780 OPS, 2.5 rWAR guy in 2024; in exchange they can get a reliever who is expected to be an 0.8 rWAR/yr guy (60 IP, 3.50 ERA) for 3 years; and that Kjerstad is projected for a .720 OPS and 1.8 rWAR in a full 2024 season.  If you make that deal, your offense will take a small hit in 2024, your bullpen will be bolstered for 3 years, and maybe by 2025 Kjerstad is about as good as Santander has been the last couple of years.   So, it’s an interesting call.  
 

The reliever is unlikely to make as much as Santander and the additional payroll flexibility should be included in the equation.