Tracking the Orioles' position players by 27-game segments

[Frobby]

Some of you will recall the thread I did last year tracking the Orioles' position players by 18-game segments.   I'm doing something similar this year, but I decided that 18-game segments were a bit too short, so I'm using 27-game segments this year, dividing the season into sixths.  The data I'm tracking appears on the chart below:

Name	PA	rWAR	Rdrs	OPS	fWAR	OAA	wOBA	xwOBA
Rutschman	119	1.2	2	0.816	0.9	1.2	0.361	0.383
Mountcastle	103	1.1	1	0.906	0.6	-3	0.393	0.395
Henderson	124	1.8	0	0.959	1.9	2	0.408	0.389
Westburg	101	1.4	1	0.903	1.3	1	0.394	0.422
Cowser	80	1.0	0	1.037	1.4	3	0.439	0.390
Mullins	100	0.7	1	0.717	0.7	2	0.311	0.304
Santander	113	0.3	0	0.728	0.3	1	0.319	0.302
O'Hearn	71	0.7	0	0.929	0.7	0	0.403	0.502
Hays	50	-0.8	-1	0.311	-0.7	-1	0.149	0.286
Urias	44	-0.1	0	0.484	-0.3	-1	0.215	0.214
McCann	43	0.0	-1	0.651	0.0	-0.3	0.284	0.323
Mateo	39	0.3	0	0.733	0.3	-1	0.328	0.292
Holliday	36	-0.5	-1	0.170	-0.3	3	0.089	0.155
Kjerstad	5	-0.1	0	0.000	-0.1	0	0.000	0.057
McKenna	1	0.1	0	2.000	0.0	0	1.000	0.281

It was quite a first segment, with five players (Henderson, Westburg, Rutschman, Mountcastle and Cowser) tracking at 1.0 rWAR or better for the segment, and three (Henderson, Cowser, Westburg) tracking at 1.0 fWAR or better.   Four players (Hays, Holliday, Urias, Kjerstad) were in negative territory, but the positives way outweigh the negatives.  Not coincidentally, the O's went 17-10 during the segment.

Looking at wOBA vs. xwOBA, the ridiculous stat is that even at .403 wOBA (3rd best on the team), Ryan O'Hearn is underperforming his xwOBA by 99 points.   He's just been hitting the ball on the nose at a ridiculous rate.

On defense, there are some major disagreements between Rdrs (which feeds into rWAR) and OAA (which feeds into fWAR).  Rdrs rates Mountcastle at +1 while OAA has him at -3; Holliday is at -1 Rdrs and +3 OAA; and Cowser is at 0 Rdrs and +3 OAA.   I must say, my "eye test" is more in agreement with Rdrs than OAA in all three cases.  (Note: there is no OAA for catchers, so I'm using Fangraphs' overall defense metric there for Rutschman and McCann.)

It will be interesting to follow the ups and downs of the players as the season progresses.

 

Edited April 30 by Frobby

[interloper]

You have to love how Mounty has played so far. Quietly producing amidst the more hyped players, and he's on track for a gold glove IMO. It's Mountcastle, so things could change quickly, but it's been a pleasure to watch him.

Santander needs to figure something out. Mullins is a bit of an issue as well, but he's overall a positive player due to his defense. 

[Warehouse]

O’Hearn’s chase rate was 30% each year from 2021-2023 and has been 18% this year.  He’s hitting the ball harder and more in the air.  His xOPS is 1.197 per statcast (sum of xOBP and xSLG from statcast search).  He has the highest xwOBA and xOPS among players with at least 10 PAs this year.

I do think it’s fair to wonder whether O’Hearn should get more chances vs lefties.
 

 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Warehouse said:

O’Hearn’s chase rate was 30% each year from 2021-2023 and has been 18% this year.  He’s hitting the ball harder and more in the air.  His xOPS is 1.197 per statcast (sum of xOBP and xSLG from statcast search).  He has the highest xwOBA and xOPS among players with at least 10 PAs this year.

I do think it’s fair to wonder whether O’Hearn should get more chances vs lefties.
 

 

Hyde has been slowwwwly leaving him in there more against lefty relievers late in games. We saw it last night and maybe a couple other times this season. I mean when your PH options are McKenna, Mateo, Urias, and the backup catcher, you might as well leave O'Hearn in there to see if he runs into one. 

[waroriole]

The counting stats are fun so far with this group. 6 guys on pace for 100+ RBI. Gunnar on pace for 138. 8 guys on pace for 24+ HR. Gunnar on pace for 60. Gunnar is also on pace for 150 runs scored. 

[ChosenOne21]

24 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hyde has been slowwwwly leaving him in there more against lefty relievers late in games. We saw it last night and maybe a couple other times this season. I mean when your PH options are McKenna, Mateo, Urias, and the backup catcher, you might as well leave O'Hearn in there to see if he runs into one. 

This is interesting to me because I remember last year I looked at O'Hearn's numbers vs. LHP and found that he actually hit LH starters fine for his career but was basically helpless against LH relievers. Sample sizes were of course small, but not totally miniscule.

[G54377]

Ryan Mckenna 2.000 OPS 

[sportsfan8703]

It really sheds light on just how good of a start O’Hearn is off too. It’s going to be tough to find big Heston ABs until next season when Santa leaves.

As expected the 12th and 13th position player spots were the only real negatives. We need more production from whoever is the 9th starter be it Urias for now or Holliday/Mayo in the future. Maybe some Mateo in the mix. 

