TT: How both Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo can make the opening day roster

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Urias won a GG at that spot and is on the roster. Why is he on the team if you are going to play Mayo over him?

Plenty of real good hitters had an OPS if around 100 their first year. Devers was at 94 his first full year at his age 21 season.  
 

I’m not arguing about his upside. I’m pointing out how the roster is built and how they operate. 

Urias won that GG in 2022.  Did you think his defense in 2023 was as good?  Mateo had a very impressive year with the glove in 2022, looks like it was an outlier, which happens with defense.

[eddie83]

20 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

It's not all about the glove.   While he may not be as good with the glove,  I think he outperforms Urias enough with the bat to more than offset any defensive declines.  It won't matter as he's starting in AAA, but he should make the OD roster and getting at bats over the likes of Urias and Mateo.

If the Orioles don’t value the glove Urias brings then why is he around? 

There is no evidence that is a guarantee when Mayo sticks it will be at 3rd. It very well may be but it may not be. 

The Orioles goal is to maximize their roster. It’s not to maximize the number of at bats in the big leagues for a specific player. Is there a fear the club is going to let Mayo stay at AAA if the big league club needs his bat? 
 

The narrative that Mateo is taking at bats away from others I just don’t get. If Gunnar is playing mainly at SS and that’s clearly Mateo’s best spot how much do people think he is going to play? He is a bench player. When the kids come up they aren’t going to be bench players. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Urias won that GG in 2022.  Did you think his defense in 2023 was as good?  Mateo had a very impressive year with the glove in 2022, looks like it was an outlier, which happens with defense.

So you are telling me that Mayo is a the best option with the glove at 3rd base? 

[SilverRocket]

Mansolino on Mayo's defense a couple weeks ago from https://www.masnsports.com/blog/mansolino-talks-about-holliday-defense-at-second-and-mayo-at-third :

Quote

“He’s come a long way,” Mansolino said. “Seeing him last year, I think there were a lot of question marks from everybody who watched it. Seeing him this year, you see a path forward. Is he a guy right now who could come to the big leagues and be a plus defender in the major leagues? Probably not there yet. But can he be? We hope so. He’s gonna have to continue to work hard.

“There is a precedent for big-bodied third basemen. We saw one in (North Port) in Austin Riley. I think that’s kind of like the mold you want is that type of size. So, as you look at it and we see the progress, I think it gives us a lot of hope. He's come a long way. And he’s actually a guy now who, you could probably throw him in a game in the big leagues and feel like we’re going to be OK. But we need more than that, too, going forward.

“We want plus defenders all around the field. That’s what this current iteration of the Baltimore Orioles, that’s what we need to be to win the AL East. Coby’s on his way. He’s come a long way. We have a lot more faith and confidence in his ability than what we had in the past, and that’s a credit to him and it’s a credit to the minor league staff to get him to this point. We’re thrilled, but we have to keep building on it.”

That to me sounds like they don't think he's ready with the glove yet, or at least will use that as a reason to keep him in AAA.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So you are telling me that Mayo is a the best option with the glove at 3rd base? 

Nope.

I didn't say that.

[forphase1]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If the Orioles don’t value the glove Urias brings then why is he around? 

There is no evidence that is a guarantee when Mayo sticks it will be at 3rd. It very well may be but it may not be. 

The Orioles goal is to maximize their roster. It’s not to maximize the number of at bats in the big leagues for a specific player. Is there a fear the club is going to let Mayo stay at AAA if the big league club needs his bat? 
 

The narrative that Mateo is taking at bats away from others I just don’t get. If Gunnar is playing mainly at SS and that’s clearly Mateo’s best spot how much do people think he is going to play? He is a bench player. When the kids come up they aren’t going to be bench players. 

I never said they didn't value the glove.  As to why he's around, beats me.  Our talent overall has risen to the point we no longer need a Urias on the roster, yet he's still here.  I don't hate Urias.  But he took a huge step backwards last year (roughly 1/2 the WAR in the same amount of games, more or less) and with the talent ready to be on the field, he shouldn't be on the roster as anything more than an pure backup and a VERY occasional starter.  Same with Mateo.  Problem is both of them, Urias and Mateo, will get more starts than they should, especially if Holliday and Mayo are in AAA, as in that case one of them is starting almost every game.

The goal should be to maximize their roster, I agree 100%.  Urias (and Mateo) were great guys to have around when we were rebuilding and needed to take some chances on waiver wire, rule 5 types.  And both have performed well.  But those days are in the past now, and we have more talented players ready to take their spots.  We don't maximize the roster by having our best players in AAA being blocked by decent, but not great, players.  The big league club could use his bat now, if you are taking about him or Urias.  I think Mayo's bat is much better than Urias, enough that the drop off in defense is more than offset by the increased bat.  IMO.

