I want Matusz in the rotation....

[NoVaO]

Good post. I think it's worth noting that Tillman only logged around 10 IP in the sixth, while he was 25 - 30 IP in the 1st through 4th and 20 IP in the 5th. The only reason I bring it up is HR rate would balloon with just 1 HR. His K-rate is the best in the 6th, but again we're talking about around 100 - 200% greater data set in the other five innings. Point taken, but I think the stats are inconclusive given the impact one good or poor outing could have in these size data sets.

What I enjoyed most about Tillman last year was he started to reign in his CB. Out west, he had trouble getting it over at all. He made big strides last year. Still, I don't think it's quite where Arrieta is with his slider (and Arrieta could stand to improve as well). I think the IP/start stat is important, and averaging 3/4 fewer innings per start puts Tillman slightly behind Arrieta for me (though I understand why you and Chris disagree).

For me: Matusz -> Arrieta -> Tillman with the gap between Arrieta and Tillman very small, and the gap between Matusz and Arrieta a fair amount larger.

I'll counter the 6th inning arguments by pointing out that his 5th inning was probably his best all around inning, but good points all around especially on the HR-rate.

I want to see a little more of Tillman so I can better gauge his stuff/command/feel, but until then, we'll probably just be running around in circles on this.

[Stotle]

I'll counter the 6th inning arguments by pointing out that his 5th inning was probably his best all around inning, but good points all around especially on the HR-rate.

I want to see a little more of Tillman so I can better gauge his stuff/command/feel, but until then, we'll probably just be running around in circles on this.

Agreed. And agreed the 5th was clearly his best inning last year. I'd point to his career numbers to increase the data size, but I can't in good conscience make that argument since his stuff has improved a great deal and he was in a more hitter-friendly park last year (I think -- don't recall the conversions).

Anyway, I think we all know where each other stand. Thanks for imparting

[TJ Wrangler]

#2 CEILING! I'm going Hall of Famer and why wouldn't I. He has four plus pitches, all breaking balls, there has never been anything like him that I know of. I cannot believe you would not in the least lean in favor of Matusz versus some random rating system. If everyone was so sure that this rating system and they had him pegged to be a Hall of Famer then why did he go 10th overall, why did we pass on him; IMO, these "scouts" are about as good as weathermen. Either way, I will be here through his career and we can debate it until we know, but I will stand by him.

All of this fountain of knowledge told us to take Rowell:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/William-Rowell.shtml

Instead of Lincecum:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Tim-Lincecum.shtml

Draft breakdown:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2006/

I'm not sure what exactly you are trying to say here, but I'm guessing your point was that you think Matusz has a HOF ceiling and you think I should give him more benefit of the doubt because you think he exceeds what is laid out in the traditional #1-5 starter system?

I think you're jumping the gun a little early on Matusz. Wait and see how he fares before you anoint him a hall of famer. At least Lincecum has dominated the MLB already, granted it was one season. The thing with Lincecum is that his ceiling was always regarded as sky high, and injury risks due to misinformed opinions about mechanics are what made him slip. Matusz was always thought of as more likely to be a #2 starter than a #1 starter.

[sdeclue]

I'd like to see Matusz with the club as well, though I'd be fine if they started him in Bowie for some seasoning. Given what we've seen, putting him in Frederick would be a waste of time.

http://www.examiner.com/x-1089-Baltimore-Sports-Examiner~y2009m3d8-Young-pitchers-produce-strong-outings

[Hank Scorpio]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090306&content_id=3930824&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal&partnerId=rss_bal

I agree they'd be wasting Matusz' time in Frederick, but I'd bet that's where he's headed.

Wieters was obviously advanced for Frederick as well.

I also think that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. Our best bet is to be patient. I don't think we'll regret it.

[Moose Milligan]

I also think that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting the same result. Our best bet is to be patient. I don't think we'll regret it.

So insanity was you repeating the third grade over and over?

Sorry Slappy, couldn't resist.

[Hank Scorpio]

So insanity was you repeating the third grade over and over?

Sorry Slappy, couldn't resist.

Oh, don't be mad because you got beat up often in the 3rd grade.

Let it go, Slappy. It's in the distant past.

[jdouble777]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090306&content_id=3930824&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal&partnerId=rss_bal

I agree they'd be wasting Matusz' time in Frederick, but I'd bet that's where he's headed.

Wieters was obviously advanced for Frederick as well.

I also think that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting the same result. Our best bet is to be patient. I don't think we'll regret it.

If you are quoting Einstein I think it is expecting a different result.

Weiters should not have started in Frederick, Matusz should not either, Weiters has not even been challenged...that does not bode well for the fact he is only going to get a one month taste of something remotely close to the real thing before diving right in. The same goes for Matusz, giving the fact that he will be in the majors by September or in the very least start out in the bigs next year.

[Hank Scorpio]

If you are quoting Einstein I think it is expecting a different result.

Weiters should not have started in Frederick, Matusz should not either, Weiters has not even been challenged...that does not bode well for the fact he is only going to get a one month taste of something remotely close to the real thing before diving right in. The same goes for Matusz, giving the fact that he will be in the majors by September or in the very least start out in the bigs next year.

Hahaha right, I'm hungover, it happens.

[jdouble777]

Hahaha right, I'm hungover, it happens.

:clap3:

So Weiters is officially that guy, who every time there is a huge hit and it is do or die you just send in Weiters....

http://masnsports.com/2009/03/wieters-breaks-up-the-no-no.html

http://masnsports.com/2009/03/wieters-comes-through-again.html

http://masnsports.com/2009/03/getting-another-opinion-on-wie.html

Premature or not, we are Orioles fans, and he is the number one prospect in baseball, so I would say it is given...

:clap3: