TT: Taking a look at the bullpen now that Hall is gone

[NJOriolesFan]

I’m almost certain that Ortiz and Hall were not the only guys discussed with the Brewers.  If we can get Devin Williams without including Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Westburg, and one of Cowser/Kjerstad, then I’d be up for it.

I would then get Montgomery or Snell which cushions the blow if we can’t get Burnes back for 25 and beyond.

Kremer, Mountcastle, Hays expendable for right player(s).

Norby, Kremer and Hays for Williams would be nice

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Great analysis. There’s plenty of reasons to think the projections are low (particularly for Cano and Coulombe, who were many orders of magnitude better last season than what they’re projected for now, and Wells whose projections still incorporate SP work), but the projections still have the Orioles’ pen as one of the worst in baseball. Trading significant assets for a reliever would be very outside Elias’ approach to date, but the need there is glaring now. I have no idea how he’s going to approach it, but I suspect he’s not going to go the trade route until the deadline, when there are always a ton of RP available, unless he finds a relatively cheap trade he likes before then. 

I think picking up Brasier or another free agent is possible, but it does put the roster construction in a tough spot. If everyone is healthy at the end of Spring Training, to keep everyone out of options they would need to send both Wells and Tate down, and that would leave nobody optionable for the first time you need a fresh arm. 

So, is Elias willing to sign or trade for a RP if it means Baumann or Webb will potentially need to be DFAd (or you otherwise need to option maybe 3 better RPs in Wells, Tate and Baker to keep them)? I would because I think injuries probably sort things out anyway and I’m not too keen on Baumann, but hard to know how Elias feels about it. 

Good post.  Good chance we start losing more guys to waiver claims this year.  That’s what happens when you have depth and talent.

Baumann is frustrating to me.  Tons of skills that check a lot of boxes.  But just hasn’t quite put it all together.  I think Elias trusts the process and Baumann gets the chance to “regress” toward the models.

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

@Tony-OH Take a look at Baumann’s Savant page.  The knuckle curve easily looks like his best pitch (.192 avg) but he only threw it 25% of the time.  I’m dreaming but maybe increased usage of that pitch and some improvement in command and we might have something.

Yep, I've been a fan of him throwing that more than his slider for awhile now and he finally started to do it last year. The slider can be good but it's inconsistent. 

I haven't given up on Baumann at all, just that he's a guy without any options so he needs to figure it out this year. Can he take step forward? Potentially. But I still don't see the wipe out pitch that would make him an impact reliever.

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Rubenstein was enough for me to call it an A+ season.  But on the field, I agree.  

I think we all agree if that were the criteria. Of course I'm talking about Elias' offseason and improving the team. Burnes and Kimbrel gives him A- for me so far.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we all agree if that were the criteria. Of course I'm talking about Elias' offseason and improving the team. Burnes and Kimbrel gives him A- for me so far.

Where would you have ranked Hall in our system if he was still considered  a prospect?  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles best bullpen was in 2014 after they acquired Andrew Miller. The Britton, Miller, O'Day trio made the games shorter.

Only tactical detail in my mind is if the 10th Anniversary 2024 Andrew Miller type acquisition occurs on precisely the same day of the calendar.

Information compiling whether Alexis Diaz, David Bednar or Devin Williams' arms explode by the All-Star break, and how their teams do this year.     Tanner Scott may get settled before Opening Day.

I hope Craig Kimbrel gets another dogpile and pitches well unlike in October 2018 when Steve Pearce took him along for the ride, but I don't expect Sigbot to be precious about October role if September stuff is soft.     Buck would have cared about 37 saves.

You've got me pumped to see if Luis De Leon can challenge for an early 40-man spot if he's one of the 10 best pitchers at Elias' disposal this fall!

[Osornot]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You have to admit, the O’s have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their hats the last two years in the bullpen, so we’ll see what unexpected developments emerge in 2024.

 

And, this has made me a little complacent assuming the last two years can be repeated by sticking with the same process.  Luckily, they don't feel that way or... maybe there is a secret sauce (?)

[Just Regular]

Some of Michael Baumann's 2023 pitches had the movement attributes of the "death ball" which seems like it may be 2024's trendy new toy.

