Colton Cowser 2024

[DirtyBird]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No he’s not. As was talked about today, he’s hitting the ball hard. He’s seeing a lot of pitches.  The results have been awful but the approach and quality of contact have not.

 

What is good about his approach? He’s a guess hitter. Maybe he’s identifying a few more balls out of the hand and able to lay off some pitches, but he is just guessing up there.

His expected numbers are right in line with his actual numbers, so there is nothing saying the results should be better than that are.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What is good about his approach? He’s a guess hitter. Maybe he’s identifying a few more balls out of the hand and able to lay off some pitches, but he is just guessing up there.

His expected numbers are right in line with his actual numbers, so there is nothing saying the results should be better than that are.

I agree he’s guessing a lot.  He guessed wrong on strike three in the 10th inning and took a pitch right down the middle.  Really poor approach there.  

On the season his expected and actual numbers are very close, but in recent weeks his expected numbers have been much better than the actual ones.  It was the opposite when he was hot.  

He’s still learning and it’s pretty painful to watch right now.  

 

[dystopia]

Easy to forget Cowser only has 2 and a half months of big league experience. He looked lost yesterday but he'll turn it around.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Easy to forget Cowser only has 2 and a half months of big league experience. He looked lost yesterday but he'll turn it around.

How did he look lost?  He took a bad pitch. Agree.  How else did he look lost?

[dystopia]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How did he look lost?  He took a bad pitch. Agree.  How else did he look lost?

I was just referring to his last AB. Sorry, I should have specified that. 

[DirtyBird]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How did he look lost?  He took a bad pitch. Agree.  How else did he look lost?

He guessed fastball on the first pitch and whiffed on a sider to get down 0-1 and set up the entire at bat.

I am pretty sure that he gets himself in a higher % of 2 strike situations than anyone else on the team, which is not good for a guy with poor bat to ball skills.

Edited May 14 by DirtyBird

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

He guessed fastball on the first pitch and whiffed on a sider to get down 0-1 and set up the entire at bat.

Lots of hitters look bad in an at bat or a game or a week. The incessant crying and whining about it and the over exaggeration over by impatient people who don’t seem to grasp the game or the idea that learning is taking place, is over the top.

In this “we must have it right now” world, the sports fan still stands out as the biggest idiot of them all.

 

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of hitters look bad in an at bat or a game or a week. The incessant crying and whining about it and the over exaggeration over by impatient people who don’t seem to grasp the game or the idea that learning is taking place, is over the top.

In this “we must have it right now” world, the sports fan still stands out as the biggest idiot of them all.

 

It is also an exaggeration to say that his approach is good right now.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

It is also an exaggeration to say that his approach is good right now.

Except it’s not.

He saw 15 pitches in 4 at bats yesterday. He is seeing 4.24 PPA overall, which is well above the league average.

  He went the other way again yesterday, which is something he has been doing a lot. He isn’t trying to be pull happy.

His chase % is very good and overall, his statcast numbers are still very good to excellent outside of K and WHIFF rate.

As was discussed yesterday, his quality of contact has been very good. He is hitting into some bad luck.

Like all players, he will look bad in any given at bat or game. It’s not exactly breaking news that baseball is hard. 

Yesterday they faced a pitcher who has been very good for this year outside of 1 bad start. The team had 3 hits and 2 were by one guy. 
 

 

 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How did he look lost?  He took a bad pitch. Agree.  How else did he look lost?

I didn’t make the remark, but that was a pretty poor at bat overall.  The first pitch he swung at was a low slider that wasn’t a strike, and if he’d put it in play it likely would have been an infield grounder.   Then that final pitch he was clearly guessing, and guessed wrong.  

Late and close, he’s hitting .095/.130/.238 with 9 K’s in 23 PA.

He’s got a .454 OPS in his last 17 games.

I don’t know that I’d say he’s “lost,” but he’s scuffling and pressing IMO.   
 

[RZNJ]

Cowser is talented.  He’s succeeded at every level.  He’s definitely got some flaws as a hitter.  The only way we’re going to figure out if he can figure it out is by playing him.  He’s probably played his way back into a platoon with Hays.   
 

A lot of our hitters are in pull mode, including Henderson.  Cowser has hit some balls to left center but when’s the last time he hit a line drive single to the LF.  Same question goes towards Mullins and Henderson.

Westburg, O’Hearn, and Mountcastle are using the whole field and, not coincidentally, having the better at bats.

 

[Sports Guy]

And btw, Cowser isn’t an everyday guy, at least not yet. The injury to Hays has forced him into the lineup more than he should be.

His defense has largely been very good, so he’s helping there but hopefully with Hays back, he will start hitting some and Cowser can sit a little more often, as he should be doing right now.

Maybe he develops into a 150+ games guy but I think he’s more of a 130-140 games guy right now.

[LGOrioles]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t make the remark, but that was a pretty poor at bat overall.  The first pitch he swung at was a low slider that wasn’t a strike, and if he’d put it in play it likely would have been an infield grounder.   Then that final pitch he was clearly guessing, and guessed wrong.  

Late and close, he’s hitting .095/.130/.238 with 9 K’s in 23 PA.

He’s got a .454 OPS in his last 17 games.

I don’t know that I’d say he’s “lost,” but he’s scuffling and pressing IMO.   
 

I agree that he’s been pretty bad in those high leverage situations. In Fangraphs clutch metric, he’s by far the worst hitter in the league. The difference between him and 2nd place (McNeil) is the same as the difference between McNeil and 55th place.

He has cut down on his K rate the past few weeks and has hit into some bad luck, but it definitely looks like he’s overthinking in some of these higher leverage situations. I’d say his AB’s are pretty good other than that, but they’ve been pretty poor in those more important situations. 

[DirtyBird]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except it’s not.

He saw 15 pitches in 4 at bats yesterday. He is seeing 4.24 PPA overall, which is well above the league average.

A big part of seeing more pitches is that he is whiffing or fouling off very hittable pitches in the middle of the zone. 

As I added to an earlier post, he is getting himself into a ton of two strike counts - about 60% of his plate appearances. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

A big part of seeing more pitches is that he is whiffing or fouling off very hittable pitches in the middle of the zone. 

So this comes down to what it means to be “lost” at the plate.  If you make good swing decisions but aren’t making good contact on hittable pitches, are you “lost?”   I don’t think everyone would agree on the answer.