It's not rocket science, ie Mateo/Urias taking at bats.  Every single at bat Mateo or Urias gets is an at bat that could have gone to a Mayo, Westburg, Henderson, Holliday, etc.  Last fall even when he was terrible with the bat, Mateo still started about a 1/3rd of the games.  If we get Mateo 200+ at bats this year, that's a terrible thing.  I don't mind if we treat him like the pinch runner, OCCASIONAL breather, bench player his bat has shown he should be.  But if we view him as a 'platoon' player or someone we MUCH start 1-2 times a week, then he's taking at bats that should go to a more talented/better player.  My fear is that he still get's his 1/3rd starts due to the way we handled him last year.  And now they are looking for more excuses/reasons to keep him around by having in play in the OF.  As I've said hundreds of times, if he's REALLY a bench role/player, then ok.  But I don't trust Elias/Hyde/Sigbot to keep him in that role.  They didn't last fall, and I doubt they do this year.  If they aren't going to use him sparingly only, then I'd rather him be off the roster entirely than to be overused.  

At the end of the day I don't think much of this matters really.  Yes, I'd MUCH rather have Holliday, Westburg, Henderson and Mayo rotating starts at 2nd, SS and 3rd between them, with whoever is kept between Mateo/Urias rarely starting, coming in for pinch running/mop up type duties.  But I expect Holliday and Mayo to start in AAA, leaving us starting one of Urias or Mateo almost every night, and the other also getting more playing time than he should with all the talent in AAA.  I hope to be wrong and that at least one of the IF kids makes the team, but I'm not betting on it.

 

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Mansolino on Mayo's defense a couple weeks ago from https://www.masnsports.com/blog/mansolino-talks-about-holliday-defense-at-second-and-mayo-at-third :

That to me sounds like they don't think he's ready with the glove yet, or at least will use that as a reason to keep him in AAA.

If you listen to Blood on Front Office show you would get same impression. I wish I could link it somehow. 

[Since1984]

22 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I don't disagree with all of it. But I disagree over a fair amount.

I can guess it has to do with higher upside prospects . I believe in balance of experience and see a season that will be maximized be an elite FO.

[Satyr3206]

2 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

I can guess it has to do with higher upside prospects . I believe in balance of experience and see a season that will be maximized be an elite FO.

That's fine. I like the prospects.

[eddie83]

47 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I never said they didn't value the glove.  As to why he's around, beats me.  Our talent overall has risen to the point we no longer need a Urias on the roster, yet he's still here.  I don't hate Urias.  But he took a huge step backwards last year (roughly 1/2 the WAR in the same amount of games, more or less) and with the talent ready to be on the field, he shouldn't be on the roster as anything more than an pure backup and a VERY occasional starter.  Same with Mateo.  Problem is both of them, Urias and Mateo, will get more starts than they should, especially if Holliday and Mayo are in AAA, as in that case one of them is starting almost every game.

The goal should be to maximize their roster, I agree 100%.  Urias (and Mateo) were great guys to have around when we were rebuilding and needed to take some chances on waiver wire, rule 5 types.  And both have performed well.  But those days are in the past now, and we have more talented players ready to take their spots.  We don't maximize the roster by having our best players in AAA being blocked by decent, but not great, players.  The big league club could use his bat now, if you are taking about him or Urias.  I think Mayo's bat is much better than Urias, enough that the drop off in defense is more than offset by the increased bat.  IMO.

It's not rocket science, ie Mateo/Urias taking at bats.  Every single at bat Mateo or Urias gets is an at bat that could have gone to a Mayo, Westburg, Henderson, Holliday, etc.  Last fall even when he was terrible with the bat, Mateo still started about a 1/3rd of the games.  If we get Mateo 200+ at bats this year, that's a terrible thing.  I don't mind if we treat him like the pinch runner, OCCASIONAL breather, bench player his bat has shown he should be.  But if we view him as a 'platoon' player or someone we MUCH start 1-2 times a week, then he's taking at bats that should go to a more talented/better player.  My fear is that he still get's his 1/3rd starts due to the way we handled him last year.  And now they are looking for more excuses/reasons to keep him around by having in play in the OF.  As I've said hundreds of times, if he's REALLY a bench role/player, then ok.  But I don't trust Elias/Hyde/Sigbot to keep him in that role.  They didn't last fall, and I doubt they do this year.  If they aren't going to use him sparingly only, then I'd rather him be off the roster entirely than to be overused.  

At the end of the day I don't think much of this matters really.  Yes, I'd MUCH rather have Holliday, Westburg, Henderson and Mayo rotating starts at 2nd, SS and 3rd between them, with whoever is kept between Mateo/Urias rarely starting, coming in for pinch running/mop up type duties.  But I expect Holliday and Mayo to start in AAA, leaving us starting one of Urias or Mateo almost every night, and the other also getting more playing time than he should with all the talent in AAA.  I hope to be wrong and that at least one of the IF kids makes the team, but I'm not betting on it.

 

You don’t just give 2 WAR players away for nothing. Urias has a solid glove with a league average bat. That has value. Injuries and underperformance happen. Depth is a good thing to have. 
 

Mateo is not getting a ton of at bats. I don’t know why you keep thinking he will. The point of him playing the OF is to maximize his roster spot. 
 

You think if the offense underperforms the FO will just sit back and do nothing? 

