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Colton Cowser 2024


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7 minutes ago, deward said:

I wouldn't trade Kjerstad for a rental like Burnes. I'd be aiming for a top pitching prospect, or someone with less than two years of service time. If that kind of deal isn't out there, then he'd stay and Santander walks, in the alternate universe where they put me in charge.

I probably would. Burnes is a couple notches above Cease. 

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5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I probably would. Burnes is a couple notches above Cease. 

Burnes is great, but six years of a potential MOO bat like Kjerstad for one year of anybody seems like a bad deal to me. I don't want to see Elias get in the habit of dumping premium prospects for rentals, that's not a sustainable approach.

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5 minutes ago, deward said:

Burnes is great, but six years of a potential MOO bat like Kjerstad for one year of anybody seems like a bad deal to me. I don't want to see Elias get in the habit of dumping premium prospects for rentals, that's not a sustainable approach.

I don't want Elias to get into the habit of leaving ML ready prospects in the minors to rot.

Edited by Can_of_corn
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14 minutes ago, deward said:

I wouldn't trade Kjerstad for a rental like Burnes. I'd be aiming for a top pitching prospect, or someone with less than two years of service time. If that kind of deal isn't out there, then he'd stay and Santander walks, in the alternate universe where they put me in charge.

With how valuable starting pitching is, what team would realistically trade a starter with 2 or less years of service time? Maybe the Mariners? And I think the return for one of their top young guys would need to be a Cowser or a Kjerstad.

Otherwise, you can seek to acquire the Burnes/Cease types who have 1-2 years of control left. The market has already been set for the cost of acquiring those kind of guys.

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4 minutes ago, deward said:

Burnes is great, but six years of a potential MOO bat like Kjerstad for one year of anybody seems like a bad deal to me. I don't want to see Elias get in the habit of dumping premium prospects for rentals, that's not a sustainable approach.

I agree. I'm not against trading a top prospect like a Kjerstad, but I don't want it to be for a rental.

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There are always 1.000 ops AAA guys with good K:BB ratios who get to MLB and just can't hack it.  No such thing as a sure thing prospect in baseball.

Edited by blid
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17 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I am not making the case to keep Santander here, although I think there is merit to it if the FO believes that his production is likely to continue in combination with his clubhouse presence and leadership, but a Santander extension (or a similar signing) should have no impact on the ability to extend Henderson, Rutschman, or Holliday. If you assume a 3-4 year deal in the $15 million per year range, those years are cost controlled for Holliday and Henderson, so the salaries wouldn’t be astronomical in those years of the extension. Adley would be a bit higher, but he still has 3 years of arbitration, so his salaries would also be lower at the beginning of an extension. I don’t know if I’m being clear, but what I’m trying to say is the team should be able to accommodate a mid-level signing (Santander or otherwise if they think it makes sense) in addition to an extension or extensions of those players because those players will be paid lower salaries at the beginning of those deals, when the mid-level salary is on the book.

With respect to Burnes, I believe that it would have an impact, but I don’t see a scenario where Burnes stays in Baltimore unless he signs an extremely under-market deal, which I do not believe he will. Based off what Houston did, I do not believe that the front office believes a 7-10 year investment in pitching is a wise choice. I could also be very wrong about that, but it is my opinion until proven otherwise. 

Ok, for your first part about a Santander extension, it would absolutely impact our ability to extend our young stars. Since the time to extend them is now.

There is NO WAY we okay the arb game with them year after and then the turn around and sign with us in FA. Rarely, and I mean super rarely is that how this game is played. If they get within 3 years of FA (maybe not Adley but definitely the others) they are as good as gone when the time comes.

As far as Burnes goes, I would give him a market deal up to 7 years. Nothing beyond that. He is a rare and precious commodity. One of the best SPs in the game. There is no matchup/team where he is on the bump where we are at a competitive disadvantage. He’s that good! And IMO those guys are extremely VALUABLE in October.

In addition, while we have Grayson, we don’t know what Bradish will know be beyond the injury. And after that we have no top level SP talent through the entire org. If we don’t sign Burnes, we will need to sign or trade for a top notch starter to replace him.

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13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

With how valuable starting pitching is, what team would realistically trade a starter with 2 or less years of service time? Maybe the Mariners? And I think the return for one of their top young guys would need to be a Cowser or a Kjerstad.

Otherwise, you can seek to acquire the Burnes/Cease types who have 1-2 years of control left. The market has already been set for the cost of acquiring those kind of guys.

Trading Kjerstad is what we're talking about, in this scenario. For Kjerstad, I would expect a top young guy, either already in the bigs or close to it. If that's not out there, then my plan would change to keeping Kjerstad to replace Santander. 

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1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I think “adequate to possibly very good” is a suitable substitute for Mullins when need be. But few can go get a ball like Cedric Mullins. I hear Bradfield may be even better in that department. But time will tell.

I’m told by someone with very good scouting chops that Bradfield has more range than either Mullins or Jones in their primes.   

As to Cowser, it’s an offense vs. defense tradeoff.   But Cowser has looked very good defensively this year, so we might not be losing as much as we might have thought when he plays CF.
 

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13 minutes ago, deward said:

I wouldn't trade Kjerstad for a rental like Burnes. I'd be aiming for a top pitching prospect, or someone with less than two years of service time. If that kind of deal isn't out there, then he'd stay and Santander walks, in the alternate universe where they put me in charge.

Most teams looking to trade controlled pitching (are there any?) would be contenders looking for an established stud bat. Pretty rare to see prospect for prospect trades.

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