Kiley McDaniel Top 100

[Say O!]

Kiley posted his AL org detailed rankings today — link to ESPN Insider (paywall).

32 players ranked with 40FV or better, some notables

• Povich (#7 Os player // # 119 overall).  Writeup says just average progress vs breakthrough step up that Kiley was expecting (to Frobbys point)
• Beavers (#8 // #137) with above average tools across the board including passable CF defense
• higher than most on Fabian (#9 // #150) noting questions about hitting may result in only 4th OF type
• Also higher than most on Arias (#10) and Etzel (#11)
• lower than most on McDermott (#19)
• also liked from predraft Cunningham (#22) noting physical size and speed/power. 

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Kiley posted his AL org detailed rankings today — link to ESPN Insider (paywall).

32 players ranked with 40FV or better, some notables

• Povich (#7 Os player // # 119 overall).  Writeup says just average progress vs breakthrough step up that Kiley was expecting (to Frobbys point)
• Beavers (#8 // #137) with above average tools across the board including passable CF defense
• higher than most on Fabian (#9 // #150) noting questions about hitting may result in only 4th OF type
• Also higher than most on Arias (#10) and Etzel (#11)
• lower than most on McDermott (#19)
• also liked from predraft Cunningham (#22) noting physical size and speed/power. 

Wow, making a 10th round pick who signed for slot the #11 overall prospect in a deep system is a bold take for sure.  

 

[mlrhode]

25 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Kiley posted his AL org detailed rankings today — link to ESPN Insider (paywall).

32 players ranked with 40FV or better, some notables

• Povich (#7 Os player // # 119 overall).  Writeup says just average progress vs breakthrough step up that Kiley was expecting (to Frobbys point)
• Beavers (#8 // #137) with above average tools across the board including passable CF defense
• higher than most on Fabian (#9 // #150) noting questions about hitting may result in only 4th OF type
• Also higher than most on Arias (#10) and Etzel (#11)
• lower than most on McDermott (#19)
• also liked from predraft Cunningham (#22) noting physical size and speed/power. 

1st overall
2nd in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$371 million total value

1. Jackson Holliday, SS, 65 FV (1st on the Top 100)
2. Coby Mayo, 3B, 55 FV (19)
3. Samuel Basallo, C, 55 FV (27)
4. Heston Kjerstad, RF, 50 FV (48)
5. Colton Cowser, CF, 50 FV (50)
6. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, 50 FV (94)
7. Cade Povich, LHP, 50 FV (119)
8. Dylan Beavers, RF, 45+ FV (137)
9. Jud Fabian, CF, 45+ FV (150)
10. Leandro Arias, SS, 45 FV
11. Matthew Etzel, CF, 45 FV
12. Seth Johnson, RHP, 45 FV
13. Connor Norby, 2B, 45 FV
14. Braylin Tavera, CF, 40+ FV
15. Max Wagner, 3B, 40+ FV
16. Luis De Leon, LHP, 40+ FV
17. Chayce McDermott, RHP, 40+ FV
18. Jackson Baumeister, RHP, 40 FV
19. Josh Liranzo, 3B, 40 FV
20. Kiefer Lord, RHP, 40 FV
21. Trace Bright, RHP, 40 FV
22. Jake Cunningham, CF, 40 FV
23. Luis Almeyda, SS, 40 FV
24. Emilio Sanchez, SS, 40 FV
25. Mac Horvath, 2B, 40 FV
26. John Rhodes, RF, 40 FV
27. Frederick Bencosme, SS, 40 FV
28. Tavian Josenberger, CF, 40 FV
29. Justin Armbruester, RHP, 40 FV
30. Carlos Tavera, RHP, 40 FV
31. Billy Cook, RF, 40 FV
32. Keegan Gillies, RHP, 40 FV

[CaptainRedbeard]

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wow, making a 10th round pick who signed for slot the #11 overall prospect in a deep system is a bold take for sure.  

 

Definitely, he said he had Etzel #230 in his draft rankings so he liked him more than his draft position, but still a 7th rounder. It’s putting a lot of weight on his stellar month long debut, and he mentioned that the underlying metrics supported the numbers. Etzel is looking like a steal in the 10th round for sure but this is very aggressive in buying all the way into his limited first taste of pro action. 

[Frobby]

Anthony Villa also talked up Etzel.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Anthony Villa also talked up Etzel.  

His stats certainly rivaled Bradfields.  You might even say he's a poor man's Bradfield with more present pop.   Going to be fun to follow Etzel , Horvarh, and  Bradfield at Aberdeen. 

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Wow, making a 10th round pick who signed for slot the #11 overall prospect in a deep system is a bold take for sure.  

 

Especially one that spent a good portion of the year hitting with the right side open with Bradfield on base at a 48% clip.

[SemperFi]

On 2/3/2024 at 5:54 AM, Frobby said:

Kiley is the one guy who had Povich in his top 100 last year, at a fairly lofty 54.  So, I guess Povich has tumbled a long way in Kiley’s estimation.  

I have no problem with Basallo at 27.   It’s lower than most other lists I’ve seen, but nothing crazy.  
 

"Povich made last year's Top 100 and largely held serve on the field but moved down a bit because I thought he'd have a breakthrough and he merely made just some progress. His walk rate isn't very indicative of his command, more of his style of pitching as some advanced metrics of rival teams give him average big league command right now. He has a bevy of slightly to clearly above-average pitches but not many true plus qualities -- look for a 2024 debut from him."

