Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

This is exactly right. Realistically, the Orioles cannot (simply cannot) do better than Cease whether in FA or via trade. The dude is only making $8 mil this year. For the folks on here who were comparing Cease to Kyle Gibson (LOL by the way) ... Kyle is making $13 mil with the Cards in 24. 

The O's have a surplus of talent that they are legitimately wasting. I love how Elias, Sig and company have rebuilt the system but good grief, they are prospect hoarders. Someone on here referenced a quote in a book or interview or something about how much trouble Sig has with parting with prospects. This off-season seems to support that idea because the only way that they can improve the rotation is to send away assets to do so and unless the WS are legitimately asking for Holliday and/or Basallo to headline a deal (and there has been nothing reported that supports that suggestion), some combo of the other top guys should get it done. I don't consider any of the remaining top 30 guys untouchable, though I think Mayo is closer to Holliday and Basallo than anyone else. I'm a big big fan of both Joey and Cowser but if those two kids plus fillers could get you Dylan Cease, who is at least as good as the O's current best 1 or 2 starter, I will drive Joey and Cowser to the airport myself. 

The WS know the O's aren't going to move prospects for a 5th starter retread but they also know that the O's can't do better than Dylan Cease. Perhaps their demands are in the Holliday, Basallo, Mayo neighborhood. Obviously they know that the O's aren't trading Holliday so we can cross that off of the list. The WS aren't stupid. Basallo is closely behind Holliday and I'd argue just as much untouchable. It would really sting to give up Mayo and I'd prefer that they do not go that route but acquiring an established ML starter, who misses bats, posts and eats innings, exposing him to their analytics, culture and giving him the benefit of an improved ballclub while pitching half of his games in Walltimore.. get out of here. A change of scenery on a better team could do wonders for him. It's worth the risk because the alternative is that the prospects who they are holding don't get a chance in 24 and will be at least a half year older before there's more urgency to move them, further reducing their value. The WS know all of this. 

A surplus of talent that they ARE legitimately wasting?  I’d say that’s premature.  What talent has been wasted to this point?

[24fps]

43 minutes ago, owknows said:

Did you miss the whole Hiring Elias, tanking to build a farm, and now having the top system in baseball and winning 101 games thing?

Nope.  I only focused on the cherry-picking of one season to inductively conclude that John Angelos is somehow better for the Orioles than he actually is. 

I'm usually pretty scrupulous about acknowledging the things he has contributed, including hiring Elias and all the rest, but let's not go overboard.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

Gibson won us 15 games last year.

The horror.

Kyle Gibson had a QS% of  52% last season. So nearly half the time the Orioles technically won despite of him not because of him. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Kyle Gibson had a QS% of  52% last season. So nearly half the time the Orioles technically won despite of him not because of him. 

Maybe not the best metric to cite in a Cease thread since his QS% was only 36%

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Maybe not the best metric to cite in a Cease thread since his QS% was only 36%

You can certainly site it. It's no secret that Cease has had trouble going deep into games because he throws too many balls / walks too many batters. You could also say the same about Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young last season. Innings are great, but ultimately it's the quality of the innings. And I still stand behind the fact that trying to compare a 36 year old journeyman to a 28 year old with pretty electric stuff who was in contention for a Cy Young a few years ago is pretty ridiculous. 

[owknows]

18 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Nope.  I only focused on the cherry-picking of one season to inductively conclude that John Angelos is somehow better for the Orioles than he actually is. 

I'm usually pretty scrupulous about acknowledging the things he has contributed, including hiring Elias and all the rest, but let's not go overboard.

My comments were simply objections to hurling "cheap-ass" invectives around.

After dipping a toe or two into the big contract pool, the O's ownership got burned pretty bad.

Trumbo, Cobb, Jimenez, and Davis cost this franchise about 300 Million dollars.

So ownership decided to tank.. clear the books... build a monster farm, and develop their own players.

