If you were looking to extend Burnes, what would be the max contract offer?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And this is what is going to be interesting to me going forward.

With the pitching injuries being what they are, is it possible we see teams spending less on pitching or, put in a better way, will we see shorter term/higher AAV deals?

I think that’s something to watch. 

I think we'll see a shift towards shorter term deals with high AAV. There's too much risk in a 5 year deal with the glut pitching injuries and pitchers who are never quite the same again or even fail to come back.

Burnes on a three year deal is a lot more palatable than a 5 or 6 year contract. It would also line up nicely with the time Grayson will be nearing free agency and having the money to sign him if Burnes isn't locked up long term.

[Malike]

Burnes isn't Snell or Montgomery. He will get a longer-term deal. Snell won the CY but he's pitched more than 129 innings twice in his 9 year career. I'm not sure why Boras thought he was getting 300M dollars, he guessed wrong and the results bare that out.

[24fps]

4 hours ago, dystopia said:

Would he go for 5/$175?

I would certainly be comfortable with that and I suspect Rubenstein would be too.  Like others, I think another team would offer more.  Five years is also my limit and other teams will go longer IMO.

I am very much looking forward to recalibrating my notion of what's affordable for the Orioles and what isn't.  The truth is is that everubody here has zero idea what Rubenstein will and won't do when it comes to the budget. Zero.

[jabba72]

4 hours ago, dystopia said:

Would he go for 5/$175?

Only if he wanted to play for a winner but even then a few big market teams might be in the bidding. Burnes has a great situation here, its just not a big market team. 

I dont see any agent advising him to accept that deal.

[jabba72]

3 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

3/110 would be my offer

Thats the definition of a team friendly deal. He wont accept it. 

[Frobby]

Adding some historical ERA+ info to @Say O!’s comps;

Comps from last offseason

• Wheeler (age 34) = 3/$126M or $42M AAV, no opt outs, extension begins 2025 [career  115 ERA+, 120 in 2023 in 192 IP]
• Nola (age 30) = 7/$172M or $25M AAV, no opt outs [113 career; 97 in 193 in ‘23]
• Snell (age 31) = 2/$62M or $31M AAV, 2025 player option [127 career, 184 in ‘23 in 180 IP]
• Gray (age 34) = 3/$75M or $25M AAV [121 career; 152 in 184 IP in ‘23]
• Montgomery (age 31) = 1/$25M [116 career; 136 in ‘23]
• Yamamoto (age 25) = 12/$325 or $27M AAV with deferrals, can opt out  after 2029 or 2031.

Burnes (30 next year) has a career ERA+ of 130, and is at 142 right now.   I think if he maintains his current pace (by no means a foregone conclusion), he’ll get 7 years as Nola did, but the AAV will be much higher.  He’s been more consistently top shelf than any of these guys.  I still like my Cole comp, shaving off two years for the age difference.  I doubt he gets an AAV higher than Cole’s $36 mm but he might match it or come close.

[Orioles Jim]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

After the O's win the World Series with Burnes as their ace:   It will take 7/280m.   The O's will not bid.  No use to bid if they are not willing to offer that number.

But they will extend Means.   GRod, Bradish, Means, Irvin, Kremer, Povich in 2025.

My Burnes jersey just got delivered today. Flags fly forever and I would happily wear that jersey for many years to come under that scenario.

[jabba72]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Adding some historical ERA+ info to @Say O!’s comps;

Comps from last offseason

• Wheeler (age 34) = 3/$126M or $42M AAV, no opt outs, extension begins 2025 [career  115 ERA+, 120 in 2023 in 192 IP]
• Nola (age 30) = 7/$172M or $25M AAV, no opt outs [113 career; 97 in 193 in ‘23]
• Snell (age 31) = 2/$62M or $31M AAV, 2025 player option [127 career, 184 in ‘23 in 180 IP]
• Gray (age 34) = 3/$75M or $25M AAV [121 career; 152 in 184 IP in ‘23]
• Montgomery (age 31) = 1/$25M [116 career; 136 in ‘23]
• Yamamoto (age 25) = 12/$325 or $27M AAV with deferrals, can opt out  after 2029 or 2031.

