Enrique Bradfield Jr. 2024

[jamalshw]

3 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I know we speak of Billy Hamilton as a bad player but he was getting on base 1-2 times more per week from being a very good player. His first 5 seasons were average 2.2 FWAR. The highest hope for Bradfield would be Kenny Lofton who had 14 seasons under 10 homeruns.

That's certainly a very high hope and obviously used as an extreme example given Lofton is (at least to me) a borderline HOF caliber player. But even Lofton showed some pop, you are right he had less than 10 HRs in a number of seasons, but his 162 game average is 10 HRs, but more importantly it is also 30 doubles and 9 triples. Bradfield is going to be a successful everyday player or not, based on his ability to get on base. He's the old-school proto-typical leadoff hitter. He's got a solid .352 OBP and if he were able to do that in the Majors, you can live with a lesser slugging and thus a lower OPS than you'd like given what else he brings (speed and defense). That said, he will need to show that he's a bit more of a threat for at least gap-to-gap doubles/triple power otherwise as he moves up and faces better pitching, those walks are going to evaporate as pitchers with better control are going to figure it's better to throw it down the middle given the likelihood of anything more than a single is low. 

Lofton had an average of 49 extra base hits per 162. Right now in his minor league career, he has 16 extra base hits in 84 games which works out to just over 30 over 162 against A-ball level pitching.

The good news is he has great skills in speed and defense which should at the very least make him a viable 5th OF on a MLB roster. The bad news, is there's certainly a way to go before he can be expected to be much more than that. 

I get what you are saying about Hamilton being a few more times on base per week from being a good player, but that's the thing with guys with Bradfield's skill set. There is a very fine line from being a good leadoff hitter and being a marginal 26th man on the bench and Terrance Gore type player. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What if he's not bunting because he's trying to develop the rest of his offensive profile?  Should we hold that against him? 

I'd imagine he'd be able to get a bunch of cheapy singles on bunts in A+ ball.  But we already know he has that skill.  Hey EBJ, drop a bunt down each week, so you reach an artificial milestone, so people can sleep better at night because of your box score line.  

The minors is for development.  You guys say you want a High School draftee, but Geez... is everyone ready for that learning curve?  We've been really spoiled recently.  

Whoa!!

Nobody with any sense is giving up on Bradfield.   We’re just a little disappointed in his performance to date, that’s all.  As I pointed out, he’s hit well the last 10 games (albeit with no XBH).  Hopefully he continues to hit better and at some point gets promoted to Bowie.   

Bradfield was drafted no. 17 out of college.  Let’s look at how other college guys in the 11-30 range are doing:

11. Nolan Schanuel: in the majors all year, hitting .240/.317/.353

12. Tommy Troy: hurt much of the year, hitting .206/.284/.274 in 74 PA in A+.

13.  Matt Shaw: in AA all year, hitting .247/.356/.421.

14. Kyle Teel: in AA all year, hitting .303/.390/.452.

15. Jacob Gonzalez: hit .273/.364/.399 in 36 games at A+, now .260/.328/.353 in AA.

18. Brock Wilken: in AA all year, hitting .236/.320/.406

19. Brayden Taylor, hitting .285/.399/.539 in A+.

20. Chase Davis, hitting .217/.338/.389 in low A.

28. Brice Matthews, hit .321/.423/.580 In A+, now hitting .184/.310/.406 in 58 PA in AA.

So of those 9 (5 drafted before Bradfield and 4 after) 4 started the year in AA or higher, while another 2 have been promoted to AA.  One is dominating A+ and likely to get promoted very soon.  One is in A+ with worse numbers than Bradfield, but missed nearly two months with injuries.   One started the year in low A and is still there.

I look at all that, and past performance of college guys we’ve drafted lower than 17 since Elias arrived, and feel that Bradfield’s season so far is a mild disappointment, even though you do need to factor in his base running and defense and not just look at OPS.   Probably the biggest subjective factor is he’s still in A+.  Guys like Norby, Fabian, Stowers and Ortiz were in AA at a similar stage of their development, despite being drafted lower than Bradfield. (I should mention that Stowers and Ortiz were slightly different because they were drafted before the COVID year, so their first full year in the minors was the second year after they were drafted.)  So, the fact that Bradfield is still at A+ tells you the Orioles don’t think his defense and baserunning is enough to boost him up a level yet, unlike these other guys (and Bradfield’s contemporary Matthew Etzel).   That’s nothing to panic about, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little disappointed at this stage.

