On the field, would you say it's our top priority to upgrade the starting staff?

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

How many teams have a viable second option for CF?

Not sure, but 15 teams out-performed our OF.  16 out-performed our SP, so either are reasonable answers. 
 

Edit: we finished #16 in WAA for SP so 15 teams were better and #15 in OF so 14 teams were better. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by emmett16

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Do you really need "evidence" to tell you that if your bullpen pitches less innings you'll be able to distribute those innings more easily to your best relieves and thus get better results?

But, yes, I am actually referring to acquiring a starter that would push the guys in the 5th starter mix now into the bullpen and strengthening it.  There's going to be a fifth starter.  As it stands now it will be Wells, Irvin, or Hall, in order of most likely imo.  Bringing in someone to push them all to the pen is going to make the pen better.

Yea I do.  Thats sounds like one of those things that sounds good but is there actual evidence that it’s the case?

And btw, I’m not saying it’s not the case, just something I was wondering if studies had ever been done to actually prove that.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, emmett16 said:

Not sure, but 15 teams out-performed our OF.  16 out-performed our SP, so either are reasonable answers. 

Well yea because people on this site really overrate the vets on the roster.

That said, we have legit internal options to help the OF. We don’t have it for the rotation.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 Even ones you end up being right on aren’t grounded in reality. 

So you admit that my predictions sometimes come true which makes them realty.   

Your three moves in this thread have no chance of happening because that is not how Elias works.

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Not sure, but 15 teams out-performed our OF.  16 out-performed our SP, so either are reasonable answers. 

By what measures?

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you admit that my predictions sometimes come true which makes them realty.   

Your three moves in this thread have no chance of happening because that is not how Elias works.

 

When you throw a bunch of stuff on the wall, something is bound to stick. It doesn’t make you right, it makes you lucky.

And I never said Elias would make those moves. I said it’s what I would like to see. 

[sportsfan8703]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well yea because people on this site really overrate the vets on the roster.

That said, we have legit internal options to help the OF. We don’t have it for the rotation.

Is Ortiz a vet?  He’s one of our older players, and overrated. 

[NJOriolesFan]

Trade Santander for Bieber

Sign Blake Snell 7 years, $210 million-I know it will not happen

Trade Ortiz, Kremer and Cowser for Devin Williams.

Snell, Bieber, Rodriguez, Bradish, Means

Williams, Kimbrel, Cano, Coloumbe, Hall, Wells, Tate

Rutschman, Mountcastle, O’Hearn, westburg, Henderson, Holliday, Urias, Matteo, McCann, Hays, Mullins, Kjerstad, Mayo, McKenna

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

By what measures?

In a previous post (page 4) I posted Wins Above Average by position.  We finished #16 for SP & #15 for combined OF.  I know it’s not a perfect stat but is an efficient way to compare us vs. the other teams in the league. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well yea because people on this site really overrate the vets on the roster.

That said, we have legit internal options to help the OF. We don’t have it for the rotation.

I agree with injuries in mind there is a bit more depth at OF.   I think, just speaking about the incumbents, the SP are likely to perform better next year as opposed to the OF.  I like that we have 6 legit guys to fight for the rotation before we even talk about Hall and the guys in AAA.  I do think we should get one more pitcher and my previous posts with WAR by position illustrates that the SP is the current weak link.  
 

This is one of the main reasons I’ve been in favor of trading Santander, Hays, or both.    

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

2023 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average

SP = #16 @ 1.6

RP = #10 @ .6 

C = #7 @ 1.3

1B = #9 @ .4

2B = #14 @ .4 

3B = #5 @ 2.2

SS = #10 @ 1.7

LF = #2 @ .2

CF = #12 @ 1.0

RF = #15 @ -.2 

OF = #15 @ 1.0 

DH = #5 @ 1.1 

My gut instinct was OF.  Specifically CF as I think trusting Mullins to stay healthy is risky and  we don’t have much depth.  We lack a bonafied slugger in the lineup.  I do think our guys will take a step forward in the OF this year.  I voted the pitching staff for the poll, but don’t think we need a TOR type, raising the floor + improvements from our guys will go a long way.  I think picking up an impact pitcher will be easier than a true slugger or CF replacement.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought it would be interesting to see how we stack up against the top team and vs. the league average.  
 

SP = MIA 7.6 / Avg. 1.0 / O’s 1.6

RP = NYY 4.6 / Avg. -.9 / O’s .6

C = ARI 2.0 / Avg. -.3 / O’s 1.3 

1B = ATL 5.2 / Avg. -.3 / O’s .4 

2B = TEX 5.1 / Avg. .5 / O’s .4

3B = ATL 3.7 / Avg. .1 / O’s 2.2

SS = TEX 4.9 / Avg. .5 / O’s 1.7

LF = SDP 2.9 / Avg. -.2 / O’s .2 

CF = SEA 3.2 / Avg. .7 / O’s 1.0

RF = ATL 5.9 / Avg. 0 / O’s -.2

OF = ATl 6.5 / Avg. .5 / O’s 1.0

DH = LAA 3.6 / Avg. -.3 / O’s 1.1 

Looking at this a couple things stick out.  1. Atlanta is ridiculous 2. RF is pretty weak compared to avg. & top and the only spot we have a negative WAR.  Makes me wonder if Santander is attractive in a trade and also makes me think we need to be upgrading RF production.  

Maybe the move is to dump (trade for low level lottery ticket) O’Hearn, replace him with Santa, & give Kjerstad the majority of the RF reps.  

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by emmett16

[TAMC]

I voted no, but I have to say it depends on the team's overall strategy.  There is little doubt in my mind that next year's team would be much better if a real upgrade to the starting pitching were made.  Such an addition would add to the team strength not only with the wins that pitcher might add but also in the usage patterns for the bullpen and the effect on the schedule of every minor league Oriole pitcher as a level of urgency is possibly removed from their development cycle.  It also would increase the probability of Orioles success in playoff games for the next year or two. Probably other benefits also that I can't think of right now. 

However, if we consider the team success over the next 5 years or so, it is less clear to me that getting a better starting pitcher for the next year or two would be more important than sustaining a steady prospect acquisition and development pipeline in terms of sustained success.  I suspect that only the Orioles management really has the information to judge the impact of a particular trade on the long term sustainability of the major league team.  I guess that what I am saying is that I want them to focus on ensuring sustained excellence over the longer term rather than focusing on a potential WS victory in the next year or two.  To me, maintaining that focus is the top priority this offseason and for any offseason to come.

Having said that, I understand that for some winning a WS is the pinnacle of success and, given the uncertainties of the game, going all out to take advantage of an opportunity is worth any subsequent ills (although I suspect that trades we  would consider this year would not cause a major rebuild or anything more than a team that had a few additional weaknesses for a few seasons).  I guess where I'm coming from is that I would rather see a very competitive team over a multi year time frame that one WS victory.