Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Judge is shockingly adriot out there is center for a behemoth.

Hopefully, he starts slowing down, starting this year.

Interesting.  His sprint speed was 26.6 (33%) last year.  That’s Adam Frazier territory.  Should only get slower from here on out especially for such a big guy.

Judge has been up and down maybe due to injury but his sprint speed peak was 28.3 in 2019.  27.3 in 2022.  26.6 in 2023.   It’s something to hope on.

Edited January 11 by RZNJ

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I believe Cowser can play a serviceable CF.  Hicks isn't that good in the field any longer anyway.  And with Cowser and Kjerstad both ready, I'm not too worried about our OF depth, certainly not enough to bring Hicks back.  The fact that he'd want considerable playing time is another reason to NOT sign him.  He shouldn't get at bats over Mullins, Santander or Hays, and shouldn't take away development time from Cowser and/or Kjerstad.  We don't need him, hard pass. 

He would have to improve considerably from last year. To me he didn’t look comfortable out there and I really didn’t appear to have the speed imo. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, IPlayGM said:

I saw a comment maybe 100 pages back lol that stated that these free agent contracts don’t change the value of Cease via trade, but they definitely do. This guy is gonna be dirt cheap for 2 years compared to the market, and he will most likely out produce guys that are going to make 20 + per….Im starting to come around to the idea that Getz isn’t as crazy as we on here are making him out to be.

The idea that he is “dirt cheap” compared to the market is the case now, 2 weeks ago and 2 months ago.

And cheap is a relative word. He costs less in terms of money but you are trading significantly cheap and controllable years to get him.

Now obviously not everyone is likely to work out but still, that is a big factor in this deal.

 

Edited January 11 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m sure they’d take Bradfield in that deal but you’d have to deal Mullins elsewhere like the Padres.

Orioles get Cease and Robert 

Padres get Hays/Mullins, Mountcastle, Urias, and Baumann

White Sox …. Cowser, Ortiz, Snelling/Lesko, Zavala, Bradfield Jr., Thorpe, Norby. 

 

You should just say, I’m not interested in acquiring these players and not even try.

[RZNJ]

No thanks on trying to pay for Luis Roberts likely career year.

1.  Very poor whiff, chase, K, walk numbers. (ie. Plate discipline)

2. One full, healthy season.  Last year.

3. A lot of value tied to his defense. 6’2. 220, 26 yo, tend to slow down each year.  Even small guys like Cedric Mullins slow down.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No thanks on trying to pay for Luis Roberts likely career year.

1.  Very poor whiff, chase, K, walk numbers. (ie. Plate discipline)

2. One full, healthy season.  Last year.

3. A lot of value tied to his defense. 6’2. 220, 26 yo, tend to slow down each year.  Even small guys like Cedric Mullins slow down.

No way Elias is giving up enough to get two established players.

[sportsfan8703]

If we were to get a 2nd player in a Cease trade then I’d be interested in Kopech as a SU reliever. However, it makes sense for them to keep him starting to try and flip him at the deadline. If we don’t make a Cease trade then I’d like to see us bring in one more RH reliever. Brasier?  Uwasawa?  Fuji reunion?  Some RH reliever that I dont know. 
 

If Irvin isn’t in our rotation then we have three lefties in the pen that our out of options. Coloumbe, Perez, and Irvin. I assume Hall comes to ST ready to be a SP. I guess we’d keep him stretched out in AAA to start the year. He’s older now. Had some success getting outs in the pen. It’s not a stretch for him to start having some consistent SP outings in AAA. 

[RZNJ]

As for Cease, it’s possible the Orioles have offered Cowser and Ortiz/Norby and a 20-30 prospect and the WS are demanding Kjerstad/Mayo and more substantial 3rd and 4th pieces.   Other teams may have determined they were unwilling to even beat the O’s initial offer (if Getz made it known to them) and moved on.   Now, we wait for a compromise.  Maybe.

Edited January 11 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

Im all about acquiring Robert but im not giving up what it seemingly take judging by what they want for Cease.

Robert is an incredible talent and he is signed very cheaply for 4 years but the injury history is a real thing and can’t be overlooked just because his most recent season was a healthy one.

If the WS can get optimal value for him, they should move him now. But if teams are thinking the same way I am, keeping him and waiting until next offseason may be the best move.

I would give up a lot for him but I’m still not putting one of our top 3 on the table for him.

Edited January 11 by Sports Guy

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, IPlayGM said:

This guy is gonna be dirt cheap for 2 years compared to the market, and he will most likely out produce guys that are going to make 20 + per….Im starting to come around to the idea that Getz isn’t as crazy as we on here are making him out to be.

Getz wants other teams to pay for 2022 Cease production. The other teams want to pay for 2023 Cease production. I'm assuming if a deal gets struck that it will be for some middle ground between the two scenarios. But if Getz doesn't okay a trade because he thinks the WS were lowballed and Cease winds up cratering or getting hurt in 2024 then he'll regret not taking the best offer that was on the table before the season started. Every pitcher in the game is one windup away from TJS. That's a risk for Cease and for Getz. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Getz wants other teams to pay for 2022 Cease production. The other teams want to pay for 2023 Cease production. I'm assuming if a deal gets struck that it will be for some middle ground between the two scenarios. But if Getz doesn't okay a trade because he thinks the WS were lowballed and Cease winds up cratering or getting hurt in 2024 then he'll regret not taking the best offer that was on the table before the season started. Every pitcher in the game is one windup away from TJS. That's a risk for Cease and for Getz. 

I think teams are willing to pay for something between the 2022 and 2023 production.

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

As for Cease, it’s possible the Orioles have offered Cowser and Ortiz/Norby and a 20-30 prospect and the WS are demanding Kjerstad/Mayo and more substantial 3rd and 4th pieces.   Other teams may have determined they were unwilling to even beat the O’s initial offer (if Getz made it known to them) and moved on.   Now, we wait for a compromise.  Maybe.

I wonder if it being known that the Orioles with their farm system are in on Cease has been a deterrent to other teams pursuing him? Like, why spend the time working on a deal if you know the Orioles have the prospects to be able to more comfortably go above what you can offer. Not completely analogous, but sort of like no team even negotiating with Lamar Jackson on the franchise tag because the Ravens would match. 

If the Orioles have made a strong offer to the White Sox and that deal is on the table and known to other teams, it would make sense why every other team with rumored interest in Cease has seemingly gone in a different direction. 

[Frobby]

I’m Ceased out, and like I did on the Soxtalk board, I’m going to refrain from any further comment in this thread unless there’s a very concrete rumor of a specific pending trade, or we hear about an actual deal.   I don’t think there’s any relevant point or proposed trade combination that hasn’t been discussed ad nauseum.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I wonder if it being known that the Orioles with their farm system are in on Cease has been a deterrent to other teams pursuing him? Like, why spend the time working on a deal if you know the Orioles have the prospects to be able to more comfortably go above what you can offer. Not completely analogous, but sort of like no team even negotiating with Lamar Jackson on the franchise tag because the Ravens would match. 

If the Orioles have made a strong offer to the White Sox and that deal is on the table and known to other teams, it would make sense why every other team with rumored interest in Cease has seemingly gone in a different direction. 

Teams know that Elias is hesitant to deal their top guys.

Why should they be scared about the O's farm?

[wildcard]

Elias appears to be showing a lot of confidence in Wells, Irvin and McDermott as starters that can help the team in 2024.    He seems far from desperate.  Sure he would like to acquire Cease but at his price.