[sportsfan8703]

53 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Why do you assume he’s not already dropping down multiple bunts per week?

Here's the thing that cracks me up sometimes about this board... just because someone offers a possible different take on something, and someone can poke holes in that particular take, does it change the reality of the situation.  

My take being... EBJ came to us from a very well respected/coach powerhouse program.  Bunting for hits in his game.  Since we're trying to develop EBJ has a hitter, and tap into some of that potential, then maybe he isn't dropping down a bunch of cheapy bunt singles on A+ ball defenders to artificially inflate his stat line.  He has that tool in his game.  The point of the minors is to develop.  Not to put up an artificial milestone number.  

At the end of the day... it's just a thought I had.  There's a ton of info out there on the web, and people are more accessible these days.  I'm sure someone could ask someone that actually watches the game and find out if EBJ bunts and what the frequency is.  

We can quickly dismiss the 44/52 stolen bases as A+ catchers cant throw well.  Well... what if he was challenging A+ defenders with bunts?  Would we feel differently if he did that and was at an .800 OPS?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Here's the thing that cracks me up sometimes about this board... just because someone offers a possible different take on something, and someone can poke holes in that particular take, does it change the reality of the situation.  

My take being... EBJ came to us from a very well respected/coach powerhouse program.  Bunting for hits in his game.  Since we're trying to develop EBJ has a hitter, and tap into some of that potential, then maybe he isn't dropping down a bunch of cheapy bunt singles on A+ ball defenders to artificially inflate his stat line.  He has that tool in his game.  The point of the minors is to develop.  Not to put up an artificial milestone number.  

At the end of the day... it's just a thought I had.  There's a ton of info out there on the web, and people are more accessible these days.  I'm sure someone could ask someone that actually watches the game and find out if EBJ bunts and what the frequency is.  

We can quickly dismiss the 44/52 stolen bases as A+ catchers cant throw well.  Well... what if he was challenging A+ defenders with bunts?  Would we feel differently if he did that and was at an .800 OPS?

I looked to see if Fangraphs have bunted ball data for Bradfield, but they don’t.  So, there’s no way to know if your hypothesis is correct.   I certainly accept that in the minors, players often are “working on stuff” rather than trying to maximize their current day stat line.  Our poster @733baseballattends all the Aberdeen home games, so maybe he has some intel on how often Bradfield bunts.  

[Go_Os]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, you’re right that OPS doesn’t measure overall value or even fully measure offensive value.  Let’s just get that out of the way and concede you’re right about that.   That said:

1.  A guy with a .718 OPS in A+ isn’t likely to crack .700 in the majors, forget about .800.

2.  In situations with runners on base, a single and a stolen base are not as good as a double.  

3.  The value of a stolen base has to be weighed against the cost of caught stealings.  The break even point varies a bit with the offensive environment but is typically close to 70%.   So Bradfield’s 44/53 is about as valuable as a guy who stole 7 bases without getting caught.   

4.  We have almost no information on how good Bradfield’s defense has been.  When he was drafted, I was told by a knowledgeable source that he should be rangier than either Adam Jones or Cedric Mullins in their primes.   Is that proving to be the case at the minor league level?   I have no idea.   

Bottom line, I’m not satisfied with .278/.352/.366 and 44/53 SB.  I don’t think Bradfield needs to be at .800+,  but .718 isn’t good enough.   And, whatever the Orioles’ internal metrics might be, he hasn’t been promoted yet, so that tells you they think he’s got work to do at the high A level. 
 

Understood, but generally speaking Aberdeen is a tough place to hit.

 

Gunnar had a .775 OPS there

Cowser .795

Westburg .858

Mullins .708

 

[Sports Guy]

He should get at least 100 AA at bats this year.

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Here's the thing that cracks me up sometimes about this board... just because someone offers a possible different take on something, and someone can poke holes in that particular take, does it change the reality of the situation.  

My take being... EBJ came to us from a very well respected/coach powerhouse program.  Bunting for hits in his game.  Since we're trying to develop EBJ has a hitter, and tap into some of that potential, then maybe he isn't dropping down a bunch of cheapy bunt singles on A+ ball defenders to artificially inflate his stat line.  He has that tool in his game.  The point of the minors is to develop.  Not to put up an artificial milestone number.  

