Santander for Bieber

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I’m open to finding a SP upgrade some other way.  But I think in many cases the cost will be greater than Santander.  

On the one hand, trading Ortiz and Norby might be technically costlier. However, if Norby has no path, and Ortiz has barely factored into the team/lineup, and the SP you acquire will absolutely improve your rotation, I see that as less costlier to WS hopes than removing a proven bat like Santander. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Some people here want to keep all the veterans and play the kids too.  There is just not enough room.  I'm not sure I'm a big fan of trading Santander for Bieber, but it's something I could see Elias doing if the cost is too much for Cease or comparable pitcher in a trade.  We can already see the starting pitching market shaping up to be very expensive.  The choices either seem to be trade for a starter or sign another Lyles/Gibson innings eater.  I am saying choices because of likely financial constraints put on by JA.

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Some people here want to keep all the veterans and play the kids too.  There is just not enough room.  I'm not sure I'm a big fan of trading Santander for Bieber, but it's something I could see Elias doing if the cost is too much for Cease or comparable pitcher in a trade.  We can already see the starting pitching market shaping up to be very expensive.  The choices either seem to be trade for a starter or sign another Lyles/Gibson innings eater.  I am saying choices because of likely financial constraints put on by JA.

Fun fact: There's actually plenty of room!

Let's say Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Kjerstad all make the 26-man roster out of ST:

Against RHP:

Mullins - CF
Adley - C
Henderson - SS
Santander - DH
O'Hearn - 1B
Kjerstad - RF
Cowser - LF
Westburg - 3B
Holliday - 2B

Bench: McCann, Ortiz, Hilliard/McKenna, Mountcastle

In this scenario, Hays, Urias, Mateo, and one of Hilliard and McKenna don't make the team. I don't think anyone is really losing sleep over that. Santander is a veteran anchor to a lineup full of promising young hitters, and the best part is you can have both. Of course, this setup makes it a little harder to upgrade your rotation (maybe you can package Hays, Norby, and a young pitcher or two). But the point of the exercise here is to demonstrate that there's plenty of room for Santander and even Mountcastle, even when virtually all the young guys make the team.

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by interloper

[E-D-D-I-E]

Trade Santander for a starting pitcher. I would prefer Burnes, but I would take Bieber.

-Santander plays a position that we have MLB ready prospects. (Cowser/Kjerstad/Norby?)

-His Offense, IMO, can be made up with the current roster(Kjerstad should be good for 20 homers. Is Westburg going to hit 4 homers? Adley going to hit 20? Will Gunnar wake up in June again?)

-A solid starting pitcher is a MUST add , to this roster (IMO, 2 (I have zero faith in John Means making 25 starts)

-Santander is in his last season with the Orioles, regardless (No extension forthcoming)

[Three Run Homer]

I voted no.  I'm not opposed to trading Santander, but for me Bieber has too much injury and performance risk.  

[OriolesMagic83]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

On the one hand, trading Ortiz and Norby might be technically costlier. However, if Norby has no path, and Ortiz has barely factored into the team/lineup, and the SP you acquire will absolutely improve your rotation, I see that as less costlier to WS hopes than removing a proven bat like Santander. 

I'm personally not a fan of Bieber.  I'm not a Belieber lol.  I see him as a #4 type starter, which is why Cleveland is planning on trading him.  If the O's can trade for a better starter w/o giving up Holliday Basallo, Mayo or Kjerstad, that's the route I would take. 

Seems like there is 2 sides here.  JA wants to keep payroll low.  I'll believe that payroll will be substantially raised when I see it.  Elias doesn't want to give up too much prospect capital.  Will be interesting what the intersection produces.

[Since1984]

33 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

This question of Santander gone comes up every so often.  Remember the net gain for replacing such a bat is what is Over and Above Santanders production in an average year.  Some hurdle before there is a net gain in HR,  and  RBI.  And as was said without saying it, we do not have the Texas offense, not close.   We probably  would   really miss him.

I agree that the 2023 Orioles would miss Santander’s bat, but 2024 has far more potential to replace his value.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, interloper said:

On the one hand, trading Ortiz and Norby might be technically costlier. However, if Norby has no path, and Ortiz has barely factored into the team/lineup, and the SP you acquire will absolutely improve your rotation, I see that as less costlier to WS hopes than removing a proven bat like Santander. 

