This offensive style is not sustainable

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Will Westburg at the top of the lineup continue?  Gunnar cleanup?  Mateo has been getting on at least once in his last several games. That helps the offense so much. 

Hyde said Gunnar would be back top vs. RHP.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hyde said Gunnar would be back top vs. RHP.

When do we pull the trigger on Westburg #2? I think he’s earned it, and hitting in between Gunnar and Adley gets him more hittable pitches. Theoretically over the long haul. He has speed too. The only downside is that he’s RH and more susceptible to GIDPs. 

Edited May 16 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

When do we pull the trigger on Westburg #2? I think he’s earned it, and hitting in between Gunnar and Adley gets him more hittable pitches. Theoretically over the long haul. He has speed too. The only downside is that he’s RH and more susceptible to GIDPs. 

We might see this.  However, I think Hyde likes having good hitters at different parts of the lineup so that opponents never have an inning they can coast through.   I’m not too fussed about it either way.  Studies have shown that batting order makes very little difference in run scoring.  I do think there’s logic in getting your best hitters the most at bats, by putting them at the top.  

[baltfan]

First, everyone should know that these hitters aren't just acting independently.  Their at-bats were graded all through the minors and likely are being graded today.  To the extent there has been aggression, it is by design in order to score the maximum amount of runs.  I think there will likely have to be some adjustment because teams are taking advantage of the approach, but no one should think that the Orioles are encouraging their players to swing at pitches they don't think they can do damage on.  It's just that the definition of a pitch you can do damage on has likely expanded some.  

I trust that this will be fixed.  There is a reason the team is still toward the top of the MLB in runs scored.  It might turnout, however, that this approach must be adjusted against better teams.  

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We might see this.  However, I think Hyde likes having good hitters at different parts of the lineup so that opponents never have an inning they can coast through.   I’m not too fussed about it either way.  Studies have shown that batting order makes very little difference in run scoring.  I do think there’s logic in getting your best hitters the most at bats, by putting them at the top.  

Well someone needs to show Hyde the batting order studies.

I'd prefer to have Westy closer to the top to get him more at bats.  

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Will Westburg at the top of the lineup continue?  Gunnar cleanup?  Mateo has been getting on at least once in his last several games. That helps the offense so much. 

Hyde said after the game that Gunnar would continue leading off against RHP.

[Bemorewins]

It is likely that how these top guys were handled in the Minors is different to how they are being handled now (especially the budding stars/superstars). 

I highly doubt anyone is telling Adley or Gunnar what to do. Or that some kind of “grading system” is being used to evaluate them and if it was that they would really care much. 

Most likely what is going on is what takes place in all major sports now, they are being given information based on collected data and suggestions are being made to them in terms of that data/information might help them. It’s just a different way of coaching. Instead of using purely technique and/or biomechanics to improve player performance, data science is being incorporated to augment the approach.

But at the end of the day, the players decide what to do with the suggestions that they are being given. Nobody is telling them if you don’t swing early in the count, you will get a “bad grade” or be replaced. You cannot handle professional athletes in that manner in these modern times.

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, baltfan said:

First, everyone should know that these hitters aren't just acting independently.  Their at-bats were graded all through the minors and likely are being graded today.  To the extent there has been aggression, it is by design in order to score the maximum amount of runs.  I think there will likely have to be some adjustment because teams are taking advantage of the approach, but no one should think that the Orioles are encouraging their players to swing at pitches they don't think they can do damage on.  It's just that the definition of a pitch you can do damage on has likely expanded some.  

I trust that this will be fixed.  There is a reason the team is still toward the top of the MLB in runs scored.  It might turnout, however, that this approach must be adjusted against better teams.  

Ryan O’Hearn.   This is what is taught in the organization.  Not chasing pitches out of the zone but also not letting hittable pitches to go by.  A few hitters, like Rutschman, may have been encouraged to be more aggressive on hittable pitches.    The Orioles, I’m sure, would like to have 13 hitters with O’Hearns approach.   Easier said than done.  Some players have traded passive for aggressive.   There’s a happy median where it seems very few reside.  There is an organizational philosophy but one size doesn’t fit all and then it comes down to working with the individual hitter.

