What are the odds that Holliday makes the Opening Day roster?

[Can_of_corn]

I was just going by the extremely simplistic guideline that a replacement level team will win about 48 games, so if the O's are projected 40 wins higher....88.

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Pretty close to Steamer, overall higher on the pitching but lower on the position players. About 1 WAR lower on Adley and Gunnar than Steamer, but likes Mullins more. Very strong projection on Bradish and a bit light on Grayson. And ZIPS continues its love affair with Dean Kremer. 

He also tweeted that the ZIPS top 100 prospect list is going to have Basallo very high. It projects him for an 87 wRC+ right now, which is extremely good for a 19 year old catcher. 

That playing time doesn't look realist to me at all.

Holliday will not be the primary SS next year.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was just going by the extremely simplistic guideline that a replacement level team will win about 48 games, so if the O's are projected 40 wins higher....88.

Yes, but for whatever reason it doesn’t work like that with adding the WAR from the projections to 48. I think the reason is that all of the projections across all teams collectively are higher than the amount of WAR actually accrued in an season due to not really projecting injuries (they will project lower player time for oft injured players, but that doesn’t fully cover it). 

With the current depth charts I think Fangraphs would project the Orioles for something like 85 wins, give or take 1-2 in either direction based on strength of schedule. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That playing time doesn't look realist to me at all.

Holliday will not be the primary SS next year.

Holliday is projected for 126 games currently, which is about what he would get if called up right after the April deadline for an extra year of control. That amount is done manually and they’ll change the depth charts manually based on whatever happens. If he’s sent down to start the year they’ll probably set him to a much lower number until he is called back up. 

Holliday is projected to be the best infielder behind Gunnar so the total projected team WAR will only decrease if he’s sent down. But the difference between him and Joey Ortiz or even Urias/Mateo is probably not super large. 

[Pickles]

46 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Holliday is projected for 126 games currently, which is about what he would get if called up right after the April deadline for an extra year of control. That amount is done manually and they’ll change the depth charts manually based on whatever happens. If he’s sent down to start the year they’ll probably set him to a much lower number until he is called back up. 

Holliday is projected to be the best infielder behind Gunnar so the total projected team WAR will only decrease if he’s sent down. But the difference between him and Joey Ortiz or even Urias/Mateo is probably not super large. 

He'll stay down long enough to ensure that he's not the rookie of the year.  That's my prediction.

[Can_of_corn]

Why would they want to do that?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would they want to do that?

The top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting in each league are automatically awarded a full year of service, regardless of how much they actually accrued that year.

[Can_of_corn]

Sure.  So why would they pull an Adley again?

That's just stupid and I don't think any of us think Elias is stupid.

[Billy F-Face3]

Elias is probably thinking Kjerstad is his prime candidate for Rookie Of The Year for the 2024 season. So that would lower Jackson's odds even more of being on the opening day roster.

Of course, this is all speculation until Spring Training happens.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Pickles said:

That playing time doesn't look realist to me at all.

Holliday will not be the primary SS next year.

If he’s ready to produce 2.8 WAR, he’ll get the chance to do it.  But I was pretty shocked by that projection.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If he’s ready to produce 2.8 WAR, he’ll get the chance to do it.  But I was pretty shocked by that projection.  

I think the 2.8 WAR is overly generous on defensive value, since there’s a good chance he will play 2B instead of SS. The projected .255/.350/.383 and 108 wRC+ sounds about right. If he did that with average MLB SS defense then it makes sense it would come out to 2.5-3 WAR. 

I’d also note that ROY voters have gotten increasingly analytically-minded but a .250 average and modest power is the type of player that would historically not garner attention, even if they are producing huge value through walks and defense. Holliday would certainly be boosted by the #1 prospect hype, though. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

9 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Yes, but for whatever reason it doesn’t work like that with adding the WAR from the projections to 48. I think the reason is that all of the projections across all teams collectively are higher than the amount of WAR actually accrued in an season due to not really projecting injuries (they will project lower player time for oft injured players, but that doesn’t fully cover it). 

With the current depth charts I think Fangraphs would project the Orioles for something like 85 wins, give or take 1-2 in either direction based on strength of schedule. 

Well, I’m not sure how this math adds up, but I’ll take it!

The full-team ZIPS projections for the Orioles were much higher than the Depth Charts Fangraphs projections last year as well (which are the main “Fangraphs” projections that get the most attention). That’s a really strong ZIPS projection, very happy to see it.

It makes much more logical sense too - even with a lot of “luck” in clutch hitting and outperforming BaseRuns by ~10 wins, that’s still a 90 win “true talent” team last year that’s not losing a lot of key players and has tons of young talent coming up / still improving. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think the 2.8 WAR is overly generous on defensive value, since there’s a good chance he will play 2B instead of SS. The projected .255/.350/.383 and 108 wRC+ sounds about right. 

That’s Steamer only for now, right?  It will be interesting to see what ZiPS says, given the comps Szymborski has tossed out.  

Edit: I wrote this before I saw Szymborski’s latest missive that you posted.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Frobby

[Pickles]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.  So why would they pull an Adley again?

That's just stupid and I don't think any of us think Elias is stupid.

That's the whole point.  They're not going to pull that again.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's the whole point.  They're not going to pull that again.

Adley didn't win ROTY.

OH!

You meant that he wouldn't win or finish second in ROTY voting.

I get it now.

Why didn't you say that?

BTW I'm pretty sure Elias thought he had kept Adley down long enough that he couldn't pull off his second place finish so it might not be as easy to walk the tightrope as you think.