Winter 2024 40-Man Additions

[Jammer7]

I think Young will be added, and that is it. I like Pham, but no AAA experience makes him unlikely to be taken.

Whatever open spots should be used to upgrade the bullpen and other pitching depth. It is well documented here that we don’t have much beyond raw guys like Strowd and Heid. we lack flexibility and options. This has to change. 

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I think Young will be added, and that is it. I like Pham, but no AAA experience makes him unlikely to be taken.

Whatever open spots should be used to upgrade the bullpen and other pitching depth. It is well documented here that we don’t have much beyond raw guys like Strowd and Heid. we lack flexibility and options. This has to change. 

If we have room, why wouldn't we add Pham and Van Loon just to have available depth in AAA (whether or not they are at risk of being taken)? 

[Jammer7]

11 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If we have room, why wouldn't we add Pham and Van Loon just to have available depth in AAA (whether or not they are at risk of being taken)? 

When you are in a championship window, roster spots are extremely important. You need room to wiggle, but also usable players for the major league roster in that year.

They could add another, but I don’t think Pham or Van Loon would be lost. If they are, they’re easily replaced. We need shuttle arms, with many of our current group out of options. I wonder if they actually even take a rule 5 pick this year. 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Jammer7 said:

When you are in a championship window, roster spots are extremely important. You need room to wiggle, but also usable players for the major league roster in that year.

They could add another, but I don’t think Pham or Van Loon would be lost. If they are, they’re easily replaced. We need shuttle arms, with many of our current group out of options. I wonder if they actually even take a rule 5 pick this year. 

I guess you are weighing the roster spot versus the risk of them being taken. Even though the risk is low, it seems like they have enough AA experience that they could be part of the shuttle group pretty much right away, in that Vespi/Baker role where they are mostly pitching in AAA. I would just hate to lose anyone who could be remotely considered a pitching prospect.

[Jammer7]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I guess you are weighing the roster spot versus the risk of them being taken. Even though the risk is low, it seems like they have enough AA experience that they could be part of the shuttle group pretty much right away, in that Vespi/Baker role where they are mostly pitching in AAA. I would just hate to lose anyone who could be remotely considered a pitching prospect.

I gotcha. It depends if they think Pham and Van Loon impactfully can help them in 2025. There is such a gap between AAA and the majors, I don’t know for sure what they’ll do. Just a guess, but I think they’ll look for a little more experience. What they do with McDermott is another thing to watch. He should be in the pen in 2025, IMO. Upgrading the pen flexibility is a real need, maybe they think those two can help there. Maybe an Armbruster as well. 

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I guess you are weighing the roster spot versus the risk of them being taken. Even though the risk is low, it seems like they have enough AA experience that they could be part of the shuttle group pretty much right away, in that Vespi/Baker role where they are mostly pitching in AAA. I would just hate to lose anyone who could be remotely considered a pitching prospect.

There’s no reason to add Van Loon or Pham now.   If next season, they’re performing well and we need to put them on the shuttle, they can be added then.    Frankly, I don’t even think Young would be selected by another team but I do think he’ll be added.

[Aristotelian]

36 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I gotcha. It depends if they think Pham and Van Loon impactfully can help them in 2025. There is such a gap between AAA and the majors, I don’t know for sure what they’ll do. Just a guess, but I think they’ll look for a little more experience. What they do with McDermott is another thing to watch. He should be in the pen in 2025, IMO. Upgrading the pen flexibility is a real need, maybe they think those two can help there. Maybe an Armbruster as well. 

You are probably right. Also the bullpen looks a lot better with Bautista coming back. It's a tally been solid since we demoted Kimbrel and picked up Seranthony. Bautista, Cano, Seranthony is solid along with Cionel, Akin, and maybe Soto. Might not need much more than that.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

You are probably right. Also the bullpen looks a lot better with Bautista coming back. It's a tally been solid since we demoted Kimbrel and picked up Seranthony. Bautista, Cano, Seranthony is solid along with Cionel, Akin, and maybe Soto. Might not need much more than that.

You always need shuttle guys. Ideally, I would think they’d like to have 2-3 spots they can interchange between 5-6 guys. That allows them to maybe get some younger arms in there, like McDermott and the others we mentioned already. 