[now]

1 hour ago, SilverRocket said:

Mansolino on Mayo's defense a couple weeks ago from https://www.masnsports.com/blog/mansolino-talks-about-holliday-defense-at-second-and-mayo-at-third :

That to me sounds like they don't think he's ready with the glove yet, or at least will use that as a reason to keep him in AAA.

Mansolino's "plus defenders all around the field" finally explains their D-first valuation in favor of Urias and Mateo. It also doesn't bode well for "average" defenders like Kjerstad, Stowers and Norby.

[forphase1]

42 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You don’t just give 2 WAR players away for nothing. Urias has a solid glove with a league average bat. That has value. Injuries and underperformance happen. Depth is a good thing to have. 
 

Mateo is not getting a ton of at bats. I don’t know why you keep thinking he will. The point of him playing the OF is to maximize his roster spot. 
 

You think if the offense underperforms the FO will just sit back and do nothing? 

Sure, I'd love to trade him, and not give him away for nothing.  But if the ONLY way we can free up a roster spot is to move Urias, even if it means just cutting him, then so be it.

Neither of us know how many at bats Mateo is going to get.  I don't know why you keep thinking he won't.  Last year when he sucked he was still getting 1 out of every 3 starts.  Until management shows they are only going to treat him as a role/bench player, I'm expecting them to play him like they did last year.  At least a third of the time, and WAY too much IMO.  Again, I'd love to be wrong, but until they show me he's not playing much, I'm expecting them to use him like they did last year.

I don't know.  The starting pitching has major issues, but other than Burnes they did practically nothing.  The bullpen has questions, but other than Kimbrel they did nothing.  So IF the offense underperforms, I'm not sure what they do.  If they send the kids to AA for service time issues, I'm not sure that they will change that course if the O struggles. 

[Jammer7]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think playing at a lower level than their talent warrants might hamper their development?

Over time, maybe. It depends on the player. Still better than sitting, playing twice a week.

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I never said they didn't value the glove.  As to why he's around, beats me.  Our talent overall has risen to the point we no longer need a Urias on the roster, yet he's still here.  I don't hate Urias.  But he took a huge step backwards last year (roughly 1/2 the WAR in the same amount of games, more or less) and with the talent ready to be on the field, he shouldn't be on the roster as anything more than an pure backup and a VERY occasional starter.  Same with Mateo.  Problem is both of them, Urias and Mateo, will get more starts than they should, especially if Holliday and Mayo are in AAA, as in that case one of them is starting almost every game.

The goal should be to maximize their roster, I agree 100%.  Urias (and Mateo) were great guys to have around when we were rebuilding and needed to take some chances on waiver wire, rule 5 types.  And both have performed well.  But those days are in the past now, and we have more talented players ready to take their spots.  We don't maximize the roster by having our best players in AAA being blocked by decent, but not great, players.  The big league club could use his bat now, if you are taking about him or Urias.  I think Mayo's bat is much better than Urias, enough that the drop off in defense is more than offset by the increased bat.  IMO.

It's not rocket science, ie Mateo/Urias taking at bats.  Every single at bat Mateo or Urias gets is an at bat that could have gone to a Mayo, Westburg, Henderson, Holliday, etc.  Last fall even when he was terrible with the bat, Mateo still started about a 1/3rd of the games.  If we get Mateo 200+ at bats this year, that's a terrible thing.  I don't mind if we treat him like the pinch runner, OCCASIONAL breather, bench player his bat has shown he should be.  But if we view him as a 'platoon' player or someone we MUCH start 1-2 times a week, then he's taking at bats that should go to a more talented/better player.  My fear is that he still get's his 1/3rd starts due to the way we handled him last year.  And now they are looking for more excuses/reasons to keep him around by having in play in the OF.  As I've said hundreds of times, if he's REALLY a bench role/player, then ok.  But I don't trust Elias/Hyde/Sigbot to keep him in that role.  They didn't last fall, and I doubt they do this year.  If they aren't going to use him sparingly only, then I'd rather him be off the roster entirely than to be overused.  

At the end of the day I don't think much of this matters really.  Yes, I'd MUCH rather have Holliday, Westburg, Henderson and Mayo rotating starts at 2nd, SS and 3rd between them, with whoever is kept between Mateo/Urias rarely starting, coming in for pinch running/mop up type duties.  But I expect Holliday and Mayo to start in AAA, leaving us starting one of Urias or Mateo almost every night, and the other also getting more playing time than he should with all the talent in AAA.  I hope to be wrong and that at least one of the IF kids makes the team, but I'm not betting on it.

 

I agree with your statement overall premise regarding the young INF prospects/players. However, I do not agree with lumping Henderson in with that group. IMO he is established as one of our best/cornerstone players now. No one will be taking ABs/playing time away from him. And I most certainly don’t want him rotating spots with 3 other guys. I hope that Holliday can be d of a player as him, but as of now that is a mystery. The other two (Westburg & Mayo) while good would be a fall off by replacing him with them, or giving them equal playing time.

IMO Henderson is a budding superstar. The rest of those guys, it remains to be seen.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Over time, maybe. It depends on the player. Still better than sitting, playing twice a week.

And I don't think they will just be sitting.