Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

This is the only real downside to the big trade is that Mateo and Urias are both going to be on the roster and will both get significant playing time as I expect Holiday to start in AAA.  Don't misunderstand, the trade was great and was the right move.   But having Mateo in the lineup that much is a real downer for me.   If we'd kept Ortiz I was hoping for to see him take most of the Mateo/Urias playing time as we moved folks around the IF.  Granted it was a temporary move as once Holiday is ready Ortiz is expendable.  But since he's gone we are stuck with a subpar lineup in the meantime. 

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

This is the only real downside to the big trade is that Mateo and Urias are both going to be on the roster and will both get significant playing time as I expect Holiday to start in AAA.  Don't misunderstand, the trade was great and was the right move.   But having Mateo in the lineup that much is a real downer for me.   If we'd kept Ortiz I was hoping for to see him take most of the Mateo/Urias playing time as we moved folks around the IF.  Granted it was a temporary move as once Holiday is ready Ortiz is expendable.  But since he's gone we are stuck with a subpar lineup in the meantime. 

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

I think for most of them "not being ready" is a what they say when they mean they want 6+ seasons of team control and not 6.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

He just turned 20 and only has 18 AAA games played. Then you have to factor in the arbitration dates. That’s just a reality. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, spleen1015 said:

Neither Urias nor Mateo have any options, so I think they start the year on the roster. Mateo would probably make it through waivers. I don't think Urias would. This is doesn't matter to me though.

With them making the 26 man coming out of ST, Mayo and Holliday aren't making it. O'Hearn makes it as a DH/1B option.

They'll start in Norfolk. When Urias gets hurt we'll see one of them.

What if he doesn't get hurt? Or what if he doesn't get hurt until July/August/September? 

We have Burnes for this one season right now, how does it make any sense to hold Holliday down in the minor leagues (for no legitimate reason) just so we can keep a borderline averagish player like Urias? That jives with 2022 logic but in 24 when you are trying to legit compete for a World Series that makes no sense.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

Service time and defense.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He just turned 20 and only has 18 AAA games played. Then you have to factor in the arbitration dates. That’s just a reality. 

 

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Service time and defense.

Told you,  for a lot of them it isn't a matter of readiness it's a matter of service time manipulation.

They don't like just calling it that.

Lots of players, HoF caliber players, were in the majors as teenagers.

Lots of players, HoF caliber players, skipped AAA.

Was Machado a better prospect than Jackson?

Made his debut at 19, skipped AAA and had never played the position they put him at.

He turned out OK.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think for most of them "not being ready" is a what they say when they mean they want 6+ seasons of team control and not 6.

Hopefully with new ownership and their much deeper pockets, we can extend him beyond the 6/7 season that we can have him. IMO if you want to go from where we are/have been to being a top flight org, you don’t let special talent walk out of the door. You do what it takes to keep your superstars.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

Told you,  for a lot of them it isn't a matter of readiness it's a matter of service time manipulation.

They don't like just calling it that.

Lots of players, HoF caliber players, were in the majors as teenagers.

Lots of players, HoF caliber players, skipped AAA.

Was Machado a better prospect than Jackson?

Made his debut at 19, skipped AAA and had never played the position they put him at.

He turned out OK.

I don’t have doubt that he could be here now but yea, I’m taking another year away if I can.  Now, I would try to get him signed to a 9-10 year deal and just have him up immediately but without that, you absolutely get the extra year, especially with a boras client.

 

[forphase1]

21 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I heard this rationale in the board several times regarding Holliday "not being ready". Is there something I am missing? Has a hole/weakness been identify that I haven't seen or become aware of? 

I have heard several posters compare the treatment of Henderson in '22 vs the handling of Holliday in '24. However, I think there are a few fundamental differences to consider. 1) We did not have legit World Series aspirations in '22. It can be argued that we really weren't trying to win/compete with the midseason selloff. 2) Henderson despite how wonderful of a talent/prospect that he was, had a few concerns/weaknesses - hitting off speed pitches & hitting LHP. I haven't seen that at all with Holliday. 3) Holliday unlike even Henderson & Rutschman jumped FOUR LEVELS IN ONE SEASON. How many prospects in the last 30 years have done that not just with the O's (never) but in the entire sport? He is not like everybody else.