Bautista, if he is back to his old form, Seranthony, Cano, Soto (who I think may just surprise some people), while Cionel and Akin are not sure things. Either could be moved. They should make some moves there, IMO. Cionel has not really improved as much as I had hoped. Akin has had a very good year. Are they ARB eligible this year?

[wildcard]

On 9/8/2024 at 11:31 AM, Jammer7 said:

You always need shuttle guys. Ideally, I would think they’d like to have 2-3 spots they can interchange between 5-6 guys. That allows them to maybe get some younger arms in there, like McDermott and the others we mentioned already. 

Bautista, if he is back to his old form, Seranthony, Cano, Soto (who I think may just surprise some people), while Cionel and Akin are not sure things. Either could be moved. They should make some moves there, IMO. Cionel has not really improved as much as I had hoped. Akin has had a very good year. Are they ARB eligible this year?

Coulombe and Webb will also be in the pen.    McDermott, Young, Povich and Rogers all have options and don't have to be on the team on OD.    O's have used 32 pitchers in 2024.   All these pitchers will probably see time with the O's in 2025.

One of Elias tasks over the winter is to stock AAA with talent.

[Jammer7]

17 hours ago, wildcard said:

Coulombe and Webb will also be in the pen.    McDermott, Young, Povich and Rogers all have options and don't have to be on the team on OD.    O's have used 32 pitchers in 2024.   All these pitchers will probably see time with the O's in 2025.

One of Elias tasks over the winter is to stock AAA with talent.

I get all of that, sure. But they need pen guys on the active roster who have options so they can send them down and bring others up. No? Unless you want to DFA people. I am not sure that both Webb and Coulombe will be back. 

[luismatos4prez]

The minor league season is over. Let's take a final look at the candidates to be added and make our final predictions.

The Candidates

1. Brandon Young: 3.14 FIP in 111 IP between Bowie and Norfolk this year.

2. Kade Strowd: 4.29 FIP in the Bowie and Norfolk bullpens this year. Most impressively, a 2.81 FIP and only 3.83 BB/9 since the beginning of August.

3. Alex Pham: 3.87 FIP in 119 IP in Bowie, most impressively a 3.03 FIP in the 2nd half of the year.

4. Edgar Portes: Only 21 and had a 3.41 FIP in 94.1 IP in Aberdeen.

5. Peter Van Loon: He was mentioned a few times by folks in this thread. He's 25 but had a nice 2nd half in Bowie with a 3.34 FIP.

6. Luis Gonzalez: 32 year old who surprisingly never got called up this year despite a pretty strong year in Norfolk (3.69 FIP)

My Final Thoughts

Brandon Young is a lock.

I had ruled Kade Strowd off, but his last 8 weeks were very impressive. It's possible he pitched his way to getting protected or drafted, but ultimately I'm going to guess his larger body of work (5.93 BB/9 in Norfolk) rules that out. There's a reason he's not in Tony's Top 40 right now.

Alex Pham had a good year in Bowie, but not getting the promotion to Norfolk at age 24 makes me think The Warehouse views him as more of a Ryan Watson or Garrett Stallings type. 

None of Portes, Van Loon, or Gonzalez are serious candidates to be protected in my opinion.

I'm less confident this year than the last few years. But I know Mike is very stingy with 40-man roster spots, letting marginal prospects like Zach Pop go unprotected despite plenty of spots on the roster.

My final prediction is only Brandon Young will be protected this year.

Who disagrees?

[OriolesMagic83]

On 9/8/2024 at 9:37 AM, Aristotelian said:

I guess you are weighing the roster spot versus the risk of them being taken. Even though the risk is low, it seems like they have enough AA experience that they could be part of the shuttle group pretty much right away, in that Vespi/Baker role where they are mostly pitching in AAA. I would just hate to lose anyone who could be remotely considered a pitching prospect.

Or a guy that can just come up and give innings when the bullpen is shot after a doubleheader or even give a spot start and then be sent back down.  Is Pham a likely future ML starter, no, but he might bail the O's out of a pitching bind multiple times next year.  

[Frobby]

Young is almost certain to be added.  There’s a possibility they’ll also add Pham, but I’d say less than 50%.   I don’t see anyone else listed who’s at all likely.  

[HowAboutThat]

I wonder if Mike Elias will leave a spot or two open on the 40 man for a rule five pic? Given the trouble we had this season with pitching, it seems like a no-brainer to try and find a usable guy in the rule five draft and I remain disappointed that they didn’t make a pick last season