Who are we getting for Norby and Ortiz?

[OriolesMagic83]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

Fun fact: There's actually plenty of room!

Let's say Holliday, Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Kjerstad all make the 26-man roster out of ST:

Against RHP:

Mullins - CF
Adley - C
Henderson - SS
Santander - DH
O'Hearn - 1B
Kjerstad - RF
Cowser - LF
Westburg - 3B
Holliday - 2B

Bench: McCann, Ortiz, Hilliard/McKenna, Mountcastle

In this scenario, Hays, Urias, Mateo, and one of Hilliard and McKenna don't make the team. I don't think anyone is really losing sleep over that. Santander is a veteran anchor to a lineup full of promising young hitters, and the best part is you can have both. Of course, this setup makes it a little harder to upgrade your rotation (maybe you can package Hays, Norby, and a young pitcher or two). But the point of the exercise here is to demonstrate that there's plenty of room for Santander and even Mountcastle, even when virtually all the young guys make the team.

 

So you're trading Hays?  That's not keeping everyone.  Also, where does Mayo play?  He put up an 1.100 OPS in September.  Seems he's more ready than Holliday.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

So you're trading Hays?  That's not keeping everyone.  Also, where does Mayo play?  He put up an 1.100 OPS in September.  Seems he's more ready than Holliday.

If it makes you feel better you can keep Hays and put Cowser in AAA for now. Obviously my point remains - there's PLENTY of room to mix in most of the young guys. 

Mayo is not making this team out ST, but he'll be up the second Mountcastle is injured. Or, if you prefer, you can trade Mountcastle. Or, if you prefer, you can put Holliday at AAA for now and add Mayo. There's lots of possibilities.

Objectively, though, Santander is the best bat out of the current veteran group consisting of himself, Mullins, Hays, and Mountcastle. So my preference is to keep him, and fit as many young guys in as possible, which is very doable. 

It doesn't have to be either Santander or Kjerstad. Both guys fit in the lineup, and now your lineup looks pretty awesome. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by interloper

[forphase1]

If the health reports look good,  make the deal.   I think Santander can be largely replaced by internal options, he's a good,  but not great player,  and we'd be dealing from a position of strength, position players,  to shore up a weakness,  the pitching.  Plus we move a player who is gone after this year anyway,  while keeping the kids who can contribute for the next 5-7 years.   Do it. 

[wse120372]

I voted yes. My theory is this offseason is the last one to get a return on Santander prior to him hitting FA. To me, a trade for MLB prospects doesn't make sense. So it's a group of 18 or 19 year old lottery scratch offs or someone already on a MLB roster. 

Bieber is a FA after 24 as well. You can use the QO on him if he pitches well. I see no reasonable scenario where you use the QO on Santander.  

Overall, I can see why this would make sense. I'd neither love it or hate it.

[Since1984]

Voted yes, assuming the physical is good. A good 2024 season for Bieber = QO!  

[MarCakes21]

I'm on the yes side.  I think we have some ML ready talent ready to put up a 100+ OPS+ metrics in his place and Bieber can fill a back end slot.

We also talk a lot of trading Santander, there's many ways you could shake this.  If you think you can get more out of a signing for ERod + a trade for MIL pieces for Santander than you do that too.  I'd take 3-4 pieces from another team if theyre willing to pay to allow some current slots to open up.  Same thing with Hays.  But you have to be able to sign the SP too.

The other option is a straight ML for ML trade with SEA.  

[btdart20]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would be apathetically ambivalent on this deal.

I like Santander, but I don't recognize him as a core piece of this team in 3-4 years from now.  Bieber's K rate has dwindled, his WHIP has crept up.  The one thing I like about him though is that his ERA is always close to his FIP.  And he was at 3.80 last year, we could have used that.

It would also depend if Bieber was our only rotation add for the offseason, too.

Perfect summary!  

I could have easily said yes in a vacuum, but there are better options for a Santander+ package.  I like that it frees up a spot and checks an SP box.  But’s meh…