[Frobby]

Time for the second installment of 27-game segments, now that the O's have played 54 games.  The O's went 18-9 in this segment, after going 17-10 in the prior one.  Below shows the 1st/2nd segment breakdown for the position players.  The first line for each player is their totals through 27 games; the second line is cumulative totals through 54 games.  I don't have a breakdown of the second segment by itself because it's too time consuming, but you can look at the two lines together for each player and get the picture.   I'm going to post the chart first and makes some comments in posts that will follow later.  (Apologies that the format is wobbly when negative numbers appear, I don't know how to fix that.)

Name		PA	rWAR	Rdrs	OPS	fWAR	OAA	wOBA	xwOBA
Rutschman 	119	1.2	2	0.816	0.9	1.2	0.361	0.383
		226	2.0	2	0.815	1.7	1.2	0.353	0.343
Mountcastle	103	1.1	1	0.906	0.6	-3	0.393	0.395
		205	1.3	3	0.788	0.8	-2	0.342	0.342
Henderson	124	1.8	0	0.959	1.9	2	0.408	0.389
		243	3.7	5	0.938	3.3	3	0.399	0.390
Westburg 	101	1.4	1	0.903	1.3	1	0.394	0.422
		209	2.3	2	0.859	2.2	4	0.373	0.374
Cowser		80	1.0	0	1.037	1.4	3	0.439	0.390
		177	0.9	1	0.772	1.7	6	0.337	0.365
Mullins		100	0.7	1	0.717	0.7	2	0.311	0.304
		173	0.1	-1	0.564	-0.1	1	0.249	0.244
Santander 	113	0.3	0	0.728	0.3	1	0.319	0.302
		209	0.6	1	0.706	0.4	0	0.311	0.293
O'Hearn 	71	0.7	0	0.929	0.7	0	0.403	0.502
		154	1.1	1	0.802	0.9	2	0.347	0.398
 Hays		50	-0.8	-1	0.311	-0.7	-1	0.149	0.286
		80	-0.9	-3	0.43	-0.7	-1	0.194	0.266
Urias		44	-0.1	0	0.484	-0.3	-1	0.215	0.214
		68	0.3	1	0.608	0.0	-1	0.272	0.295
McCann		43	0.0	-1	0.651	0.0	-0.3	0.284	0.323
		83	-0.3	-2	0.501	-0.4	-0.9	0.217	0.289
Mateo		39	0.3	0	0.733	0.3	-1	0.328	0.292
		119	1.3	5	0.734	1.0	1	0.317	0.305
Holliday	36	-0.5	-1	0.170	-0.3	3	0.089	0.155
		36	-0.5	-1	0.170	-0.3	3	0.089	0.155
Kjerstad	5	-0.1	0	0.000	-0.1	0	0.000	0.057
		17	0.0	1	0.437	-0.1	0	0.143	0.229
Stowers (2)	19	0.1	-1	0.924	0.1	0	0.388	0.448

 

Edited May 30 by Frobby

[Moose Milligan]

Holliday looking at Hays from Norfolk like "Man, I was bad when I got called up but what's your excuse?"

[ChosenOne21]

Basically everyone except Hays and Urias got worse, and in those two's cases they really couldn't get worse. I know those red hot starts weren't sustainable, but still you'd have liked to see a few guys keep it up.

Edited May 30 by ChosenOne21

[spleen1015]

Westburg on a 7 rWAR pace. Who would've thunk it?

Mateo's 2nd segment is a nice surprise.

Thanks Frobbster. 

[Ripken]

Four kids (Gunnar, AR, Jordan, Cowser) and four veterans (Mounty, ROH, Mateo and sometimes Tony) have done a really nice job.  Not perfect, of course, but positive contributors.  Great that the younger guys have the bigger WAR numbers.  Lots of good defense in there as well from most of them.  

The next 5 slots have had 8 players rotate through with pretty bad results though Stowers is producing in limited action.  Mullins still plays a good CF, and has looked better the last few games, but has struggled.  Holliday is 20 and will figure it out but didn't look ready.  They completely screwed Kjerstad.  McKenna is gone.  Urias hasn't played much at all.  McCann looks done but it's true nobody has a good backup C.

Hays is the tough one.  Ugh.  He's been terrible.  We all like the guy but his spot is in serious jeopardy.  Mullins looks like a decent 4th OF/PR guy only.  We're all waiting for Mateo to regress.  Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad (and maybe even Norby) could all play important roles in the last 2/3rds and might have a say in who makes the playoff roster.  

Edited May 30 by Ripken

[Just Regular]

I notice rWAR Gunnar segment 2 nipped Gunnar segment 1 by 1.9 to 1.8.

It was a beautiful thing last year when I believe per 18-game segment he increased every measuring period.

The streak either ends here, or he'll be halfway to an 11-win season.

Gunnar isn't quite yet the rWAR leader for players born in 2001 but he will probably take that distinction in June.

[Spy Fox]

So the second-segment-only WAR totals were the following, in order of +rWAR. 

• Henderson 1.9 rWAR/1.4 fWAR
• Mateo 1.0/0.7
• Westburg 0.9/0.9
• Rutschman 0.8/0.8
• Urias 0.4/0.3
• O'Hearn 0.4/0.2
• Santander 0.3/0.1
• Mountcastle 0.2/0.2
• Stowers 0.1/0.1
• Kjerstad 0.1/0
• Cowser -0.1/+0.3
• Hays -0.1/0
• McCann -0.3/-0.4
• Mullins -0.6/-0.8

Edited May 30 by Spy Fox