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Anthony Santander 2024


DirtyBird

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because contracts extending into the 30's of players with similar profiles tend toward suboptimal results.

Ok but man this team can't hit for a lick now I would hate to see  it with one of their best hitters gone. All I know they better spend some money this year. You left Santa and Burnes go they better spend on other players then. 

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1 minute ago, Baseball fandom said:

Ok but man this team can't hit for a lick now I would hate to see  it with one of their best hitters gone. All I know they better spend some money this year. You left Santa and Burnes go they better spend on other players then. 

Were you in favor of a big contract for him entering the season?

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4 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

SLAMtander walks it off with HR #42 and, boy, did we ever need that.

I'm really gonna miss him when he walks this winter, but he has definitely earned his big money free agent deal and I hope he gets every last penny he can from whoever wins the impending bidding war for his services.

We need to sign him. We don't need to be so cheap since we need a slugger!!!

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54 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree it's unlikely but not completely far fetched. I don't think he is a lock to get more than $20M in AAV, so he could decide to take it and then hit FA if he has a good or even better year. His talent level is in a similar range as the players who have accepted: Joc Pederson, Jose Abreu, Wieters etc.

He's coming off a career year, he's about to turn 30, and he's arguably the #2 hitter after Juan Soto in this year's free agent class, AND basically everybody is desperate for offense right now. He will never have a better opportunity to cash in and he will 100% take advantage of that opportunity.

He will decline the QO without a moment's hesitation or second thought. 

12 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

Why shouldn't they not sign him? 

Mark Trumbo

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6 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

We need to sign him. We don't need to be so cheap since we need a slugger!!!

Why do we have to?  What will happen if we don’t?

This is the same thing people have said about Burnes…we must re-sign him. Why? Did Milwaukee fall off?

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Why do we have to?  What will happen if we don’t?

This is the same thing people have said about Burnes…we must re-sign him. Why? Did Milwaukee fall off?

Where would we be this year without Burnes and Santa? Next year we be without them, and we will be a weaker team!!!

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7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

His production this year isn't out of line with what he's done the last two years.

His 2024 OPS+ is 11 points higher than his previous full season career high.

Whether that's a fluke, a new gear, or a contract year mirage is up to the individual to decide.

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1 minute ago, Pickles said:

His production this year isn't out of line with what he's done the last two years.

It’s how best season by a pretty solid margin.  I’d agree it’s bit wildly out of line, but it’s a significant step forward for him.  

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9 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Where would we be this year without Burnes and Santa? Next year we be without them, and we will be a weaker team!!!

How do you know that?  We didn’t have Burnes last year and we were better. 
 

Acting as if 2025 will be the same as 2024 is illogical.

There is a ton of growth that can happen. Lots of other acquisitions can occur. 
 

This idea that if you lose a good player that you can’t replace him is literally proven wrong every year.

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  • Posts

    • But that is not what you said. You said he’s a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier. Thus, you were stating he is close to as bad a fielder as Trumbo was, which is not correct. Generally speaking, no player makes up the loss of offensive value with defensive value as the age. It is usually one of the first things to go. I was not making any sort of argument that he was going to make up declining offense with defense, just pointing out that you made a preposterous statement.
    • At least relative to the rest of the league Santander has an interesting profile because he is comfortably above-average at making contact; his whiff rates are much better than Trumbo's so he's not really as much of a TTO player as you would think.  This gives him hope that he will age a little bit better than someone like Trumbo.  Though he's still got a good shot of being out of the league in 3 years.
    • It's not the money, it's the years.  I wouldn't mind signing him for a year or two, even at what I'd consider to be stupid money.  But what I DON'T agree with is signing him for any more than 2-3 years as I don't think he's going to age well.  And I expect him to get more than 3 years from someone, so I'm a hard pass.  Can we afford him?  Money wise, sure.  But I don't want to see us stuck with him 4-5 years down the road when his skillset has greatly diminished, but he's still playing every day because we owe him a lot of money and a lot of loyalty.  Let some other club take that risk, get the QO pick and move on.  
    • Santander does exactly ONE thing very well: Hit HRs He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't get on base, he's a very slow runner, and he is a very poor defender. If he stops hitting HRs so often, his value completely evaporates and his contract basically becomes dead money, and the Orioles cannot afford to eat large amounts of dead money like the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees of the world. I am simply using Trumbo, whose basic tool kit is very similar to Santander's, as a fairly recent, Orioles-related cautionary tale. Trumbo had his big walk year with the Orioles at age 30 and instead of doing the smart, obvious thing and taking the free draft pick, we gave him a big money extension that everyone except the FO knew was probably going to end poorly. Baseball Savant has Santander in the 22nd percentile in terms of overall fielding value. However you want to slice it, he isn't going to make up any lost value from declining offense with his defense. If his ability to slug goes south, the whole contract goes with it, because he has no other tools to make up for that with.
    • Santander is -2 OAA this year. He’s averagish to below average. There but there are much worse defensive right fielders such as Adolis Garcia and Castellanos -9, Lane Thomas and Renfroe -8, and Soto -4. Acuna and Tatis are also -2 OAA.  In 2016, Mark Trumbo was -15 OAA. They’re not even in the same universe.
    • Anthony Santander (age 27-29): .245 / .317 / .477 / .794    124 OPS+   9.0 rWAR Mark Trumbo (age 27-29): .244 / .299 / .443 / .742   105 OPS+  2.6 rWAR Is it really very meaningful that Trumbo was the better player when they were significantly younger? 29-year-old Santander is a better player by miles than Trumbo at the same age, and he has been for years. I think that’s what matters most to how you’d project them over the next few years.
    • I love Tony and I honestly think we are gonna miss his veteran leadership as much as anything. I’m very happy we have him for this year. But I do think he’d be a bad long term investment. 
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