Matt Blood on Jackson Holliday

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Did you expect him to say he has no reason to stay in AAA?  He said exactly what you would expect and it doesn’t mean much of anything.

Means about as much as "definitely a strong possibility" of making the team on opening day.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Means about as much as "definitely a strong possibility" of making the team on opening day.

No, that’s relevant in context of, there’s no chance they are waiting until August for him to be in the majors.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How can he prove he is the best player over a short sample of exhibition games? If he makes it l, it will because they have already determined he is the best option.

I disagree.  It’s not just exhibition games.  It’s practice, drills, games and everything considered.  Teams make judgments in spring training every single year.  And they’ll do it with Holliday and several other players.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[glenn__davis]

I've heard multiple Matt Blood interviews about players and he pretty much always tries to be the "wet blanket" to any hype.  He speaks positively but always suggests a deliberate pace.  I remember prior to the 2022 season he said it was not realistic for DL Hall to play in the majors that year.

[E-D-D-I-E]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Are we trying to win the division?  If so, best player plays.  Service time games are for teams where winning is secondary.   

Now, does Holliday have the burden of proof to show he’s clearly the best player?  Yes.  
 

Knowing that this organization doesn't spend/extend, keeping him down for 35 games, for the extra year, is a no-brainer imo. 

 

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No, that’s relevant in context of, there’s no chance they are waiting until August for him to be in the majors.

Not really IMO.  Until they actually do otherwise,  I expect him to get the Gunnar treatment and stay down long enough to get the extra year and,  unless he is just crushing AAA be kept down long enough to keep rookie status for 2025.  I'd love to be proven wrong,  but that's fully what I expect to see.   Statements like definitely a strong possibility sound great,  but unless Holiday just so impresses in the spring that he can't be reasonably sent down, that's what likely happens. 

In a VERY SSS, he hit for under .800 OPS in AAA, well below others, like Ortiz, Cowser, and Kjerstad, all of whom may also start in the minors, depending on whom we trade, acquire and sign.   Now he's a higher talent than any of those,  no doubt.  But that's all the more reason to ensure the organization gets all they can from him,  both in years and ROY possible picks.

Again,  I'd have him on the OD roster, as long as he didn't look overmatched in Spring Training.  But Elias didn't ask for my opinion, and until I see actual action proving otherwise, I'm using the past results to help predict what I expect to see happen.  If they aren't going to spend on talent then to be successful long term they have to maximize what they have.  

[Sports Guy]

He will have to be hurt or playing poorly to not be up here.  I’d hold him off until June but they aren’t waiting until the end of August.  It’s just not happening.

[Billy F-Face3]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

From the WBAL Hot Stove Show on Thursday:

He has a lot of at bats to be seen and just develop his game.  As with any left-handed hitter we want him to see more left-handed pitching.

This is what I keep saying to people here on the Hangout when they suggest any AAA hitter will come up and automatically dominate. I hope they will take a professional like Matt Blood more seriously.

[sportsfan8703]

Unless Gunnar gets hurt, I think we keep Holliday down until after the super two date passes in June. It’s just too valuable and especially if we’re talking extension. 

 

[Tony-OH]

Actually, I think Blood is giving his thoughts very clearly that Holliday is not ready for the big leagues yet. I would agree with him. When you add in that right now the orioles have multiple more mature players ready to play his positions, and I think he's going to spend more time in AAA this season then some think. 

And that's not a bad thing if there's not a need. In the perfect world, Holliday gets the Gunnar treatment and is brought up at the end of August so he's available for a playoff roster if he shows he ready and there's a need. 

Joey Ortiz is a ahead of him as a plater both offensively and defensively right now. Jordan Westburg is a stronger, more mature hitter right now. Obviously Gunnar is better them all, but you also have to add in Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo into the mix unless moves are made.

That's a lot of depth in the infield. 

Now, could Holliday show up bigger and stronger, have a great start to AAA and force his way to the big leagues before then, sure, that could happen. But I think Blood is on point. He needs to get physically stronger, hit lefties better, and also not hit as many grounders. 

We the amount of options the Orioles have right now barring any trades, he's heading to AAA to start the year.

[banks703]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Actually, I think Blood is giving his thoughts very clearly that Holliday is not ready for the big leagues yet. I would agree with him. When you add in that right now the orioles have multiple more mature players ready to play his positions, and I think he's going to spend more time in AAA this season then some think. 

And that's not a bad thing if there's not a need. In the perfect world, Holliday gets the Gunnar treatment and is brought up at the end of August so he's available for a playoff roster if he shows he ready and there's a need. 

Joey Ortiz is a ahead of him as a plater both offensively and defensively right now. Jordan Westburg is a stronger, more mature hitter right now. Obviously Gunnar is better them all, but you also have to add in Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo into the mix unless moves are made.

That's a lot of depth in the infield. 

Now, could Holliday show up bigger and stronger, have a great start to AAA and force his way to the big leagues before then, sure, that could happen. But I think Blood is on point. He needs to get physically stronger, hit lefties better, and also not hit as many grounders. 

