Adley Rutschman 2024

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, turtlebowl said:

It actually does make sense.  I think we have all seen Adley shorten up his swing and punch the ball into the outfield.  He actually does this a lot right handed.  That to me is why the bat speed thing is a little misleading.  Do you think Adley showed off in the HR derby last year with a swing that is that slow?  He was getting meat balls and letting it fly.  The problem is when he takes a similar approach in games he doesn't barrel the ball up nearly enough which leads to weak contact.

In my humble opinion he gets caught between wanting to be a bat control guy and spread the ball around the whole field or take the Santander approach and swing as hard as you can in case you hit it.  That in between is the worst place to be because you can get lost there and I think that is where Adley is.  

The league has always played him as a dead pull hitter.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

His first two years his framing graded very strong. This is the first year he has been below average. I expect that to normalize. Possible he got a reputation for framing and the umps have overcorrected.

I agree the arm isn't great but you are ignoring his blocking and pop time, which are elite.

I agree with your last sentence, but that is more due to the age and position: I would rather extend a 28 yo SS than a 30 yo C. 

His pop time is elite for 15U & under (avg. pop time for 2028 class is 2.3….2.11 for 2025 class)

His pop time is very average (55th percentile) for MLB at 1.96.  And to me it seems to be getting slower(2.07 last night on an easy pitch to throw on).  His transfer is slow and he has a weak and inaccurate arm.  
 

He’s an elite blocker. His framing is well below average at 21st percentile.  He was 83rd & 84th percentile on 2023 & 2024.

All that said, he’s my favorite player and it sucks to see him struggling. 
 

He’s got some work to do to get back to where he was 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

His pop time is elite for 15U & under (avg. pop time for 2028 class is 2.3….2.11 for 2025 class)

His pop time is very average (55th percentile) for MLB at 1.96.  And to me it seems to be getting slower(2.07 last night on an easy pitch to throw on).  His transfer is slow and he has a weak and inaccurate arm.  
 

He’s an elite blocker. His framing is well below average at 21st percentile.  He was 83rd & 84th percentile on 2023 & 2024.

All that said, he’s my favorite player and it sucks to see him struggling. 
 

He’s got some work to do to get back to where he was 

You just going to keep mentioning that line about elite for 15U once a day until someone laughs?

[turtlebowl]

37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The league has always played him as a dead pull hitter.

I think Adley has become more of a pull hitter this season just by watching which again goes to my theory that he is trying to hit for more power.  

All I can say is he is either really hurt or his batting approach has changed so drastically that he has put himself into a huge funk (plus being out of shape doesn't help). 

Earlier this season he was hitting the ball into gaps and at times made it look easy.  I thought he could have a year where he was battling for the batting title. Look at his swing now and compare it to late April and early May and they are so different.  Looks like he is pulling off everything trying to create power.  Again it could be an injury but something happened and it has been pretty drastic in not a good way.

[turtlebowl]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

His pop time is elite for 15U & under (avg. pop time for 2028 class is 2.3….2.11 for 2025 class)

His pop time is very average (55th percentile) for MLB at 1.96.  And to me it seems to be getting slower(2.07 last night on an easy pitch to throw on).  His transfer is slow and he has a weak and inaccurate arm.  
 

He’s an elite blocker. His framing is well below average at 21st percentile.  He was 83rd & 84th percentile on 2023 & 2024.

All that said, he’s my favorite player and it sucks to see him struggling. 
 

He’s got some work to do to get back to where he was 

I am almost hoping his downward spiral is more due to an injury and not an early downturn of his career.  At this point do we question his dedication to the game?  Has anyone ever mentioned anything regarding a lack of work ethic?  I have never heard anybody say anything negative but I also have never heard anyone rave about it either so not sure what that means.

I am a huge fan like you and many others so lets hope this stretch will be a distant memory and we will all be laughing about questioning his ability and work ethic.

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You just going to keep mentioning that line about elite for 15U once a day until someone laughs?

I mentioned it once.  Last night during the game thread in jest. (I actually said 14U) 
 

Today I mentioned it, after looking it up, with data for context.  I decided 14u (avg 2.45) was a little low, so I bumped it up a year to 15u. 

I guess we will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  

 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

I am almost hoping his downward spiral is more due to an injury and not an early downturn of his career.  At this point do we question his dedication to the game?  Has anyone ever mentioned anything regarding a lack of work ethic?  I have never heard anybody say anything negative but I also have never heard anyone rave about it either so not sure what that means.

I am a huge fan like you and many others so lets hope this stretch will be a distant memory and we will all be laughing about questioning his ability and work ethic.

No.  I’ve only heard glowing reports about his work ethic. 

I still think he’s just really banged up. I bet we get some info this winter.  

[Aristotelian]

32 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

His pop time is elite for 15U & under (avg. pop time for 2028 class is 2.3….2.11 for 2025 class)

His pop time is very average (55th percentile) for MLB at 1.96.  And to me it seems to be getting slower(2.07 last night on an easy pitch to throw on).  His transfer is slow and he has a weak and inaccurate arm.  
 