[Aristotelian]

Overall hitting numbers 2023-24:

2023

1370 K (22.4%), 512 BB (8.4%), K/BB 2.68, OPS .742, OPS+ 107, .255/.321/.421

2024

346 K (22.3%), 107 BB (6.9%), K/BB 3.23, OPS .746, OPS+ 117, .245/.304/.442

The walks are down but K's are level. OPS is slightly up, but up a bit more on a league adjusted basis. Average and OBP are down, .SLG is up. Overall, if this is a new approach, it does not appear to be hurting us. 

One of the biggest differentials is Adley, who has gone from elite 13.4% BB% down to Mateo level 5.0%. However, Adley is hitting .314 and slugging .509, so again the approach does not seem to be hurting us. Is Adley adopting a new approach, or is he adjusting to being pitched differently? Will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

Other differentials: Santander, Mountcastle, and Gunnar are all down but only by about 1%. Mullins is down from 9% to 5%, but he is sucking overall so hard to tell what that means. The outlier is O'Hearn up from 4% to 12%.

Some of this could be due to the mix of teams we have faced. Red Sox and Twins are 1-2 in BB allowed. Nats, Jays, Dbacks, Royals, Pirates and Reds are all in the top half. We have faced zero of the bottom five and only four below median teams. I think that could account for the guys whose BB% is down incrementally. 

That really just leaves Adley. My interpretation is that there is a book out on him and he is adjusting. Will be interesting to see how he continues to develop. 

 

 

[andymax]

We have no way of knowing what's happening behind the scenes. Maybe the org has decided that, after years of preaching patience, some of our young hitters need to focus more on mastering an aggressive approach temporarily? Learn to do more damage, or to better handle pitches out of their preferred zone, all with the intent of shifting back to the patient approach later in the season. Improve bat-to-ball skills through aggression, then couple it with the patience already developed during their time in the minors. Seems viable to me.

Or maybe they just determined that it was statistically advantageous to swing more this season, and based on their overall offensive stats that seems to be the case up to this point.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

We might see this.  However, I think Hyde likes having good hitters at different parts of the lineup so that opponents never have an inning they can coast through.   I’m not too fussed about it either way.  Studies have shown that batting order makes very little difference in run scoring.  I do think there’s logic in getting your best hitters the most at bats, by putting them at the top.  

Interesting.  I've never thought about that before.  I've read the studies on line-ups and understand there isn't a huge difference, but for me you have to have your best hitters at the top of the lineup.  Gunnar was due up 4th in the bottom of the 9th yesterday.  Of all the 'botches' people have been complaining about yesterday from Hyde, had we lost that game with our best hitter not coming to the plate in the bottom of the 9th, that would have been my #1 complaint. 

[ORIOLE33]

This offense is looking more and more like the Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Chris Davis era O's. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

 

I highly doubt anyone is telling Adley or Gunnar what to do. Or that some kind of “grading system” is being used to evaluate them and if it was that they would really care much. 

 

It is public knowledge that the Orioles have a swing decisions app. Austin Hays talks about it in this piece. Sounds like a grading system to me. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/austin-hays-follows-the-numbers-and-trusts-the-process/

Laurila: Which of your data do you look at after games?

 

Hays: “We have an app that we use. All of the information goes in there after each game, and something I’ve tried to improve on this year is my swing-decision scores. Every pitch you swing at or take, every pitch thrown, we have a score for. It’s not a perfect metric, but I think it does a pretty good job of showing you what you’re doing at the plate.

“If you’re taking a strike with two strikes, that’s going to have the biggest negative score. And if you’re in a three-ball count and swing at a pitch that’s pretty far outside the strike zone, a clear ball, that’s going to get the most hurt as well. But if you take edgy pitches early in the count, or you take a close pitch for ball four, a pitch that is just outside the zone, that’s going to get the most points.

