O's should address the problem they have....

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

36 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'd say Ortiz is blocked as well Holliday, until they do something with Urias and Mateo. They also currently have zero openings in the OF and "technically" at DH where O'Hearn is #1 on the depth chart. I'd prefer to see them trade some of the veterans, to fill their pitching needs, but if they can get a youngish / controllable pitcher I'd be perfectly fine with parting with some of our young hitting depth. All those scenarios sound better to me than gambling on a guy who was recently banished to the Japanese League for four years because he couldn't cut it in MLB. I also don't wan to see Wells used as a starter. I want him exclusively in the bullpen and preferably as the closer unless they sign someone with more experience. And yes Rodriguez and Bradish is potentially a great one two punch, but until Rodriguez in particular shows that level of performance for a full season I think the team would be silly to bank on it. They need another solid arm in the rotation and it should be someone who's an upgrade over Gibson. 

Mateo shouldn’t be blocking anyone the O’s can pawn him off to team with a terrible shortstop situation to make room on the roster. And while I’m a fan of Urias the Orioles can shift him to a utility role or consider including him as part of trade package to land a pitcher. 

[backwardsk]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Thought exercise, is giving Grayson and Bradish for Kirby and Gilbert something you would easily immediately do?

In a hypothetical, yeah, I’d rather have the Seattle duo over the next four years. 

[wildcard]

56 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

@wildcard Do you know how many starts Martinez has made and completed five innings since 2017? 12 total. 8 in 2022 and 4 last year. And you want to give him $22M and pencil him in for 16 starts?

You make great points here.   I was looking at the splits and in 2023 he made 9 starts with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.078 WHIP in 42.2 innings IP as a starter.    He started 4 games at the beginning of the season and then they put him in the pen. He went 7 innings in two of those starts. He started a couple of time in August and the last 3 starts at the end of the season.  He was not stretched out for any of those starts so he went 3 innings.

He pitched 149 inning is 23 games in Japan in 2021.  That is more than 6 innings a start.

Do I like that he has not gone 5 or more innings in his starts?  No.  Do I like committing 20m to him? No.   Do I like spending twice that on 3 years of these other starters. No

I don't that the insight that the O's will have on his ability to make 15 good starts in the majors.  It's does not look like he has had the chance.  He has mainly been a reliever the last two years. But he has pitch over 100 inning is 2022 and 2023.

He will be 33 for most of 2024.

You have give me something to think about.   Thanks for the insightful post.

[backwardsk]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You make great points here.   I was looking at the splits and in 2023 he made 9 starts with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.078 WHIP in 42.2 innings IP as a starter.    He started 4 games at the beginning of the season and then they put him in the pen. He went 7 innings in two of those starts. He started a couple of time in August and the last 3 starts at the end of the season.  He was not stretched out for any of those starts so he went 3 innings.

He pitched 149 inning is 23 games in Japan in 2021.  That is more than 6 innings a start.

Do I like that he has not gone 5 or more innings in his starts?  No.  Do I like committing 20m to him? No.   Do I like spending twice that on 3 years of these other starters. No

I don't that the insight that the O's will have on his ability to make 15 good starts in the majors.  It's does not look like he has had the chance.  He has mainly been a reliever the last two years. But he has pitch over 100 inning is 2022 and 2023.

He will be 33 for most of 2024.

You have give me something to think about.   Thanks for the insightful post.

To me, he resembles Trevor Williams  who signed with the Nationals. A guy who can give you length and pitch fairly well in the bullpen. Can make a start from time to time. But gets totally exposed when deployed as a full time starter. He would be below Plan E for me. Especially if that’s the only move to address the rotation.

To add, I would not be in favor for this team to target their three guys you listed earlier on three year deals either. I just believe that the rotation should and can be improved with other realistic options. 
 

My first option would be to go after Gray on a short term, high dollar deal (ex 2/54-56) and see where that gets you. He talked about retiring after this season. Talk is talk. Trevor Bauer said he would  only go year to year until he signed a big deal with LAD. But if those thoughts are in his mind, and he wants to chase a ring, then Baltimore is as good as any place to do that. If the market expects 3/69 for him and a guy like Gibson can get 1/12, this could be appealing to him.

Edited November 22, 2023 by backwardsk

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Lots of others already responded to you already here with similar things to what I might say. But here's my version:

I think GRod/Bradish definitely might be a top duo in the league for years to come. But you just can't assume that will happen every year. 2023 may have been Bradish's peak. Even if Grayson has ace years in his future, he might stay an inconsistent 4.x ERA guy for a while longer as he develops. These guys are early in their career and it's just very hard to predict where things go with pitchers. And that's before you even consider the health angle that many people have brought up. 

OK.  Do you think the O's are going to spend 4/80 for ERod or 3/60 for Giolito?   I am not against it.  I just don't think it will happen.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

To me, he resembles Trevor Williams  who signed with the Nationals. A guy who can give you length and pitch fairly well in the bullpen. Can make a start from time to time. But gets totally exposed when deployed as a full time starter. He would be below Plan E for me. Especially if that’s the only move to address the rotation.

He has 5 pitches.  93m 4 steamer.  The cutter and sinker got hit in 2023 but were good in 2022.  That is a starter mix.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-martinez-607259?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Edited November 22, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

I think this comes down to the O's are not going to find a 5th starter that is better the Wells for 15 starts.   3.30 ERA is hard to beat.   They need to add a starter to pitch the other 15 starts.

And they need a backend right-handed reliever.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

OK.  Do you think the O's are going to spend 4/80 for ERod or 3/60 for Giolito?   I am not against it.  I just don't think it will happen.

Is anyone going to pay Giolito 3/$60 mm after having an 81/91 ERA+ the last two years?   Fangraphs crowdsource says 2/$30 mm. Ben Clemens says 4/$60 mm, MLBTR says 2/$44 mm.  I’ll split the difference and say 3/$50 mm.

 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Is anyone going to pay Giolito 3/$60 mm after having an 81/91 ERA+ the last two years?   Fangraphs crowdsource says 2/$30 mm. Ben Clemens says 4/$60 mm, MLBTR says 2/$44 mm.  I’ll split the difference and say 3/$50 mm.

 

And do you think the O's would do that?

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

And do you think the O's would do that?

I have no idea.  Probably not.    

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have no idea.  Probably not.    

One year too long.

Edited November 22, 2023 by wildcard

[Jagwar]

David Schoenfield at ESPN thinks the O's should trade Mayo for Burnes and then sign Jordan Hicks 4/44

[E-D-D-I-E]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

How many teams have two #1 for the next 5 years like GRod and Bradish?

Some big assumptions there. Not to mention no way does Means even give us 20 starts.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

David Schoenfield at ESPN thinks the O's should trade Mayo for Burnes and then sign Jordan Hicks 4/44

6 years of Mayo is huge.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Some big assumptions there. Not to mention no way does Means even give us 20 starts.

I think the only way we agree on that is when it happens.   Means is a bulldog