Cease vs everyone else

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, deward said:

At least when it comes to Mayo, a little? He wouldn't have been there if the 2020 high school season hadn't been canceled. And neither of the other two are anywhere near the level of Adley, Gunnar, or Holliday, which is my point. 

You can’t lump Gunnar in there.  Gunnar was a second round pick that no one was super high on until last year (4 years after he was drafted).  A lot of people think he out performed the 1.1 unanimous pick.  That was my point. 

Edited January 14 by emmett16

[emmett16]

Just now, ChicagoTerp said:

Great point. As someone who lived in Chicago for several years, and even went to grad school on the south side, Wrigley is where it's at.

White Sox, Mets & Angels fans make me scratch my head. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

So you’d agree that Ryu or Paxton would be a step backwards? 

Kyle Gibson has had an ERA over 5.00 or close to 5.00 four out of the last five seasons. I'm not sure it's even possible to take a step backwards from him. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

The guy hit a measley 3 homeruns last season. His stats don't look great. No thanks. 

In terms of total value produced, the Orioles would probably "lose" a Cease-for-Westburg straight up trade.

If the Getz can get Westburg+ for Cease and he declines that, then he really is as big of a goof as people are joking that he is.

[emmett16]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So you’d agree that Ryu or Paxton would be a step backwards? 

Which pitcher (that we are rumored to be interested in) would you prefer?

A. Career era 3.69 / ERA+ 112 / FIP 3.46 / BB9 2.8 / K9 9.9 / WHIP 1.24

B. Career era 3.83 / ERA+ 113 / FIP 3.86 / BB9 4.0 / K9 10.8 / WHIP 1.35 

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Kyle Gibson has had an ERA over 5.00 or close to 5.00 four out of the last five seasons. I'm not sure it's even possible to take a step backwards from him. 

Sure it is ….from a guy that’s available for 50-75 innings due to injuries.  

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You can’t lump Gunnar in there.  Gunnar was a second round pick that no one was super high on until last year (4 years after he was drafted).  A lot of people think he out performed the 1.1 unanimous pick.  That was my point. 

This is not in the slightest bit accurate. Gunnar was a 1st round talent that got overslot money by the Orioles. In 2020, despite only having 121 PAs in the Gulf Coast League, the Orioles thought enough of him to bring him into the Bowie auxiliary camp with mostly advanced minor league players and AAAA depth guys.

He's never been out on my top ten list since being drafted. After his 2021 season most national publications lists had him in the top 100 prospects going into 2022.

So I'm not sure you can say non one was super high until last year.

 

[deward]

17 hours ago, owknows said:

So is it your contention that this nullifies the value of the strategies he was attempting to advance?

Beane was a good GM, but the whole Moneyball thing is a bit overblown. His first A's teams were built around premium talent (Tejada, Chavez, Giambi, and of course Mulder, Hudson, and Zito). The franchise then slowly slid back into mediocrity as most of those guys left and couldn't be replaced with the same level of talent. And even Beane paid out to keep Chavez to build around. He did eventually rebuild back into a contender, but it took five years of never getting above .500. In fact, after 2006 (the last season he had at least two players from that first group of talent that he inherited), Beane's record was basically .500 (1247-1242). That's not unimpressive, given the restrictions he was operating under, but it doesn't seem like the most desirable path to emulate. 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Which pitcher (that we are rumored to be interested in) would you prefer?

A. Career era 3.69 / ERA+ 112 / FIP 3.46 / BB9 2.8 / K9 9.9 / WHIP 1.24

B. Career era 3.83 / ERA+ 113 / FIP 3.86 / BB9 4.0 / K9 10.8 / WHIP 1.35 

We need a guy that can be counted on for 150+ innings. If that came from A that would be fine. If it came from B …. It’s Cease and the walks are an issue. Neither Paxton or Ryu can be counted on to give us that. Cease asking price is beyond ridiculous, the only player I’m giving 2 top 100 and 2 of my other highly coveted prospects is a guy that we have for 4-5 years or a guy that Angelos can be persuaded to extend shortly after signing.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We need a guy that can be counted on for 150+ innings. If that came from A that would be fine. If it came from B …. It’s Cease and the walks are an issue. Neither Paxton or Ryu can be counted on to give us that. Cease asking price is beyond ridiculous, the only player I’m giving 2 top 100 and 2 of my other highly coveted prospects is a guy that we have for 4-5 years or a guy that Angelos can be persuaded to extend shortly after signing.

I'm pretty sure I can throw eephus pitches and 60 MPH fastballs for 150+ innings. Does that make me a better option than Paxton or Ryu? 

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is not in the slightest bit accurate. Gunnar was a 1st round talent that got overslot money by the Orioles. In 2020, despite only having 121 PAs in the Gulf Coast League, the Orioles thought enough of him to bring him into the Bowie auxiliary camp with mostly advanced minor league players and AAAA depth guys.

He's never been out on my top ten list since being drafted. After his 2021 season most national publications lists had him in the top 100 prospects going into 2022.

So I'm not sure you can say non one was super high until last year.

 

I know you’ve been high on him, so yea, I can’t say no one.  But rewind 2 years before his meteoric rise through the system (even having had performed well and been overslot) no posters or national media would have bet on him putting up more WAR that Adley the unanimous 1.1.   The context of my comment comes from showing players drafted after 1st round can be impact and that we aren’t relying on high 1st round picks to build up the farm.  Point taken nonetheless.  

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We need a guy that can be counted on for 150+ innings. If that came from A that would be fine. If it came from B …. It’s Cease and the walks are an issue. Neither Paxton or Ryu can be counted on to give us that. Cease asking price is beyond ridiculous, the only player I’m giving 2 top 100 and 2 of my other highly coveted prospects is a guy that we have for 4-5 years or a guy that Angelos can be persuaded to extend shortly after signing.

Thats fair, if you’re looking for innings.  Pitcher A (Paxton) is a question mark with regards to how much he can give you.  I do think he could surprise and be a very good pitcher next year if healthy.  He could be the steal of the off-season.   Pitcher B (Cease) is probably a good bet for giving you innings, but his penchant for walking batters at an alarming clip would be a post season heart attack. 

[Roll Tide]

39 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm pretty sure I can throw eephus pitches and 60 MPH fastballs for 150+ innings. Does that make me a better option than Paxton or Ryu? 

Seriously… you’re just trolling.

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Thats fair, if you’re looking for innings.  Pitcher A (Paxton) is a question mark with regards to how much he can give you.  I do think he could surprise and be a very good pitcher next year if healthy.  He could be the steal of the off-season.   Pitcher B (Cease) is probably a good bet for giving you innings, but his penchant for walking batters at an alarming clip would be a post season heart attack. 

And the cost it too high.

[RZNJ]

51 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is not in the slightest bit accurate. Gunnar was a 1st round talent that got overslot money by the Orioles. In 2020, despite only having 121 PAs in the Gulf Coast League, the Orioles thought enough of him to bring him into the Bowie auxiliary camp with mostly advanced minor league players and AAAA depth guys.

He's never been out on my top ten list since being drafted. After his 2021 season most national publications lists had him in the top 100 prospects going into 2022.

So I'm not sure you can say non one was super high until last year.

 

There’s high and then there’s super high.  Baseball America had him at #57 before the 2022 season.  He was #1 after the year.