John Means contract

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That could happen, though if there was a prop bet on 150 innings, I’d probably take the under.  It’s certainly far from out of the question that he’s around 150.  

But let’s say he does.  Do people think that teams are then going to offer him  4-5 years at $20 mm per season for years 32 through 35-36?   I don’t.  
 

Lets say Means goes 13-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 150 innings in 2024. Then goes free agent.   He will probably get  at least 3/60m maybe a lot more for his 32-34 years.

Edited November 26, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Lets say Means goes 13-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 150 innings in 2024. Then goes free agent.   He will probably get  at least 3/60m maybe a lot more for his year 32-34.

I’d say there’s a decent chance you are right in that hypothetical.   If his innings are significantly lower or his ERA significantly higher, not so much.  If I were a guy with Means’ history I’d certainly be willing to take a steep discount off those kind of numbers in an extension right now in order to lock in my long term financial security.  This is not a guy who’s made a fortune during his Arb years.  

Edited November 26, 2023 by Frobby

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

WC I respect your enthusiasm but saying JM will "probably" pitch 150 innings is is bordering on fantasy. You said "if healthy" but that qualifier applies to every pitcher, every year. Did they not monitor Wells last year? Hyde kept pitching him until he crashed, yet again. You say they don't care about innings but Bradish only went from117 in 2022 to 168 and Grod went from 69 at AAA in 2022 to 163 combined. Means rehabbed for like 16 months and only got thru 24 innings before being shut down with a sore elbow. The likelihood of JM going from 24 to 150 innings is very low. Certainly too low to count on it in 2024 when you say Elias "is going for it".

Apples and Oranges.   I like Wells at lot for how effective he can be for half a season.  But Wells is not John Means.   Wells has never pitched over 120 innings in his life.  Means has pitched 150 innings 3 times.  

Means will have a full of season with his normal workouts to prepare for 2024.   He will come to ST in his normal shape.   He is used to preparing for 150 innings and knows how to do that.

Edited November 26, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say there’s a decent chance you are right in that hypothetical.   If his innings are significantly lower or his ERA significantly higher, not so much.  If I were a guy with Means’ history I’d certainly be willing to take a steep discount off those kind of numbers in an extension right now in order to lock in my long term financial security.  This is not a guy who’s made a fortune during his Arb years.  

That is what I am saying.  3/35-40 may look real good to Means this off season.

And John is a bulldog.  Very determined individual.  He could pitch more than 150 innings and pitch to a lower ERA.  We don't always have to assume  the down side of everything.

[Just Regular]

Stuff+ thought Sept-Oct 2023 the Orioles SP behind the two lead dogs was Means 104, Kremer 99, Gibson 96.     Means' readout there was ~70th percentile among all MLB Arms covering 20 innings that month.

Means yearlong body of work in MLB was 339 pitches.     He faced STL-HOU-CLE-BOS.    CLE/HOU were two of top three Clubs with fewest strikeouts, STL 9th, BOS 13th.      Between September thousand yard stares for golf tees and four contact-oriented lineups, I'd give him something of a grace on the K rate.

Like Gibson and Kremer, for me he's a relatively low variance bulk innings pitcher.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Apples and Oranges.   I like Wells at lot for how effective he can be for half a season.  But Wells is not John Means.   Wells has never pitched over 120 innings is his life.  Means has pitched 150 inning 3 times.  

Means will have a full of season with his normal workouts to prepare for 2024.   He will come to ST in his normal shape.   He is used to preparing for 150 innings and knows how to do that.

He pitched 133 in 2023.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He pitched 133 in 2023.

He is still not John Means.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He is still not John Means.

Ahh "debate" with Wildcard.

WC-Fact

NotWC- That's not a fact because...

WC-

A- Ignore

B- Random irrelevant statement

C- Talking with you isn't productive.

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Aaron Nola is a year younger than Means and has thrown more than triple the number of innings Means has thrown in his career.  He’s thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title 7 years in a row, and often a lot more than that.   Means has never once thrown enough innings to qualify.   There’s no comparison between the two when it comes to reliability.   

I'm not saying Means should get Nola's contract. I'm just saying (when healthy) they're similarly effective pitchers. I don't think the differences in their health are worth the difference between the 2/31 proposed extension for Means and the 7/172 Nola got. If I'm Means's agent, unless the elbow is way worse than reported, I'm advising him to decline wildcard's extension offer. 

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

What are the chances he does that in 2024? I think it is highly unlikely. I genuinely hope that I am wrong because that would be an enormous benefit to the team, but he is very unlikely to be that durable or that effective. 

I'd give it 50%, maybe less. He does have a brand new elbow.

I'm not saying I'd offer Means a 4/80 or 5/90 extension right now. Just saying that's what it would probably take to get him to sign on the line right now assuming the elbow injury is actually incredibly minor.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

That is what I am saying.  3/35-40 may look real good to Means this off season.

And John is a bulldog.  Very determined individual.  He could pitch more than 150 innings and pitch to a lower ERA.  We don't always have to assume  the down side of everything.

I don’t assume anything.  I do think the downside risk is greater than the upside, based on those numbers.  Like you, I like John Means’ mentality.   That’s not always enough though.  I remember vividly the discussions about extending Chris Tillman for 4-6 years when he was a year away from free agency, for $80 mm or so.  He ended up making $13 mm the rest of his career and throwing to an 8.42 ERA over 119.2 innings.  It wasn’t because Tillman lacked a bulldog mentality.  

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t assume anything.  I do think the downside risk is greater than the upside, based on those numbers.  Like you, I like John Means’ mentality.   That’s not always enough though.  I remember vividly the discussions about extending Chris Tillman for 4-6 years when he was a year away from free agency, for $80 mm or so.  He ended up making $13 mm the rest of his career and throwing to an 8.42 ERA over 119.2 innings.  It wasn’t because Tillman lacked a bulldog mentality.  

I don't think I ever purposed that.   I am for a two year extension to Means passed his current team control.

[Billy F-Face3]

The odds of John means making it through a full season without missing a start in 2024 seem to be less than 50% chance beings he has missed 2 seasons and coming off of a major surgery on this throwing arm.  Like Can_of_Corn pointed out, he wasn't able to pitch in the playoffs because of his arm getting sore.

There is alot to be concerned about and to monitor regarding his physical health. It's not reasonable to automatically assume he can pitch 190 innings. If he can, than that would be the best of anything we can hope for, but it's not the probability.

[Can_of_corn]

Means had a setback (left teres major strain) when he was rehabbing and wasn't healthy enough to pitch in the playoffs.  That combined with a K rate half his career number when he did come back keeps me from advocating a multi-year deal without more data.

[Sports Guy]

Means has 2 seasons of over 25 starts but has never hit 30 starts.

He is coming off a major surgery and yet the thought it to throw him 3 years worth of guaranteed money, on a team that doesn’t spend money.

So, let’s have an oft injured (albeit very solid) pitcher make 10-15% of our payroll before he proves anything.

There is absolutely zero logic behind that.