What would be the legit reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for the likes of Mateo/Urias? Didn't we waste a year of Westburg's development last season with the likes of Frazier/Urias?

A few things.  First, we don't KNOW that he is ready.  He's got an extremely small sample size against AAA competition.  I DO think he's ready, but it's not my evaluation that is important.  Second, perhaps I should have worded it more like 'until the team is ready to call him up'.  As we've discussed in previous posts, I don't think he's on the OD roster, and I fully expect to see his time be limited initially to gain more time, miss super 2 status and, maybe, to keep his rookie eligibility alive for 2025.  We will see of course, but all of those factors are in play in my opinion, at least until shown otherwise by Elias.  

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He just turned 20 and only has 18 AAA games played. Then you have to factor in the arbitration dates. That’s just a reality. 

Have you considered the possibility that he doesn’t need AAA? He has hit everywhere he has been, was a 1:1, and has no other identifiable weaknesses in his game. IMO you can’t apply the same standards to others as you do to him because he is a different level of talent. When was the last time a player jumped 4 levels in one season? The only I can think of is ARod.

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Have you considered the possibility that he doesn’t need AAA? He has hit everywhere he has been, was a 1:1, and has no other identifiable weaknesses in his game. IMO you can’t apply the same standards to others as you do to him because he is a different level of talent. When was the last time a player jumped 4 levels in one season? The only I can think of is ARod.

Again, I'd think that most of us that believe we won't see him this year think so less because we doubt his talent and abilities and more about questioning control, money and future ROY chances.  At the same time, his limited time in AAA certainly gives Elias some cover about needing more time, blah blah blah.  Maybe it's legitimate concerns about wanting him to face more veteran/capable pitching and working on defense...maybe it's management speak to justify manipulating service time.  Who knows?  But either way I think that those expect him to be on the OD roster are setting themselves up for disappointment.  

Edited February 4 by forphase1

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

A few things.  First, we don't KNOW that he is ready. 

You NEVER KNOW.

You just don't.

My argument is simple, can they learn what they need to learn in the majors?

Do they improve the team?

 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

A few things.  First, we don't KNOW that he is ready.  He's got an extremely small sample size against AAA competition.  I DO think he's ready, but it's not my evaluation that is important.  Second, perhaps I should have worded it more like 'until the team is ready to call him up'.  As we've discussed in previous posts, I don't think he's on the OD roster, and I fully expect to see his time be limited initially to gain more time, miss super 2 status and, maybe, to keep his rookie eligibility alive for 2025.  We will see of course, but all of those factors are in play in my opinion, at least until shown otherwise by Elias.  

Spring Training should show if he’s ready, which I have no doubt that he is. People keep talking about him being ready, but what does he really need to do to prove that? Is there a hole in his swing/approach that someone sees? The only thing I can think of is his home run numbers, but he was 19 and I expect him to add more strength. However, if he never adds that plus power tool but he retains his plus plus hit tool, that is still VERY special. Especially from a middle infielder. How man players in the sport have a plus plus hit tool? 

Retaining the extra year matters to a great degree IF you are never planing on extending him/signing him long term. In addition, you get the pick if he wins rookie of the year or finishes top 2. 

Lastly, this is the year with Burnes and Adley’s last pre-arb year. I don’t think we can continue to afford to punt on maximizing our chances any longer.

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You NEVER KNOW.

You just don't.

My argument is simple, can they learn what they need to learn in the majors?

Do they improve the team?

 

Of course you never know.  Point is some are saying without question he IS ready.  They don't know that for sure, of course.  I feel that he IS ready myself.  But at the same time I recognize that with the SSS against AAA pitching, the argument can be easily made by Elias to keep him down to get more 'seasoning' be it a few weeks, a couple months, or 2/3rd of the year, depending.  I'd have him starting OD.  But I'd also have had Westburg/Ortiz playing last year over Frazier, and many other such moves.  I know we are in a different stage of our franchise history, i.e. playing to win now, but at the same time until I see them being that aggressive with Holiday being promoted to the MLB team, I expect to see a Gunnar like treatment.