Jackson Holliday 2024

[catseyepub]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

I acknowledge the possibility that his MLB performance is affecting my evaluation of him.  But his performance was really bad.  He showed lots of holes.  I do think he is a bit of a tweener with regard to his power and that is a concern for me. 

Yeah, he's a tweener at 20 but think what he'll be at 21 or 22.

[catseyepub]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

His defensive metrics were excellent in the MLB.

Knowing that he was nervous, his defense was not in anyways smooth.

He's got something to prove 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

Yeah, he's a tweener at 20 but think what he'll be at 21 or 22.

He’ll probably be out of baseball or traded for a AAAA player.

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

His defensive metrics were excellent in the MLB.

Which exposes a somewhat flawed metric.  He has all the attributes to be an elite middle infiielder but right now-at a new position he's not close.  He is on- pace for ~35 errors as a 2b which is historically atrocious-bear in mind that errors are "defined" (committed) today at a rate 1/3 less prior to the 1980's.  The yearly leader in errors by a 2b over the past two decades averages ~14!!!!- He's made 10 in 40 games.....

And we all know that error's in itself, as a judgement call is fundamentally flawed-especially when it doesn't take into account range or game context.  However in my experience error trends are usefull in not only calling out blunders but the other non-judgements that go as hits (that previously, historically were not) but also sloppy fundamental play (eg: those CoC's that fell in behind him).

 

Edited June 13 by SemperFi

[baltfan]

9 minutes ago, catseyepub said:

Yeah, he's a tweener at 20 but think what he'll be at 21 or 22.

When I say a tweener, I mean power-wise.  I should have been more clear.  I am not suggesting he will be a AAAA player.

[interloper]

Just now, baltfan said:

When I say a tweener, I mean power-wise.  I should have been more clear.  I am not suggesting he will be a AAAA player.

Agree. I just don't think age 20 is his time. 

[Satyr3206]

He has to grow some Man Muscles.

[baltfan]

18 minutes ago, interloper said:

Agree. I just don't think age 20 is his time. 

That’s fair.  Guys definitely develop later and he might be one of them. 

[e16bball]

58 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

A lot of what goes into his "ranking" is the age/level combo'd with his command of the strike zone.

Somehow people forget, he's only 20.

I think this point really has to be amplified to the fullest volume. Even at AAA, he is massively younger than pretty much anyone else out there.

Taking the top 50 guys at the AAA level across the minors by wRC+ (both IL and PCL), here is the breakdown by age:

24 years or older: 43 players

23 years old: 4 players (Kyle Manzardo, Jordan Beck, Jace Jung, Curtis Mead)

22 years old: 1 player (Coby Mayo)

21 years old: 1 player (James Wood)

20 years old: 1 player (Jackson Holliday)

Coby Mayo is the 3rd youngest top 50 hitter at the AAA level — and he’s two full years older than Jackson Holliday.

James Wood is the 2nd youngest top 50 hitter at the AAA level — and he’s 14 months older than Jackson Holliday.

[Ohfan67]

49 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Which exposes a somewhat flawed metric.  He has all the attributes to be an elite middle infiielder but right now-at a new position he's not close.  He is on- pace for ~35 errors as a 2b which is historically atrocious-bear in mind that errors are "defined" (committed) today at a rate 1/3 less prior to the 1980's.  The yearly leader in errors by a 2b over the past two decades averages ~14!!!!- He's made 10 in 40 games.....

And we all know that error's in itself, as a judgement call is fundamentally flawed-especially when it doesn't take into account range or game context.  However in my experience error trends are usefull in not only calling out blunders but the other non-judgements that go as hits (that previously, historically were not) but also sloppy fundamental play (eg: those CoC's that fell in behind him).

 

Minor league errors are weird. Manny Machado made 23 errors in 104 games at Bowie in 2012. He basically tied the maximum number of errors committed by a ML shortstop and would have been close to first in errors at 3B in just 104 minor league games. Machado was promoted during that season and looked like the second coming of Brooks, even though Machado made five errors at 3B that season after his promotion. I don't think anybody would argue that Holliday looked great at 2B, but minor league errors or even errors after promotion are definitely not the best way to judge future defense of young players. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Minor league errors are weird. Manny Machado made 23 errors in 104 games at Bowie in 2012. He basically tied the maximum number of errors committed by a ML shortstop and would have been close to first in errors at 3B in just 104 minor league games. Machado was promoted during that season and looked like the second coming of Brooks, even though Machado made five errors at 3B that season after his promotion. I don't think anybody would argue that Holliday looked great at 2B, but minor league errors or even errors after promotion are definitely not the best way to judge future defense of young players. 

