2024 Bowie Baysox

[deward]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

11:00 AM game today.

And could Beavers or Fabian soon get a promotion to fill Heston's AAA spot?

Might depend on how long they expect Kjerstad to stay up. Beavers has over 200 PA at AA now, with a .915 OPS, so I'd say he's earned a promotion regardless. Certainly no reason to let Burdick or McKenna stand in his way. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

11:00 AM game today.

And could Beavers or Fabian soon get a promotion to fill Heston's AAA spot?

I think they’ll wait a few weeks to see if Heston sticks.  

[DirtyBird]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think they’ll wait a few weeks to see if Heston sticks.  

Let me get this straight - the thought of optioning an underperforming Hays is poor people management, but giving Heston a few weeks to see if he sticks is proper people management?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Let me get this straight - the thought of optioning an underperforming Hays is poor people management, but giving Heston a few weeks to see if he sticks is proper people management?

If you don’t understand the difference between a veteran who has been important to the team for years and a rookie getting his feet wet, I don’t know what to tell you.  Hays got sent to the minors numerous times between 2017 and 2020, so it’s not like he didn’t pay his dues before settling in.

i don’t want to overstate my point.  It’s still a meritocracy.  But the sample size isn’t at the point where optioning Hays is going to happen.  

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If you don’t understand the difference between a veteran who has been important to the team for years and a rookie getting his feet wet, I don’t know what to tell you.  Hays got sent to the minors numerous times between 2017 and 2020, so it’s not like he didn’t pay his dues before settling in.

i don’t want to overstate my point.  It’s still a meritocracy.  But the sample size isn’t at the point where optioning Hays is going to happen.  

The rookie is a #2 overall selection, now 25 years old, who battled back from missing significant time with non-baseball related illness, was called up last season but had mostly sit behind a mediocre performing veteran (Hays), and is performing better at the minor league levels than Hays ever did.

But, I guess he hasn’t paid his dues and is just temporarily holding a spot for the guy who was fortunate enough to come up when he was much younger and the organization was in bad shape.

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The rookie is a #2 overall selection, now 25 years old, who battled back from missing significant time with non-baseball related illness, was called up last season but had mostly sit behind a mediocre performing veteran (Hays), and is performing better at the minor league levels than Hays ever did.

But, I guess he hasn’t paid his dues and is just temporarily holding a spot for the guy who was fortunate enough to come up when he was much younger and the organization was in bad shape.

If the O’s want Kjerstad to play over Hays, they’ll find a way to do that.  They will NOT do it by optioning Hays to the minor leagues at this point.  Won’t. Happen.

But by the way, Hays was a finalist for MiL player of the year in 2017, so I don’t buy the premise that Kjerstad is performing better than Hays ever did.  Among other things, Hays was a very good two-way player.  Kjerstad has a questionable glove.  

[wildcard]

Norfolk kinda short on infielders.   Might see Cook promotion from the Baysox.

[Hazmat]

Anthony Servideo is on a little heater.  2 doubles and 2 homeruns in May to bring him up to .250, .337, .434 for an OPS of .771.  It's nice to see him have some success after injuries and disappointing performance in 2023.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Stark contrast between the numbers for Bowie’s pitching staff and Norfolk’s. Obviously a lot of that is the offensive level at AA/AAA, but I’m curious if any of these ~25/26 year old pitchers in AA are late bloomers and have the requisite stuff to be MLB relievers.

We’ve already seen Kade Strowd move up to AAA. Could any of these guys follow suit? They are all rule 5 eligible this offseason, they are going to need to be tested against AAA hitters this year to see if they are potential 40-man additions this offseason.

Brandon Young, 25, 1.23 xFIP

Zach Peek, 26, 2.25 xFIP

Keegan Gillies, 26, 2.54 xFIP

Trey McHough, 26, 2.90 xFIP

Kyle Brnovich, 26, 3.41 xFIP

Alex Pham, 24, 3.53 xFIP

Carlos Tavera, 25, 3.70 xFIP

Different offensive environment, but the only AAA pitchers with better than a 3.70 xFIP are Povich and Luis Gonzalez.

Gillies, Peek and Pham all have inflated ERAs that don’t match their xFIP, so I don’t expect them to get bumped up to AAA anytime soon. But Juan Nunez in A+ is also a fringy prospect who is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and needs to be bumped up to AA, so with the number of poor performers in AAA and strong performers in AA I expect to see some shuffling.

Very few from this group will turn out to be MLB pitchers, if any. But you never know what pitchers have MLB quality stuff and just need some kind of adjustment to unlock it. I’ll be paying close attention if the Orioles choose any from this group to be moved up to AAA and/or converted into full-time shorter RP roles in the near future. 

[Frobby]

Checking in on the Baysox, their record stands at 22-22, having scored 206 runs while allowing 205.   They are 5th of 12 in runs/game and 7th in runs allowed/game.  Pretty average all the way around.  

Offensively, the clear star has been Dylan Beavers, sporting a .289/.388/.511 slash line.   The unsung org player TT Bowen has an .838 OPS.  Jud Fabian currently sits at .774 (.235/.319/.456) and has been a bit up and down, but his K rate has dropped to 27.8%.  Samuel Basallo has been solid but unspectacular at .273/.314/.435; I keep waiting for an extended hot streak but it hasn’t come yet.   

Performance on the mound has been kind of unspectacular, with none of the starters averaging as much as 5 IP per start.   In 9 starts, Trace Bright has been the highlight at 3.10 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 40.2 innings, both team highs.  Seth Johnson (3.58 ERA and 29 K’s in 27.2 IP in 8 starts) is being nursed along, as is Brandon Young (4.09 ERA and 36 K’s in 22 IP spread over 7 appearances, 6 starts) and Kyle Brnovich (4.09 ERA and 46 K’s in 33 IP in 8 appearances, 3 starts).   Recently promoted Cameron Weston has a 2.37 ERA and 24 K’s in 19 IP and bears watching.   Alex Pham (6.87 ERA) and Ryan Long (5.03) have been disappointing.  

Overall, it’s been a pretty meh year for the Baysox all the way around so far. 
 

[Frobby]

I’m not quite ready to start a Kyle Brnovich thread, but he pitched well last night, allowing 1 run on 4 hits, 2 BB and 3 K’s in 5 IP.   He’s been very good at limiting the hits (only 24 in 38 IP), which also was a strength before his TJ surgery in early 2022 that ate up half of 2923 as well. However, he’s been gopher ball prone this year, allowing 8 homers among his 24 hits.  His BB rate also is higher than pre-surgery, at 4.3 compared to 3.1 for his career.  Overall, he’s at 3.79 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 2.7 K/BB.

Brnovich had reached AAA by the start of 2022 before needing TJ after two starts.  He resumed pitching in late June 2023 and made it as far as Bowie. But ended up missing about five weeks in August and September with some other malady.   Hopefully with a run of good outings he can make his way back to Norfolk.  

[DirtyBird]

The Baysox struck out 18 times today

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

The Baysox struck out 18 times today

Weird box score.  The Baysox had 14 men on base (8 hits, 6 walks), which isn’t bad at all.  But they went 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position.  

Seth Johnson and Carlos Tavera both pitched well.
 

[Just Regular]

On 5/29/2024 at 6:26 AM, Frobby said:

I’m not quite ready to start a Kyle Brnovich thread,

It looks like he really wants one....6 no-hit innings at Somerset.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

It looks like he really wants one....6 no-hit innings at Somerset.

That’s his fourth shutout outing out of ten.  He’s been a little inconsistent but has had more good outings than bad.