He’s an elite blocker. His framing is well below average at 21st percentile.  He was 83rd & 84th percentile on 2023 & 2024.

All that said, he’s my favorite player and it sucks to see him struggling. 
 

He’s got some work to do to get back to where he was 

He was in the 80s last year and the year before, for MLB.

[emmett16]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He was in the 80s last year and the year before, for MLB.

The league got better.  He was 1.91, 1.93, and 1.96 (this year). 

[LGOrioles]

It really can’t be overstated how bad he has been this year, compared to expectations. Last year, the Orioles were 6th in team catching WAR. In 2022, they were 10th (because Chrinos and Bemboom combined for -1.6 WAR). This year, they are 21st in team catching WAR.

Adley went from 3rd in WAR (in games he was catching) in both 2022 and 2023, to all the way down to 20th this season. Some of the names above him include Alejandro Kirk, Jake Rogers, Carson Kelly, Kyle Higashioka, and Freddy Fermin (all doing so with considerably less playing time). From what I could tell, factoring in PA’s, he would fall to around 26th among all semi-regular catchers in WAR/600 PA’s. 

He was never a superstar but we was clearly a top 3 catcher in the sport and now he’s performed like one of the worst starting catchers in the league. That is a massive difference. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

It really can’t be overstated how bad he has been this year, compared to expectations. Last year, the Orioles were 6th in team catching WAR. In 2022, they were 10th (because Chrinos and Bemboom combined for -1.6 WAR). This year, they are 21st in team catching WAR.

Adley went from 3rd in WAR (in games he was catching) in both 2022 and 2023, to all the way down to 20th this season. Some of the names above him include Alejandro Kirk, Jake Rogers, Carson Kelly, Kyle Higashioka, and Freddy Fermin (all doing so with considerably less playing time). From what I could tell, factoring in PA’s, he would fall to around 26th among all semi-regular catchers in WAR/600 PA’s. 

He was never a superstar but we was clearly a top 3 catcher in the sport and now he’s performed like one of the worst starting catchers in the league. That is a massive difference. 

Last year, many of us thought he would be a 7-8 win guy in 2023.

He is going to be that for 2023 and 2024 combined.

Just extremely disappointing.  I’m guessing he is hurt though.

[LGOrioles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Last year, many of us thought he would be a 7-8 win guy in 2023.

He is going to be that for 2023 and 2024 combined.

Just extremely disappointing.  I’m guessing he is hurt though.

It’s crazy because he pretty much was at a 7 WAR/600 PA pace his rookie season, even with the very slow start. And I think the results last year were a bit disappointing offensively, but his expected numbers were way up (79th to 93rd percentile in xwOBA), which was a good sign. Fangraohs thought his defense regressed big time but Statcast said it was pretty close.

This year has just been a mess all around. His defense has fallen off a cliff, his chase rate went from 80th percentile to 50th percentile, his xwOBA is the lowest of his career, and his wRC+ is by far the lowest of his career. Many people liked the supposed sell out for more power early in the year because the results were there, even if the expected outcomes painted a different picture. That change clearly didn’t work as his xISO and actual ISO are both also the lowest of his career.

The injuries for the team this season have sucked and probably been the biggest negative so far. Maybe Adley is injured/playing through something too, but if he’s not, his regression is by far the most disappointing part of the season. 

[OriolesMagic83]

As someone who has dealt w/ back pain for a long time, I'm wondering if the strain on his back is why Adley has hit so poorly when playing catcher this year.  Just saying it's a possible reason.  The catcher position and what a catcher has to do seems like it would aggravate any back pain/problems Adley has.  I'm wondering if some kind of back surgery is in Adley's offseason schedule?

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

It really can’t be overstated how bad he has been this year, compared to expectations. Last year, the Orioles were 6th in team catching WAR. In 2022, they were 10th (because Chrinos and Bemboom combined for -1.6 WAR). This year, they are 21st in team catching WAR.

Adley went from 3rd in WAR (in games he was catching) in both 2022 and 2023, to all the way down to 20th this season. Some of the names above him include Alejandro Kirk, Jake Rogers, Carson Kelly, Kyle Higashioka, and Freddy Fermin (all doing so with considerably less playing time). From what I could tell, factoring in PA’s, he would fall to around 26th among all semi-regular catchers in WAR/600 PA’s. 

He was never a superstar but we was clearly a top 3 catcher in the sport and now he’s performed like one of the worst starting catchers in the league. That is a massive difference. 

What's crazier is that through May or so he looked like he might be on track for a career year. He has really dropped off although it's really just one super bad month.

[LGOrioles]

32 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What's crazier is that through May or so he looked like he might be on track for a career year. He has really dropped off although it's really just one super bad month.

August hasn’t been quite as bad but it is still the 4th worst month of his career by wRC+. He’s had the worst month of his career (July) and the 4th worst month of his career (August) in back to back months. One or two more unproductive AB’s from him and August will quickly become the 3rd worst month of his career.