Ohtani

[E-D-D-I-E]

I am sure this has been beaten to death, but just in case, I wanted to add a comment.

Am I the only one who thinks the contract numbers for Ohtani are insane? Not financially irresponsible, but INSANE.

The odds that he comes back as a starters are 50/50 at best., after 2nd TJ. IF he cannot, you possibly have a late innings reliever and an outfielder for $40+mil per? Soto is making what? $27mil in Arb?

I cannot fathom a team making that kind of offer, when there is a 25% possibility that he can't pitch at all...

(For the record the comparisons to Ruth are comical. But thats another thread.)

What am I missing?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I am sure this has been beaten to death, but just in case, I wanted to add a comment.

Am I the only one who thinks the contract numbers for Ohtani are insane? Not financially irresponsible, but INSANE.

The odds that he comes back as a starters are 50/50 at best., after 2nd TJ. IF he cannot, you possibly have a late innings reliever and an outfielder for $40+mil per? Soto is making what? $27mil in Arb?

I cannot fathom a team making that kind of offer, when there is a 25% possibility that he can't pitch at all...

(For the record the comparisons to Ruth are comical. But thats another thread.)

What am I missing?

What you’re missing is that the team that signs him can afford it even if it goes bad.  Also, I’m sure Ohtani increases revenue to some extent.

[interloper]

The comparisons to Ruth are actually not at all comical, which is why he's going to get a half billion or more this offseason. 

[Moose Milligan]

I love it when people talk about financial irresponsibility when it's not their money.

[E-D-D-I-E]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

The comparisons to Ruth are actually not at all comical, which is why he's going to get a half billion or more this offseason. 

That to me is laughable. 

Offense: Your comparing one of, if not the greatest hitter EVER in professional baseball to a 40 homer guy in the bigs. I do find that comical. 

Pitching: Ruth was  one of the best pitchers in baseball until a decision was made that he had to play everyday. No one knows how get he could have been on the mound. I do know that for years he held the post season innings scoreless streak. 

The only comparison in my mind is that they are both pitching and hitting. 

 

[E-D-D-I-E]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I love it when people talk about financial irresponsibility when it's not their money.

Well the higher the salaries go, the less chance the mid/small markets have in free agency. So, it is financially irresponsible in the baseball economic structure.

[btdart20]

The level of talent that Ohtani has pitching and hitting hasn’t been seen since Ruth.  And even Ruth didn’t put up his legendary stats pitching and hitting in the same season.  The comps are as close as we can get, fair or not.

I don’t disagree with the insanity point and TJ risk points though.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

That to me is laughable. 

Offense: Your comparing one of, if not the greatest hitter EVER in professional baseball to a 40 homer guy in the bigs. I do find that comical. 

Pitching: Ruth was  one of the best pitchers in baseball until a decision was made that he had to play everyday. No one knows how get he could have been on the mound. I do know that for years he held the post season innings scoreless streak. 

The only comparison in my mind is that they are both pitching and hitting. 

 

We will just have a difference of opinion about this. Babe Ruth would not be able to hang in today's game, in all likelihood. The things that Ohtani has done no one has ever done in the game before. And he's doing it in the most difficult era of baseball with the best athletes who feature wildly hyper-specialized talents. That's just a fact. To Ruth it would feel like he's going up against a team of androids. He'd be toast bro. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

That to me is laughable. 

Offense: Your comparing one of, if not the greatest hitter EVER in professional baseball to a 40 homer guy in the bigs. I do find that comical. 

Pitching: Ruth was  one of the best pitchers in baseball until a decision was made that he had to play everyday. No one knows how get he could have been on the mound. I do know that for years he held the post season innings scoreless streak. 

The only comparison in my mind is that they are both pitching and hitting. 

 

Ruth never did it full time like Ohtani did.  He'd either pitch part time or hit part time.

 

Just now, E-D-D-I-E said:

Well the higher the salaries go, the less chance the mid/small markets have in free agency. So, it is financially irresponsible in the baseball economic structure.

Free agency isn't the only way to build a team.  

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

 Babe Ruth would not be able to hang in today's game, in all likelihood.  

This is also taking the argument a bit too far.  Ruth today would have access to training (in season and off-season), diet and equipment that he didn't have back then.  The difference in park dimensions, how tight the ball is wound and bat size would be huge for him.  If he had any sort of discipline, he could still be a very good player.

He had freak hand/eye coordination, that's always an advantage no matter the era.  I don't believe anyone thinks he'd be as good as he was when he was playing but I do believe he'd still be very good.  To say he "would not be able to hang in today's game" is a bit much, IMO.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The team that can afford Ohtani can ultimately afford to overpay him. I think it's crazy though if any team is making Ohtani an offer thinking he's going to be a pitcher for a majority of the contract.

Ohtani is already on his second serious arm injury in MLB. I have to think he's going to get hurt again or his ability as a pitcher is going to be diminished. I expect in the next few years Ohtani is going to become a full time position player instead of waiting for his arm to break again.  Ohtani was the best hitter in the AL last year and that's enough of a reason to sign him.

 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is also taking the argument a bit too far.  Ruth today would have access to training (in season and off-season), diet and equipment that he didn't have back then.  The difference in park dimensions, how tight the ball is wound and bat size would be huge for him.  If he had any sort of discipline, he could still be a very good player.

He had freak hand/eye coordination, that's always an advantage no matter the era.  I don't believe anyone thinks he'd be as good as he was when he was playing but I do believe he'd still be very good.  To say he "would not be able to hang in today's game" is a bit much, IMO.

Sure I will allow for the fact that if Babe Ruth decided to commit to a totally different diet, adopt a new intense training regimen, embrace analytics, dissect and rebuild his swing path and mechanics, figure out how to throw a modern pitching repertoire with enough shape and spin to get out guys who have been on his brand new training plan since middle school, then ok sure, THEN he could hang. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Sure I will allow for the fact that if Babe Ruth decided to commit to a totally different diet, adopt a new intense training regimen, embrace analytics, dissect and rebuild his swing path and mechanics, figure out how to throw a modern pitching repertoire with enough shape and spin to get out guys who have been on his brand new training plan since middle school, then ok sure, THEN he could hang. 

Good, glad you see things my way.

[Tryptamine]

 

55 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I am sure this has been beaten to death, but just in case, I wanted to add a comment.

Am I the only one who thinks the contract numbers for Ohtani are insane? Not financially irresponsible, but INSANE.

The odds that he comes back as a starters are 50/50 at best., after 2nd TJ. IF he cannot, you possibly have a late innings reliever and an outfielder for $40+mil per? Soto is making what? $27mil in Arb?

I cannot fathom a team making that kind of offer, when there is a 25% possibility that he can't pitch at all...

(For the record the comparisons to Ruth are comical. But thats another thread.)

What am I missing?

Where are we pulling this 50% chance to ever pitch again nonsense from? Think about it like this. An ace pitcher will cost you 25+M a year, a truly elite hitter will cost your 25+M a year. Ohtani is both of those and only takes one roster spot. So 50M annually is completely reasonable. 

[FlaO'sFan]

If I were a GM my offer would be based on him being a position player only, which by itself might be insanely high. If my owners wanted to fork out the money it wouldn't bother me at all. I have never thought he would be able to continue both as a position player and pitcher for any considerable length of time, and I think the times last year when he experienced arm fatigue/soreness and then having a second surgery bear that out. But even without him pitching I would still give him insane money.