Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[ThisIsBirdland]

One other element that may go into this is I think you have to expect any rookie to endure their growing pains. For the 2024 Os, I imagine they’ll want the growing pains out of the way as early as possible, especially with the (on paper) light schedule they have for the month of April. Seems like a good rookie acclimation opportunity. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

One other element that may go into this is I think you have to expect any rookie to endure their growing pains. For the 2024 Os, I imagine they’ll want the growing pains out of the way as early as possible, especially with the (on paper) light schedule they have for the month of April. Seems like a good rookie acclimation opportunity. 

I think this is a good point. 

Even for a rookie as talented as Jackson Holliday, it is reasonable to expect some adjustment/acclimating struggles. Almost all guys go through them in the modern game. The jump in competition for AAA to the Bigs is probably the largest of all adjacent levels.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think this is a good point. 

Even for a rookie as talented as Jackson Holliday, it is reasonable to expect some adjustment/acclimating struggles. Almost all guys go through them in the modern game. The jump in competition for AAA to the Bigs is probably the largest of all adjacent levels.

I don’t know if the adjustment is that much bigger.  But everything is under a microscope and there’s less tolerance of the adjustment period because winning is paramount.  

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know if the adjustment is that much bigger.  But everything is under a microscope and there’s less tolerance of the adjustment period because winning is paramount.  

Yes, but he also isn’t looked at as a guy that must succeed this year in order for the Orioles to see..contra Gunnar and Adley. 

[baltfan]

5 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

This poll in November asked the odds of Holliday making the OD roster, and the most common answer was "A very slim chance":

I take that to mean under 20%. What do you all think now?

I'm still putting it at under 50%, though trading for Burnes at least shows that this year is a priority and the team is willing to give up some long-term value for 2024 wins. That said, I don't see it as all-or-nothing, and Holliday is still going to have to show he's definitively better than Urias right now, if we're giving up the extra year. And I see the infielders coming in this week as a sign that we have options for backup 2B if Holliday doesn't blow away the competition.

So I don't see the job as Holliday's to lose, just a job he can win if he proves he's the best option beyond a doubt.

 

I was a guy who thought no chance, but now think there is a very good chance. It seems Elias is penciling him in at 2nd

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Yes, but he also isn’t looked at as a guy that must succeed this year in order for the Orioles to see..contra Gunnar and Adley. 

I was just making a general point, not commenting on whether Holliday will struggle or for how long.  But if the O’s put him on the team for Opening Day, I expect they will be patient with him so long as he doesn’t look terribly overmatched.  

[SpOkane]

19 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are there any angles we haven't thought of here in regards to Holliday being on the roster on Opening Day?

If Billy Eppler were not on the Ineligible List for 2024 and was hired as an advisor, he might suggest Holliday start on OD, (surprise! surprise!) have a phantom injury the next day, place him on the IL, let him rest a few days, then rehab at Norfolk for 20 days to get in 2B/SS work and 80+PAs and rejoin the club when the rehab is over.  After that suggestion, Eppler would find himself looking for an advisor on how to get another gig as an advisor.

[sportsfan8703]

If Holliday is on the OD roster he likely bests all of Gunnar’s 2023 totals except the 28 HR, 82 RBI and .489 SLG

Hits - 148

Runs - 100

Doubles - 29

Triples - 9

Steals - 10

Walks - 56

Avg -.255

OBP - .325 

OPS - .814

 

[sportsfan8703]

Scoring more runs also takes the pressure off the bullpen. The sooner that we get Holliday to the lead off spot the better for the whole team. 

[maybenxtyr]

I'm just curious if anyone knows how Holliday and Henderson compared at this age? I think Henderson would have been a higher prospect. I'm just trying to get some context on what I should expect for Holliday. It's a great situation for the team regardless.

[Just Regular]

Every month means something to a very young player like Holliday, and if Sigbot is confident the team will qualify, some of the choice is how much experience for him balances the Club's 2024 and 2030 championship odds, assuming 6 years of service remains the FA standard next CBA.

Its hard to picture because Gunnar's ceiling looks so high, but Sigbot process suggests it thinks Holliday is better.    Though maybe one day Elias or Sig will write a memoir about how Gunnar Henderson by their reckoning should have been the 2nd overall pick in the 2019 draft.

We're about to see them side by side daily - I think Gunnar has more power now, and speed and arm strength for the long haul.    But the Bat is the foundational skill.   The Holliday who is better than Gunnar I think beats him in AVG/OBP by ~50 points - maybe like Adam Frazier's Steve Rogers after the super serum, though that might be encroaching on Adley's hero turf.

Ohtani 412, Yandy 410, Yordan 407, Judge 406, Seager 390, Crawford 380, Adley 374, Tucker 369, Casas 367, Arozarena 364 was the AL OBP top 10 in 2023 as targets for Holliday-Adley-Gunnar (Cowser?) to shoot for, ranging across that 50-ish point OBP spread I think Holliday may be able to outdo Gunnar typically.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm just curious if anyone knows how Holliday and Henderson compared at this age? I think Henderson would have been a higher prospect. I'm just trying to get some context on what I should expect for Holliday. It's a great situation for the team regardless.

Hard to compare, because Gunnar’s first full pro season was delayed by a year when COVID shut down the 2020 minor league season. Holliday went through the entire minor league system at age 19, while Gunnar was relegated to having some at bats at the Alt. Site that year.   Gunnar got to Bowie the next year, so clearly behind where Holliday is now though being 6-7 months older than Holliday at the time.  

[Billy F-Face3]

Biggest thing I'm looking for with Jackson in spring training is to see what type of range he has on defense. I want to know if he can be reliable defensively at the shortstop position like Gunnar is. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Hard to compare, because Gunnar’s first full pro season was delayed by a year when COVID shut down the 2020 minor league season. Holliday went through the entire minor league system at age 19, while Gunnar was relegated to having some at bats at the Alt. Site that year.   Gunnar got to Bowie the next year, so clearly behind where Holliday is now though being 6-7 months older than Holliday at the time.  

I hear you... I guess what I really meant is, which player would be expected to have the better career in the end? I know that is a hard question to answer with so many variables, but I find it hard to wrap my head around Holliday and Henderson being so young and on the same team. If I had to vote I'd say Henderson, simply because we've seen what he's capable of. That's not meant to take anything away from Holliday at all.

 

When Gunnar made his debut at Delmarva you could clearly tell that he was different than the rest. I'm a huge Westburg fan, and while he is/was an excellent prospect it was still such a a difference between the two. Holliday certainly has the tools but I think the power will be the difference between him and Henderson.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I hear you... I guess what I really meant is, which player would be expected to have the better career in the end? I know that is a hard question to answer with so many variables, but I find it hard to wrap my head around Holliday and Henderson being so young and on the same team. If I had to vote I'd say Henderson, simply because we've seen what he's capable of. That's not meant to take anything away from Holliday at all.

 

When Gunnar made his debut at Delmarva you could clearly tell that he was different than the rest. I'm a huge Westburg fan, and while he is/was an excellent prospect it was still such a a difference between the two. Holliday certainly has the tools but I think the power will be the difference between him and Henderson.

I think they’ll be different types of players.  Holliday will hit for better average, and probably put up the higher OBP.   Gunnar started last year with a high OBP, but found his passivity was hurting his BA and his power and became more aggressive.   I’m going to be interested to see (1) if Gunnar finds a way to start bringing his OBP back up without sacrificing his aggressiveness, and (2) whether Holliday will encounter some of the same issues Gunnar did.   

As to who’s better long term, I think Gunnar has set the bar pretty high.  Holliday may be able to hurdle it, but he’ll have to prove it.