John Means contract

[RZNJ]

I like the idea of guaranteeing enough money that Means is tempted but not enough to hurt the team under a worst case scenario.    If you were to offer a 3/21 (including 2024) guarantee with 3M per year in incentives making it potentially a 3/30 deal it might make sense and you might wind up with a bargain.   When Means has pitched, he’s been good.  

Edited November 27, 2023 by RZNJ

[wildcard]

55 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

The odds of John means making it through a full season without missing a start in 2024 seem to be less than 50% chance beings he has missed 2 seasons and coming off of a major surgery on this throwing arm.  Like Can_of_Corn pointed out, he wasn't able to pitch in the playoffs because of his arm getting sore.

There is alot to be concerned about and to monitor regarding his physical health. It's not reasonable to automatically assume he can pitch 190 innings. If he can, than that would be the best of anything we can hope for, but it's not the probability.

I agree.  32 starts and 190 IP is improbable.    But he has gone 26 starts and 150 IP which is what I believe he can do again.  And that has value.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree.  32 starts and 190 IP is improbable.    But he has gone 26 starts and 150 IP which is what I believe he can do again.  And that has value.

Sure..but can he do it for the next 3 years when he has only done in 2 years so far?

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..but can he do it for the next 3 years when he has only done in 2 years so far?

3

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

3

3 what 

[Just Regular]

From 2015-2018 in the Minors, John Means was one of two pitchers to exceed 9000 pitches.

1st place was Austin Voth, if that's a breadcrumb that the Orioles like guys who are durable at their craft.

He wasn't good enough for the Show for a long time, but one of the things I believe about him is the overall health track record is strong.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree.  32 starts and 190 IP is improbable.    But he has gone 26 starts and 150 IP which is what I believe he can do again.  And that has value.

I have used Alex Cobb as a comp for Means in his Arb case before.  Cobb missed the better part of two seasons with TJ surgery in his Arb 1/2 years, throwing 22 September innings in the latter season.  Then in his Arb 3 year, first full year back, he made 29 starts and threw a career high 179.1 innings.  He was able to ride that to a 4/$57 mm contract with the Orioles, but threw only 152.1, 12.1, and 52.1 innings (60 game season) the next three years before we traded him.   

Cobb illustrates both the good and the bad possibilities with Mesns.  
 

[E-D-D-I-E]

Trusting Means is a dangerous game. He can't stay healthy no matter how much we would like it to happen. No way would I extend him. 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I have used Alex Cobb as a comp for Means in his Arb case before.  Cobb missed the better part of two seasons with TJ surgery in his Arb 1/2 years, throwing 22 September innings in the latter season.  Then in his Arb 3 year, first full year back, he made 29 starts and threw a career high 179.1 innings.  He was able to ride that to a 4/$57 mm contract with the Orioles, but threw only 152.1, 12.1, and 52.1 innings (60 game season) the next three years before we traded him.   

Cobb illustrates both the good and the bad possibilities with Mesns.  
 

I don't think Means gets a 4 year deal from the O's.   I doubt any pitcher does.

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

3 what 

He has pitched 150+ innings 3 times.  Once in the minors.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

He has pitched 150+ innings 3 times.  Once in the minors.

Yea that doesn’t count, but at this point in his career.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

Means missed the bulk of 2022-2023 for TJ and recovery.  Beyond that he’s been generally healthy in his career.

2021 - 26 GS

2020 - Covid 10 GS

2019 - 27

2018 - 26

2017 - 24

2016 - 27

2015 - 27

2014 - 10 + 12 in college

He was still healthy in those MiLB starts.  Not sure why they wouldn’t count for determining he availability skill set.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Means missed the bulk of 2022-2023 for TJ and recovery.  Beyond that he’s been generally healthy in his career.

2021 - 26 GS

2020 - Covid 10 GS

2019 - 27

2018 - 26

2017 - 24

2016 - 27

2015 - 27

2014 - 10 + 12 in college

He was still healthy in those MiLB starts.  Not sure why they wouldn’t count for determining he availability skill set.

Because 6+ years ago isn’t relevant to today, especially when he has established himself as an injury prone guy since that time period. You don’t tend to revert to your early to mid 20s form when you are a pro athlete on the wrong side of 30.

He has missed numerous games to shoulder issues and had the TJ surgery since the 2020 season starts. That is what’s relevant.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because 6+ years ago isn’t relevant to today, especially when he has established himself as an injury prone guy since that time period. You don’t tend to revert to your early to mid 20s form when you are a pro athlete on the wrong side of 30.

He has missed numerous games to shoulder issues and had the TJ surgery since the 2020 season starts. That is what’s relevant.

Recency matters, sure.  But I wouldn’t label him “injury prone” because he’s one of the many who need TJ.  TJ is a big deal and can have a chain reaction impact too (like back issues).  That’s the concern, not his history.

2024 is important for him.  And why I still would hold the line and QO him if he is who he was.  @wildcardis “buying low” but also buying risk.  I don’t see Elias doing that as is.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Recency matters, sure.  But I wouldn’t label him “injury prone” because he’s one of the many who need TJ.  TJ is a big deal and can have a chain reaction impact too (like back issues).  That’s the concern, not his history.

2024 is important for him.  And why I still would hold the line and QO him if he is who he was.  @wildcardis “buying low” but also buying risk.  I don’t see Elias doing that as is.

Do you not think it’s relevant that he had IL stints in 2019, 2020 and 2021?