Bowden top 40 FA list

[HakunaSakata]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:28 PM, RZNJ said:

Kimbrel is a better investment for one year.  

Just because the dollar store sells a steak for $3.99 doesn't mean you should buy it. I don't think there's any scenerio in which Kimbrel would be a good investment, personality wise or performance wise. 

[HakunaSakata]

Looking at the projected contracts (total value and length) for the top tier FA pitchers just convinces me that we'd be better off trading one of our veteran OFs for a SP and/or RP and gambling on one of our younger players filling the void.  Santander probably has the most value so I'd personally look to move him. I think that's a better move than locking up a good but not great pitcher for five years. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Just because the dollar store sells a steak for $3.99 doesn't mean you should buy it. I don't think there's any scenerio in which Kimbrel would be a good investment, personality wise or performance wise. 

My point wasn’t that I want to sign Kimbrel.  It’s that Jordan Hicks isn’t very good.   Having said that, Kimbrel isn’t awful.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Looking at the projected contracts (total value and length) for the top tier FA pitchers just convinces me that we'd be better off trading one of our veteran OFs for a SP and/or RP and gambling on one of our younger players filling the void.  Santander probably has the most value so I'd personally look to move him. I think that's a better move than locking up a good but not great pitcher for five years. 

What kind of starting pitcher do you think Santander brings back?   

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

What kind of starting pitcher do you think Santander brings back?   

It's tough to say without knowing who's available. Someone comparable to Montgomery/Gray doesn't seem unrealistic to me. I don't think he gets us a young cornerstone arm, but he should be appealing to teams with pitching depth and the need for some pop. If we look at last year's trades, the Twins swapped Arraez for Lopez. I'd say that Santander is worth less so probably someone comparable with Lopez (pre trade) but with more mileage / innings on his arm. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

My point wasn’t that I want to sign Kimbrel.  It’s that Jordan Hicks isn’t very good.   Having said that, Kimbrel isn’t awful.

I wasn't so much lobbying for Hicks as I was lobbying against Kimbrel, who I think actually is pretty awful. I think we'd probably be better off signing or trading for another solid bullpen arm and just transitioning Wells into the closer's role. For context, there were large chunks of the season where the Phillies didn't trust Kimbrel AT ALL. At one point Alvarado was poised to pass him on the closer depth chart, but he had an untimely injury. 

[oriole]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Does he though at that price? I like Montgomery, but I don't think I'd give him a five year deal. 

Everybody is expensive. They’ve got the room in payroll to do it. A good portion of the team haven’t even hit arbitration yet and a glaring weakness in the rotation is a veteran anchor. 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, oriole said:

Everybody is expensive. They’ve got the room in payroll to do it. A good portion of the team haven’t even hit arbitration yet and a glaring weakness in the rotation is a veteran anchor. 

Means?

[oriole]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Means?

What about him? He just came back from Tommy John and even in 2022 he was not the same pitcher once they cracked down on the foreign substance rules. I have high hopes for Means, but not high expectations. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

Everybody is expensive. They’ve got the room in payroll to do it. A good portion of the team haven’t even hit arbitration yet and a glaring weakness in the rotation is a veteran anchor. 

It's not about the money, it's about the years. I'm not giving  a five year contract to a 30 year old good, but not great starting pitcher. Yes they need pitching help, but there are other ways to to fill that void, like trading from positions of depth / strength. 

[jamalshw]

Given the ballpark and the LF wall, I'd love to add another LHP to the rotation. Blake Snell is the cream of the crop there and while I think that would be a perfect addition, I'm not delusional enough to believe the Orioles would pony up enough. Jordan Montgomery is a bit more possible, but probably also out of range, leaving E-Rod as the best "realistic" option. Shota Imanaga is an interesting option, but not sure he fits into the team's more risk-adverse mindset. Abandoning the LHPs and looking at RHP, Gray is the best of the options there in my mind given the shorter contract as a result of his age. Of course, the AAV will be up there. Overall, I want to avoid the lower end of the pool and would probably prefer Wells/Hall in the 5th spot in the rotation and more focus on the bullpen to a return of Gibson or another signing on that scale. 

[oriole]

49 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's not about the money, it's about the years. I'm not giving  a five year contract to a 30 year old good, but not great starting pitcher. Yes they need pitching help, but there are other ways to to fill that void, like trading from positions of depth / strength. 

Who are they trading for that is anywhere near as consistent as Montgomery that won’t require one of Holliday, Kjerstad, or Cowser? Would I love to put together a package for someone like Logan Gilbert? Hell yeah, but Elias strikes me as a prospect hoarder. At least when it comes to the top guys. Sure, he’ll probably trade Norby or Beavers…but they’re not bringing back anyone we could slot in front of even Kremer. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

Who are they trading for that is anywhere near as consistent as Montgomery that won’t require one of Holliday, Kjerstad, or Cowser? Would I love to put together a package for someone like Logan Gilbert? Hell yeah, but Elias strikes me as a prospect hoarder. At least when it comes to the top guys. Sure, he’ll probably trade Norby or Beavers…but they’re not bringing back anyone we could slot in front of even Kremer. 

Gilbert > Montgomery (and much younger). I highly doubt he's available and certainly not for Santander. Pitchers like Mitch Keller and Shane Bieber might be doable though. 

If I'm looking at starting pitching depth teams like the Astros (France?) and A's (Blackburn?) might be willing to part with someone as well. If we're willing to trade a top prospect (instead of Santander) then the Guardians "might" be willing to part with Allen, Williams or Bibee. 

[Moose Milligan]

Lol Snell 

[oriole]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Gilbert > Montgomery (and much younger). I highly doubt he's available and certainly not for Santander. Pitchers like Mitch Keller and Shane Bieber might be doable though. 

If I'm looking at starting pitching depth teams like the Astros (France?) and A's (Blackburn?) might be willing to part with someone as well. If we're willing to trade a top prospect (instead of Santander) then the Guardians "might" be willing to part with Allen, Williams or Bibee. 

I’d also prefer Gilbert but he’d come at a cost. We’d be looking at something like Cowser + another top ten prospect + a major league hitter. If you can pull off something like Cowser, Norby, and Urias then you do it but even that’s probably not enough. Which is why you overpay for a FA and get to keep your top guys and trade the redundant or unnecessary pieces for more role-type players.

Santander is not really relevant. He might be able to be traded for a middle relief guy or something. But he’s seemingly been on the block for years and no ones given a good return yet. Not gonna happen now that he’s at his most expensive with the least control.