“That’s something I’ve been looking at every single day. It’s ‘OK, how was my plate discipline yesterday? How did I do?’ From that you can start to see, ‘Oh, wow, I’ve had a really good two weeks, I’ve have a lot of doubles, hit some home runs, and my batting average is really high.’ I’ll see that I’ve been making really good swing decisions, and that’s led me to me hitting the ball hard. Or let’s say I have a bad week. I can see if there is any correlation to the pitches I’ve been swinging at and if I’ve been chasing.”

Laurila: Valuable information, but as you said, not a perfect metric.

Hays: “Right. Much like you can’t be all in for exit velocity, you can’t be all in for swing decisions. You’re going to have days where you’re minus-50 and go 4-for-4, or you’ll have a day where you go 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and your score was plus-14. That does happen. So it’s not the end all be all. But over a long period of time, the guy that has a pretty high batting average or a really high on-base tends to have better scores.”

[emmett16]

54 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Overall hitting numbers 2023-24:

2023

1370 K (22.4%), 512 BB (8.4%), K/BB 2.68, OPS .742, OPS+ 107, .255/.321/.421

2024

346 K (22.3%), 107 BB (6.9%), K/BB 3.23, OPS .746, OPS+ 117, .245/.304/.442

The walks are down but K's are level. OPS is slightly up, but up a bit more on a league adjusted basis. Average and OBP are down, .SLG is up. Overall, if this is a new approach, it does not appear to be hurting us. 

One of the biggest differentials is Adley, who has gone from elite 13.4% BB% down to Mateo level 5.0%. However, Adley is hitting .314 and slugging .509, so again the approach does not seem to be hurting us. Is Adley adopting a new approach, or is he adjusting to being pitched differently? Will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

Other differentials: Santander, Mountcastle, and Gunnar are all down but only by about 1%. Mullins is down from 9% to 5%, but he is sucking overall so hard to tell what that means. The outlier is O'Hearn up from 4% to 12%.

Some of this could be due to the mix of teams we have faced. Red Sox and Twins are 1-2 in BB allowed. Nats, Jays, Dbacks, Royals, Pirates and Reds are all in the top half. We have faced zero of the bottom five and only four below median teams. I think that could account for the guys whose BB% is down incrementally. 

That really just leaves Adley. My interpretation is that there is a book out on him and he is adjusting. Will be interesting to see how he continues to develop. 

 

 

Yea, there is no different approach.  Its a SSS in a long season.  

Their wOBA and ISO are up this year over last year.  Their OBP is down slightly but can be attributed to a .278 BABIP this year vs. a .305 last year.  The k% is almost identical and the BB % is off by -1.5%.   I'd wager that by the end of season, the BB% will be up and the numbers will be up across the board.  

wRC+ 114 this year vs. 105 last year.  Why are people complaining? Because it seems like we are being less patient?

Edited May 16 by emmett16

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

They definitely need to walk more but it’s not like they strike out a ton either. This year they’re 29th in BB% (6.9%) and 14th best in K% (22.1%). Last year they were 20th in BB% (8.4%) and 14th best in K% (22.4%). 

In terms of BB%, Adley going from 13.4% to 5% plays a big part. From what I calculated, if he was walking 13% of the time (a little lower than 2022 and 2023), the team walk rate would be 7.9%, up to 24th in the MLB. Other than that, it’s mostly minor decreases from Mountcastle, Mullins, Henderson, Westburg, and Mountcastle. Losing Hicks hurt too (14.8 BB% last year with the O’s) but O’Hearn at 12.3% has been a nice surprise. 

It’s going to be tough to hit their rate from last year the rest of the season if Adley keeps walking at a 5% rate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see small increases across the board from almost every other regular. FWIW, the O’s only walked 7.2% of the time in both June and August of 2023 which is pretty low too, but were above 8.8% in 3 other months. So hopefully these are their lower months this year. 

So wait, are we really upset that Adley is not walking as much as last year when he's doing just about everything else better this year to include power?

OPS: Up .050
SLG: Up .074
AVG: UP .037
HH%: Up 9.9%
EV: Up 1.6 MPH
ISO: Up .037
OPS+: Up .021
HR: On pace for 16 more HRs

I mean, I get the idea that this team is being more aggressive, but I'll take 2024 Adley over 2023 Adley everyday of the week and twice on Sunday!