Elias Interview on Baltimore (local) radio station

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Rubenstein had to assemble a group to be able to afford 1.725 billion to buy the whole team.  Meanwhile, the average fan expects him to shell out more than that in extensions for Burnes, Adley, Gunnar, and Holliday. Plus some FAs. It gets wild real fast. 

I know that your statement was made tongue-in-check. We all know how the concept of investing works and that Rubenstein was not scraping together his life's savings in order to purchase the bulk share of the team.

I'm sure that you probably already know this as well, seeing how you seem to be into the dollar and cents side of the game in some way, but the combined net worth of the two lead investor's of the Orioles new ownership group (David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti) is worth more than most owners in the sport including the Yankees and Red Sox. And this does not include Bloomberg's 17 billion dollar net worth.

Now, this is not to say that they are going to outspend every one in the game. Who knows? However, what I am saying is that they have the type of net worth to swim in the deep in of any Free Agent pool and provide the organization with the financial support that it takes in order to build and sustain a dynasty (multiple World Series runs over at least a decade). 

IMO in order to do this, it is imperative that you retain special talent from your baseball operations AND on the field. There is no way to get around having to spend large amounts of money on extensions if you want to maintain greatness over an extended stretch of time.

I have no reason to believe that these very smart men, who have made billions, in Rubenstien's case is into his 70's, and recruited local people like Ripken & Schmoke to lend their name to this venture; are not interested in running the Orioles much differently than they have been run especially given that Rubenstein has been a long suffering fan of this team. 

One of the very first things that he said about this venture was to bring a World Series back to Baltimore. I'm confident that this type of leadership/course setting, combined with his vast resources and Elias/Sig's brilliance can get us there. AND build this fanbase to support that vision so that they are not bleeding money (running in the red consistently) to do it.

It's any fans right to have low to no expectations. I don't approach that when it comes to any form of entertainment so the Orioles are no different for me. I have expectations and I am excited. Otherwise, I wouldn't be here.

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, sevastras said:

You didn’t have to answer. 

HA HA ... Trust me, that wouldn't have been a wise move. 

[sportsfan8703]

The Witt extension probably ruined the chances of any American born player signing an early extension for a long time. 

How could Boras go to Gunnar, and Holliday, and take less. 

Blame the Royals. It’s not even the money, it’s that they took all the risk. All the risk. 

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nothing personal so don’t take it that way, but just because you’re worth $25 billion doesn’t mean you should spend $25 billion. 

Just think how ridiculous the headlines would be…

Rubenstein spends $1.725 billion to purchase the O’s and then spends $1.400 billion to sign Burnes, Holliday, Adley, and Gunnar, to extensions. 

So those players over 7-10 years cost just as much as the team?

Expecting extensions for everyone is nuts and will lead to disappointment. 

What did Cohen do immediately upon taking control of the Mets? What about Ray Davis with the Rangers? Seidler (who is now deceased) with the Padres?

I'm not saying that is what this new group WILL do. But there is a precedent there for some of these new 21st "gazillionaires" coming in and buying these teams and immediately putting their money to work.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Witt extension probably ruined the chances of any American born player signing an early extension for a long time. 

How could Boras go to Gunnar, and Holliday, and take less. 

Blame the Royals. It’s not even the money, it’s that they took all the risk. All the risk. 

I do not like the Witt deal and I do wonder how it impacts future deals. I don’t understand why more in teams not mirror the Seattle deal with Julio Rodriguez.  Lots of shared risk. 
 

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What did Cohen do immediately upon taking control of the Mets? What about Ray Davis with the Rangers? Seidler (who is now deceased) with the Padres?

I'm not saying that is what this new group WILL do. But there is a precedent there for some of these new 21st "gazillionaires" coming in and buying these teams and immediately putting their money to work.

I’ll take the under. 

[sportsfan8703]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What did Cohen do immediately upon taking control of the Mets? What about Ray Davis with the Rangers? Seidler (who is now deceased) with the Padres?

I'm not saying that is what this new group WILL do. But there is a precedent there for some of these new 21st "gazillionaires" coming in and buying these teams and immediately putting their money to work.