They hired a GM who meshed perfectly with that strategy, and now they are beginning to reap the benefits of their approach.

And it got them a 101 win team... a helluva lot earlier than most thought it would.

And there is a vocal contingent of perpetually dissatisfied for whom this is not enough. They grumble about the lack of flashy free agent signings... and declare the team "doesn't want to win"... when every single free agent signing comes with pretty serious risk of being a turd. Many are... and the cost of those mistakes is high.

So the strategy now seems to be... develop players, field a great team, build and maintain a farm surplus, use that surplus to manage unforeseen circumstances, and to restock to lower levels of the farm to keep the conveyor belt stocked...

This keeps the talent level high... the contracts low... and to the degree that trades are made, we are acquiring players that are in their prime, at a discount, with a few years of control... rather than being the idiots that write big long contracts for peak and past-peak players that are on the down slope.

I think it's a pretty sound strategy. And as a fan, I'd be thrilled to see the Orioles field a perpetual contender with a payroll in the bottom third of baseball, and stay healthy.

Now saying this seems to invoke all sorts of unthinking and emotional tirades among the less stable participants here... including characterizations of my personal opinion of Angelos one way or the other...  These comments are kind of silly, and certainly childish... but they are nothing if not predicable.

Best to you in either case.

 

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

A surplus of talent that they ARE legitimately wasting?  I’d say that’s premature.  What talent has been wasted to this point?

One could argue that a few weeks to a couple months of Ortiz, Cowser and Kjerstad's primes were wasted at AAA last season. It seems clear that all three have nothing left to prove at that level and should be on a Major League roster on Opening Day, but barring trade or injury, only one will as of now.

[dystopia]

Any thoughts on whether the pitch clock contributed to Cease’s down year last year?

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

One could argue that a few weeks to a couple months of Ortiz, Cowser and Kjerstad's primes were wasted at AAA last season. It seems clear that all three have nothing left to prove at that level and should be on a Major League roster on Opening Day, but barring trade or injury, only one will as of now.

A few weeks could be argued?  Gimme a break.   

[ThisIsBirdland]

WS board insider leaning into a Heyman report that the WS like Westburg. Insider is speculating that Westburg is too good to be a 2nd piece, and asking what their side would want with him as the headliner. He floated Westburg, Beavers, Wagner and McDermott. How would Os fans feel about that deal?

[Satyr3206]

6 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

WS board insider leaning into a Heyman report that the WS like Westburg. Insider is speculating that Westburg is too good to be a 2nd piece, and asking what their side would want with him as the headliner. He floated Westburg, Beavers, Wagner and McDermott. How would Os fans feel about that deal?

I don't want to give up McDermott. But that being said, I would do that deal.

[Tryptamine]

I know this is the Cease thread, but I've seen Roberts name come up a few times and the people bringing him up are incredibly low on what it would take to get him. Luis Robert would take a package bigger than what San Diego gave up for Soto. We're taking like 3 to 4 top 100 guys, a couple of them in the top quarter and a helium guy besides.

He's under contract 12.5M in '24, 15M in '25 and the WSox have options for him in '26 and '27 at 20M each. For a 26 year old, coming off a 5fWAR season that is way way below market price. He's basically not tradeable because no one is going to give up the required package it would take. Trying to get him and Cease would take a prospect package unlike one that has ever been seen as far as I can recall.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

WS board insider leaning into a Heyman report that the WS like Westburg. Insider is speculating that Westburg is too good to be a 2nd piece, and asking what their side would want with him as the headliner. He floated Westburg, Beavers, Wagner and McDermott. How would Os fans feel about that deal?

I’m trading Povich, not McDermott.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m trading Povich, not McDermott.

So McDermott is a deal breaker for you?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

So McDermott is a deal breaker for you?

Maybe…it just depends on a lot of factors I don’t know.

But I’d be surprised if we had to include him over Povich to get a deal done.