Growing up, a line about pitching I enjoyed was that all breaking balls are the same, even curves and sliders.     Its just playing with the physics like Candy Cummings started.     A core Elias competency seems to be a roster of coaches to explain stuff like this to relievers.     Sigbot has those inputs that Steamer and Zips mostly just don't.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/87818/bullpen-session-deathball-what-is-it/

There are a few takeaways here. The deathball is described as different from a traditional curveball in that it is thrown with less emphasis on efficient topspin, though the emphasis on vertical movement remains. According to Tread Athletics’ Tyler Zombro, the pitch has at least negative four inches of vertical movement and between negative two and two inches of horizontal movement. Additionally, he names three pitchers specifically who throw this pitch—Alex Lange, Pete Fairbanks and Jordan Montgomery.

 

Pitchers throwing deathballs

Parameters: mph > 80, vertical movement < -3, horizontal movement between -2.5 and 2.5, deviation > 30 for rhp, deviation < -30 for lhp, n > 50

Name	Pitch Type (PitchInfo)	Handedness	Avg Velo	hMov	vMov	Active Spin	Spin Based Movement	Observed Movement	Deviation	Whiff Rate
Abbott, Cory	CU	R	84.67	1.76	-4.98	58	7:00	6:30	30	35.98
Alexander, Scott	SL	L	82.84	-2.28	-3.23	45	4:00	4:45	-45	39.62
Balazovic, Jordan	CU	R	81.48	1.50	-7.01	77	7:00	6:30	30	16.67
Barnes, Matt	CU	R	83.44	0.87	-5.65	72	7:00	6:15	45	28.05
Baumann, Mike	CU	R	87.29	0.89	-5.38	53	7:00	6:15	45	33.87
Duran, Jhoan	CU	R	87.59	2.04	-6.07	53	7:30	6:45	45	45.87
Fairbanks, Pete	SL	R	86.69	2.37	-5.10	43	7:45	6:45	60	31.38
Felipe, Angel	SL	R	83.20	1.83	-3.72	42	8:15	7:00	75	57.58
Freeland, Kyle	CU	L	80.62	-1.65	-3.81	43	4:30	5:30	-60	32.11
Gallen, Zac	CU	R	82.34	2.22	-7.28	64	7:15	6:30	45	40.7
Glasnow, Tyler

[Moose Milligan]

I’d really like another reliever this offseason. However Elias has been adept at the skill of finding hidden gems so I’m curious to see what he comes up with. 

[Camden Yards]

Does Burnes help the bullpen out too? He pitched at least six innings in 63 of his 93 starts the last three years. The entire staff (maybe Means is on a pitch count) should be stronger which should take some pressure off the pen. Burnes is a workhorse! Great to have a guy who is a Top 5 pitcher who will give you 30 starts and pitch relatively deep into games. How is our defense and catching compared to what he had in Milwaukee?

[Roll Tide]

@Tony-OH What do you think about Brasier on a 1 year deal? He’s was nearly unhittable in 40 innings after getting out of Boston.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I’d really like another reliever this offseason. However Elias has been adept at the skill of finding hidden gems so I’m curious to see what he comes up with. 

Yeah I think there’s a chance they bring in a more known guy, but most likely they’ll take a stab at finding this year’s Perez or Coulombe and it’ll be someone we’ve never heard of. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Does Burnes help the bullpen out too? He pitched at least six innings in 63 of his 93 starts the last three years. The entire staff (maybe Means is on a pitch count) should be stronger which should take some pressure off the pen. Burnes is a workhorse! Great to have a guy who is a Top 5 pitcher who will give you 30 starts and pitch relatively deep into games. How is our defense and catching compared to what he had in Milwaukee?

He's replacing Gibson who pitched 192 innings last season.

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

@Tony-OH What do you think about Brasier on a 1 year deal? He’s was nearly unhittable in 40 innings after getting out of Boston.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brasiry01.shtml

Hendriks is another if he’s recovered from his cancer. He was said to be cancer free in September 2023.

Edited February 3 by Roll Tide

[Camden Yards]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's replacing Gibson who pitched 192 innings last season.

Good point! They threw basically the same number of innings. I guess I will be hoping for some less stressful situations with Burnes than Gibson. We should have some decent leads when Burnes exits vs Gibson. That might take some pressure off the pen. If Bradish and GROD keep it going too, maybe we won’t play as many close games this year. Again that will provide less stress on the pen.