We the amount of options the Orioles have right now barring any trades, he's heading to AAA to start the year.

This is essentially the point that I’ve argued all year. The most important part of his development this off-season is that he needs to physically mature quite a bit, which I think he will based on how his dad grew physically from 19.5 to 20.5 years old.

I think they also need to see a drastic improvement from him defensively to leapfrog the older (albeit lower floor/ceiling) guys that are “ahead” right now. 

He’s going to hit from day 1 but unless all of Gunnar, Joey and Jorge fall off a cliff defensively, Holliday isn’t going to see time at SS at the ML level this upcoming season. I suspect that he will be given an opportunity in ST to earn a spot but it won’t be at SS. As I’ve stated over and over I don’t think he has the arm, the footwork, the range or timing that you’d want in a ML SS. I’m convinced he ends up at 2B but I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets moved to the OF at some point. 
 

All of this to say that I agree with MB and your take on the kid. If they didn’t have both Jorge and Ramon on the 26 man, I think they conceivably could stash him at DH (and my previous thought was that Jorge would be moved to open an infield roster spot) but they’re going to want him to get defensive innings. Unless they’re absolutely pathetic offensively and are desperate for his bat or they move another infielder on the 26-man, I think it’s more likely that he ends up starting 24 in Norfolk.  

[orioles22]

On 12/17/2023 at 7:28 PM, Can_of_corn said:

He just has to show he's a better choice than the other options.

I'd rather play inferior players than rush someone with as much potential as Holliday. Perhaps he is ready though. I will trust Elias and company to decide.

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Actually, I think Blood is giving his thoughts very clearly that Holliday is not ready for the big leagues yet. I would agree with him. When you add in that right now the orioles have multiple more mature players ready to play his positions, and I think he's going to spend more time in AAA this season then some think. 

And that's not a bad thing if there's not a need. In the perfect world, Holliday gets the Gunnar treatment and is brought up at the end of August so he's available for a playoff roster if he shows he ready and there's a need. 

Joey Ortiz is a ahead of him as a plater both offensively and defensively right now. Jordan Westburg is a stronger, more mature hitter right now. Obviously Gunnar is better them all, but you also have to add in Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo into the mix unless moves are made.

That's a lot of depth in the infield. 

Now, could Holliday show up bigger and stronger, have a great start to AAA and force his way to the big leagues before then, sure, that could happen. But I think Blood is on point. He needs to get physically stronger, hit lefties better, and also not hit as many grounders. 

We the amount of options the Orioles have right now barring any trades, he's heading to AAA to start the year.

 

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

This is essentially the point that I’ve argued all year. The most important part of his development this off-season is that he needs to physically mature quite a bit, which I think he will based on how his dad grew physically from 19.5 to 20.5 years old.

I think they also need to see a drastic improvement from him defensively to leapfrog the older (albeit lower floor/ceiling) guys that are “ahead” right now. 

He’s going to hit from day 1 but unless all of Gunnar, Joey and Jorge fall off a cliff defensively, Holliday isn’t going to see time at SS at the ML level this upcoming season. I suspect that he will be given an opportunity in ST to earn a spot but it won’t be at SS. As I’ve stated over and over I don’t think he has the arm, the footwork, the range or timing that you’d want in a ML SS. I’m convinced he ends up at 2B but I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets moved to the OF at some point. 
 

All of this to say that I agree with MB and your take on the kid. If they didn’t have both Jorge and Ramon on the 26 man, I think they conceivably could stash him at DH (and my previous thought was that Jorge would be moved to open an infield roster spot) but they’re going to want him to get defensive innings. Unless they’re absolutely pathetic offensively and are desperate for his bat or they move another infielder on the 26-man, I think it’s more likely that he ends up starting 24 in Norfolk.  

I agree with all of this. Good posts by both of you guys. I was going to add that I think Jackson has to improve his defense before he would leapfrog a guy like Joey Ortiz or Jordan Westburg, but I think @banks703 pretty much covered that.

[banks703]

10 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

I agree with all of this. Good posts by both of you guys. I was going to add that I think Jackson has to improve his defense before he would leapfrog a guy like Joey Ortiz or Jordan Westburg, but I think @banks703 pretty much covered that.

I think some folks get tunnel-vision on the prospect ranking itself and can somewhat disregard the player himself and the state of the franchise. Will JH mature and get better? Of course. He's the top prospect in baseball for a reason and he got better defensively throughout his first year of pro ball. I just don't think that his defensive tools project a premier defender at SS, which is something the organization has very clearly demonstrated a priority. I do not see a scenario where if all of the current guys on the ML are still on the roster at the time of JH's promotion (which very well could be OD 24 for all I know), that he pushes Gunnar, Joey and Jorge off of SS. The path for him to be promoted and play in Baltimore in 24 is at 2B, where even JW is currently a better defender.

I genuinely see his hit tool as being currently better than 3/4 of the position players on the ML roster. A top of the order of JH, Adley and Gunnar is absolutely disgusting to think about for the next 5+ years... but I think we are more likely to have to wait a little bit longer to see it.