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, mlrhode said:

1st overall
2nd in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$371 million total value

1. Jackson Holliday, SS, 65 FV (1st on the Top 100)
2. Coby Mayo, 3B, 55 FV (19)
3. Samuel Basallo, C, 55 FV (27)
4. Heston Kjerstad, RF, 50 FV (48)
5. Colton Cowser, CF, 50 FV (50)
6. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, 50 FV (94)
7. Cade Povich, LHP, 50 FV (119)
8. Dylan Beavers, RF, 45+ FV (137)
9. Jud Fabian, CF, 45+ FV (150)
10. Leandro Arias, SS, 45 FV
11. Matthew Etzel, CF, 45 FV
12. Seth Johnson, RHP, 45 FV
13. Connor Norby, 2B, 45 FV
14. Braylin Tavera, CF, 40+ FV
15. Max Wagner, 3B, 40+ FV
16. Luis De Leon, LHP, 40+ FV
17. Chayce McDermott, RHP, 40+ FV
18. Jackson Baumeister, RHP, 40 FV
19. Josh Liranzo, 3B, 40 FV
20. Kiefer Lord, RHP, 40 FV
21. Trace Bright, RHP, 40 FV
22. Jake Cunningham, CF, 40 FV
23. Luis Almeyda, SS, 40 FV
24. Emilio Sanchez, SS, 40 FV
25. Mac Horvath, 2B, 40 FV
26. John Rhodes, RF, 40 FV
27. Frederick Bencosme, SS, 40 FV
28. Tavian Josenberger, CF, 40 FV
29. Justin Armbruester, RHP, 40 FV
30. Carlos Tavera, RHP, 40 FV
31. Billy Cook, RF, 40 FV
32. Keegan Gillies, RHP, 40 FV

Lots of guys a lot lower than most would.

McDermott and Horvath really stand out.

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

"Povich made last year's Top 100 and largely held serve on the field but moved down a bit because I thought he'd have a breakthrough and he merely made just some progress. His walk rate isn't very indicative of his command, more of his style of pitching as some advanced metrics of rival teams give him average big league command right now. He has a bevy of slightly to clearly above-average pitches but not many true plus qualities -- look for a 2024 debut from him."

That is interesting to consider.  

The Povich-McDermott gap is much wider here than other lists that go as deep.  Usually, they're within a few spots of each other (with Johnson around there too) as almost a toss-up.  McDaniel seems to have Povich on the mid-shelf and McDermott on the rail.

[Just Regular]

Kiley total dollar value guesses for the farms:

NL East - ATL 87, MIA 82, NYM 235, PHI 158, WSN 203

NL Cent - CHC 328, CIN 237, MIL 276, PIT 222, STL 193

NL West - ARZ 168, COL 161, LAD 247, SDP 284, SFG 207

AL East - BAL 371, BOS 223, NYY 252, TBR 249, TOR 126

AL Cent - CHW 172, CLE 187, DET 318, KCR 89, MIN 241

AL West - HOU 88, LAA 66, OAK 112, SEA 200, TEX 228

TOR/HOU notable laggards among current strong AL squads.

If you guess a Club extracts its surplus value from everyone today on their Farm over ~8 years, this guess imagines the Orioles might enjoy ~$15M/year extra field value for cheap vs. the Rays and Yankees the rest of the decade.    

[baltfan]

7 hours ago, SemperFi said:

"Povich made last year's Top 100 and largely held serve on the field but moved down a bit because I thought he'd have a breakthrough and he merely made just some progress. His walk rate isn't very indicative of his command, more of his style of pitching as some advanced metrics of rival teams give him average big league command right now. He has a bevy of slightly to clearly above-average pitches but not many true plus qualities -- look for a 2024 debut from him."

Our Blake Snell

[Roll Tide]

On 1/31/2024 at 4:10 PM, Low Country Bird said:

He's 27th in all of baseball.  That doesn't sound "that low" to me.

No sense arguing with him his  knowledge on baseball and football is divine

Edited February 10 by Roll Tide

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Definitely, he said he had Etzel #230 in his draft rankings so he liked him more than his draft position, but still a 7th rounder. It’s putting a lot of weight on his stellar month long debut, and he mentioned that the underlying metrics supported the numbers. Etzel is looking like a steal in the 10th round for sure but this is very aggressive in buying all the way into his limited first taste of pro action. 

I mean, I get it, and he does look like a very good little player that might have been slept on a bit, but still, that's too high in the Orioles system. I thought I was being a bit bold putting him in the top 30. 

Of course I don't have access to the "underlying metrics" so perhaps I would have liked him more, but I try to remember that 30 professional scouting staffs felt he was a 10th rounder at best. I guess we can all hope he's a steal and Kiley is right.

[CaptainRedbeard]

8 hours ago, baltfan said:

Our Blake Snell

That description does sound exactly like Blake Snell. Except Povich is not averaging 96 mph with his fastball, and has a cutter in the mix and Snell is just the 4 pitches. Or maybe somebody like Daisuke Matsuzaka. The “nibbler” approach can be pretty frustrating to watch so I hope Povich adjusts towards more consistent strike throwing.

Wish Kiley had given some commentary on McDermott - he’s definitely on an island in terms of being that down on McDermott and that high on Povich.