At the end of the day... it's just a thought I had.  There's a ton of info out there on the web, and people are more accessible these days.  I'm sure someone could ask someone that actually watches the game and find out if EBJ bunts and what the frequency is.  

We can quickly dismiss the 44/52 stolen bases as A+ catchers cant throw well.  Well... what if he was challenging A+ defenders with bunts?  Would we feel differently if he did that and was at an .800 OPS?

Here’s what cracks me up.  You come up with a theory that Bradfield could have an .800 OPS if he bunted more without knowing how often he bunts now AND assuming he can get bunt base hits at will in A+.    

[733baseball]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I looked to see if Fangraphs have bunted ball data for Bradfield, but they don’t.  So, there’s no way to know if your hypothesis is correct.   I certainly accept that in the minors, players often are “working on stuff” rather than trying to maximize their current day stat line.  Our poster @733baseballattends all the Aberdeen home games, so maybe he has some intel on how often Bradfield bunts.  

My viewpoint is a little slanted because there's entire games on occasion where *everyone* tries to bunt. Almost the entire team. So I'm never really sure when it's a gameplan versus someone honestly trying to get on base.

[sportsfan8703]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Here’s what cracks me up.  You come up with a theory that Bradfield could have an .800 OPS if he bunted more without knowing how often he bunts now AND assuming he can get bunt base hits at will in A+.    

I’m pretty confident he could creep his OPS up to the desired .800 milestone if he challenged A+ hitters with bunts each game. 

That’s not development though. 

So why should we penalize a speed/defense guy with an artificial milestone of .800, when we know OPS is made up 50% of the "S" "Slugging" in OPS.  

Maybe OPS isn't the best tool to evaluate EBJ's success right now?  Can we agree on that?  We drafted him knowing we had to tap into the power.  That was known.  We can't say he's struggling after a half season of trying that.  

Edited July 11 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m pretty confident he could creep his OPS up to the desired .800 milestone if he challenged A+ hitters with bunts each game. 

I’m pretty confident he couldn’t.  First of all, @733baseball, who attends all Aberdeen home games, already reported that everyone on the team bunts like crazy.   Second, it would take a ton of additional successful bunts to raise his OPS by 80 points.  And, the more you bunt, the harder it is to be successful.   

All that’s kind of beside the point.  The Orioles haven’t yet deemed Bradfield worthy of promotion, and they know exactly what he’s working on and what he needs to do to bump him up.
 

[733baseball]

Yeah, the entire team aside from Creed Willems attempts to bunt for hits and is generally fast. They lead ALL of minor league baseball in stolen bases. 

Edited July 11 by 733baseball

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m pretty confident he could creep his OPS up to the desired .800 milestone if he challenged A+ hitters with bunts each game. 

That’s not development though. 

So why should we penalize a speed/defense guy with an artificial milestone of .800, when we know OPS is made up 50% of the "S" "Slugging" in OPS.  

Maybe OPS isn't the best tool to evaluate EBJ's success right now?  Can we agree on that?  We drafted him knowing we had to tap into the power.  That was known.  We can't say he's struggling after a half season of trying that.  

Maybe batting average and on base percentage would be good?

Edited July 11 by RZNJ

[sportsfan8703]

That #51 sure can bunt.  

I don't know why this is such a divisive issue?  You take a dude that is whole game is built around speed, then you drop him in pro ball, and say focus more on swinging away.  Then wonder why he's "struggling".   

I have no skin in the game.  Just pointing out that he's not struggling.  Just developing.  

If the goal is to ship him off in a trade for SP, then I'm all for that.  I want a WS as much as anyone.  

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That #51 sure can bunt.  

I don't know why this is such a divisive issue?  You take a dude that is whole game is built around speed, then you drop him in pro ball, and say focus more on swinging away.  Then wonder why he's "struggling".   

I have no skin in the game.  Just pointing out that he's not struggling.  Just developing.  

If the goal is to ship him off in a trade for SP, then I'm all for that.  I want a WS as much as anyone.  

Why do you insist that he was told to swing away and not bunt as much as he wants to?    We have one guy who goes to the games who says many of the players bunt a lot.   Yet you keep insisting that his numbers aren't as good as they could be because he's not bunting.

It's not divisive.   You're the only one spouting this narrative. 

[Frobby]

Out of the lineup for the second day in a row.  Banged up?