Poor fields lead to errors quite often in the minors.  I’m not worried about errors.

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think this point really has to be amplified to the fullest volume. Even at AAA, he is massively younger than pretty much anyone else out there.

Taking the top 50 guys at the AAA level across the minors by wRC+ (both IL and PCL), here is the breakdown by age:

24 years or older: 43 players

23 years old: 4 players (Kyle Manzardo, Jordan Beck, Jace Jung, Curtis Mead)

22 years old: 1 player (Coby Mayo)

21 years old: 1 player (James Wood)

20 years old: 1 player (Jackson Holliday)

Coby Mayo is the 3rd youngest top 50 hitter at the AAA level — and he’s two full years older than Jackson Holliday.

James Wood is the 2nd youngest top 50 hitter at the AAA level — and he’s 14 months older than Jackson Holliday.

Great post here.

[e16bball]

Another way to look at the age thing might be by comparison to guys we know turned out to be good or even great players at the ML level.

Where were they at age 20? (2B Edition)

Robinson Cano: A+ / AA ball

Posted a .277 / .322 / .374 / .695 line for the full season, split between the two levels. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 22 (106 OPS+).

Chase Utley: College sophomore

Posted a .317 / .380 / .557 / .937 line for UCLA in the Pac 10. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 26 (132 OPS+).

Dustin Pedroia: College junior / A / A+ ball

Posted a .357 / .435 / .535 line across the two levels in 42 games after being drafted. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 23 (112 OPS+).

Jose Altuve: A / A+ ball

Posted a .301 / .357 / .448 / .805 line for the full season, split between the two levels. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 22 (101 OPS+).

Ian Kinsler: College sophomore

Posted a .230 / .246 / .262 / .508 line in just 29 games for Arizona State in the Pac 10. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 24 (105 OPS+).

Daniel Murphy: College sophomore

Posted a .329 / .381 / .429 / .810 line for Jacksonville State in the Atlantic Sun Conference. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 26 (126 OPS+).

Marcus Semien: College junior / A ball

Posted a .253 / .320 / .376 / .696 line after being drafted out of Cal. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 28 (139 OPS+).

Brian Roberts: College sophomore

Posted a whopping .353 / .453 / .601 / 1.054 line at North Carolina in the ACC. Had his first above-average MLB season at age 27 (139 OPS+).

Jordan Westburg: College sophomore

Posted a .294 / .402 / .457 / .859 line for Mississippi State in the SEC. Hopefully having his first above-average MLB season at age 25.

 

I think those are pretty much the best 2Bs of the last 20 years or so, plus a couple hometown favorites. If Jackson is destined to end up there, it’s pretty much undeniable that he is light years ahead of every single one of those guys at age 20. Which I think is pretty promising. 

Like all those guys, he may not have the crazy-loud tools of guys like Gunnar, Witt, and Acuna that are able to splash the MLB scene immediately at extremely young ages. Lower ceiling, probably. But seeing how his development compares to where guys like Cano, Altuve, and Utley were at comparable ages — miles ahead of them — feels pretty good when it comes to pegging his floor, not to mention his most probable outcomes.

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Minor league errors are weird. Manny Machado made 23 errors in 104 games at Bowie in 2012. He basically tied the maximum number of errors committed by a ML shortstop and would have been close to first in errors at 3B in just 104 minor league games. Machado was promoted during that season and looked like the second coming of Brooks, even though Machado made five errors at 3B that season after his promotion. I don't think anybody would argue that Holliday looked great at 2B, but minor league errors or even errors after promotion are definitely not the best way to judge future defense of young players. 

 

To your first point you can't compare volume of errors between SS and 2B-you get 20% less chances/PO, the throws are much longer and more difficult-it's a much more difficult place to play-frankly, one he has been competent at.  Even with that he's on a pace to commit 30 errors v. Machado's 23 in the same time period....and he's at 2B.  

I agree that in time he will be an elite middle infielder-my larger point being the errors are not indicative of his future fielding rather him learing a new position.  Many feel that you can just put him anywhere-2B, CF but he's never played there and there is a learning curve.

He has likely played SS (or pitched) since he was 5 years old, all that muscle memory and instinct was built on the other side of the bag.  I can recall multiple times when he blew assigments because he was confused.  If ME decides he is to be a 2B he needs more experience at the position.

Edited June 13 by SemperFi

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

He has to grow some Man Muscles.

Wait till he can squat 800.