Those guys didn’t step into a team that was already the the 4th favorite to win the WS. 

As is, we’re going to be amongst the WS favorites the next 5 years. Why take so much risk and spend a nearly a billion extra in just those 5 years to have the same players?

I think pre-Witt we could’ve extended one. Probably Holliday. Definitely not all 4 of Burnes, Holliday, Gunnar, and Adley. 

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I do not like the Witt deal and I do wonder how it impacts future deals. I don’t understand why more in teams not mirror the Seattle deal with Julio Rodriguez.  Lots of shared risk. 
 

The players don't agree to those terms?

[foxfield]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

The players don't agree to those terms?

Rodriguez did. Witt did not. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

32 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nothing personal so don’t take it that way, but just because you’re worth $25 billion doesn’t mean you should spend $25 billion. 

Just think how ridiculous the headlines would be…

Rubenstein spends $1.725 billion to purchase the O’s and then spends $1.400 billion to sign Burnes, Holliday, Adley, and Gunnar, to extensions. 

So those players over 7-10 years cost just as much as the team?

Expecting extensions for everyone is nuts and will lead to disappointment. 

I don't anticipate they'll sign all four of those guys to extensions. My guess is anything between 1-3 extensions for Adley, Gunnar and Holliday happen, but I'll take a wait and see approach. Burnes at 30 years old will probably carry too high of a risk profile to out-bid the big players.

But comparing the cost of purchasing a team to the cost of payrolls isn't really applicable IMO; the cost will be spread over the years of the deals and offset by yearly revenue. Plus, I imagine the organization would gain additional value versus not extending those players by becoming as successful as we should expect that team would be over 10 years.

Even going into the numbers though, I'm assuming you projected four 10-year, 350m deals to reach the $1.4b number. I think that's pretty unrealistic with Witt just receiving about $26m/year over 11 years because of the current club control. For this exercise let's just give that to all three of Adley, Gunnar and Holliday over 10 years for simplicity and give Burnes 10/$300m. That'd be $1.08b spent over a decade, or $108m/year. Do I think they'll run that type of payroll ($108m on four players and +/-$80m on the rest of a team for $190m)? No, but if you take out the Burnes deal, I don't think $150m-$160m would be too unrealistic at all. Not saying it's likely, just looking at hypotheticals. Never mind the fact that in 10 years, $25m-$30m a year for these guys will almost certainly be a bargain.

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Those guys didn’t step into a team that was already the the 4th favorite to win the WS. 

As is, we’re going to be amongst the WS favorites the next 5 years. Why take so much risk and spend a nearly a billion extra in just those 5 years to have the same players?

I think pre-Witt we could’ve extended one. Probably Holliday. Definitely not all 4 of Burnes, Holliday, Gunnar, and Adley. 

To answer your question - Because that is what keeps the contention window open beyond 4- 6 years.

It sounds like you hate the Witt extension. But if we don't extend at least 2 of our superstars this window will be short. It's not that we can't have a good team. The Rays, Brewers, etc have shown that you can do that. But if you want multiple year results like the Astros, you HAVE to spend series money.

Other orgs have their own versions of Elias & Sig (very smart people and great systems). That will not be enough to sustain a dynasty (multiple World Series runs over at least a decade). You have to have an owner who supports by providing resources.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I think you might want to go back and check the math again on what this group can “afford”. The group buying the Orioles is worth about 25 BILLION. I’m not saying that it is realistic that the Orioles will extend all those guys, but there is no scenario where this ownership extends all those guys and feels the slightest of financial strain. It’s funny how fans tend to count the players money but never the owners.

Mike Bloomberg is worth 54B by himself.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Mike Bloomberg is worth 54B by himself.

Oh my apologies. The number that I read was 17.1 billion. Either way the pockets are very deep with this group.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What’s the O’s record for ST HR?  I thought JR House or someone went crazy in the dark dark days. 

I remember Jake Fox hit like 7 one spring.  

[Ripken]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I remember Jake Fox hit like 7 one spring.  

10 (in 2011)