Burnes (30 next year) has a career ERA+ of 130, and is at 142 right now.   I think if he maintains his current pace (by no means a foregone conclusion), he’ll get 7 years as Nola did, but the AAV will be much higher.  He’s been more consistently top shelf than any of these guys.  I still like my Cole comp, shaving off two years for the age difference.  I doubt he gets an AAV higher than Cole’s $36 mm but he might match it or come close.

My guess is he'll be holding out for even more and might 'settle' for something around these perimeters. Way outside the O's price range.

[ChipTait]

Not going to throw numbers out there, but the impending implosion of half(?) of the RSNs might throw a huge wrench into the machinations of the 2024/25 free agent market. I'd be surprised to see any contracts over 4 years offered until there is some certainty as to how TV revenue will shake out.

If I'm Burnes, I'm looking for high AAV over length.  North of $1M per start.

[CaptainRedbeard]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think if he maintains his current pace (by no means a foregone conclusion), he’ll get 7 years as Nola did, but the AAV will be much higher.  He’s been more consistently top shelf than any of these guys.  I still like my Cole comp, shaving off two years for the age difference.  I doubt he gets an AAV higher than Cole’s $36 mm but he might match it or come close.

I think this is right, Boras’ initial asking price will be to top Cole’s deal but given Burnes’ age he will get 7 years. But I think he’ll “settle” for 7 years by narrowly going over Cole’s AAV, so something like 7 yr / $255 M.

The one interesting wrinkle is that teams have often gone extra years for lower AAV for luxury tax purposes. The Orioles have somewhat of an “advantage” in that they could do a high AAV and still never come close to paying luxury tax. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

One other consideration is the Yankees are going to be giving Soto a massive contract and their starting pitching has been quite good this year, so there’s a decent chance they won’t be all-in on Burnes. I’m not sure about the Dodgers.

Those are the two clubs that can really go to a different stratosphere than any others when it comes to payroll, so the Orioles could find themselves primarily competing with the more typical big market teams. If the Yankees or Dodgers decide they want Burnes though, the Orioles aren’t getting him.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think this is right, Boras’ initial asking price will be to top Cole’s deal but given Burnes’ age he will get 7 years. But I think he’ll “settle” for 7 years by narrowly going over Cole’s AAV, so something like 7 yr / $255 M.

The one interesting wrinkle is that teams have often gone extra years for lower AAV for luxury tax purposes. The Orioles have somewhat of an “advantage” in that they could do a high AAV and still never come close to paying luxury tax. 

The main reason I don’t think Burnes’ AAV will top Cole’s is that the winning bidder won’t we getting Burnes’ age 29-30 seasons, which in Cole’s deal, figured to be the most valuable ones.   In other words, you could look at Cole’s deal as having really been $46/$46/$46 - $36/$36/$36 - $26/$26/$26 in terms of actual expected value.  That averages out to $36 mm AAV, but if you knocked off the age 29/30 seasons, the remainder would be 7/$$234, an AAV of $33.4 mm.  So I’ll guess Burnes will get 7 years and something between $234 mm - $258 mm.   

[Just Regular]

Pedigree, I think GM's will be less willing than with Cole to pay the back years too.     Cole is at the top of the Nuke Laloosh blessed pyramid.

Burnes (and Snell, and Woodruff, and Bradish) are I think pegged on a different raw talent level.     Wheeler/Nola are more like Cole than like Burnes.

With very good fortune we'll get a couple Burnes-Yamamoto head to heads late and our guy will be able to tell the market, "I'm clearly better."

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The main reason I don’t think Burnes’ AAV will top Cole’s is that the winning bidder won’t we getting Burnes’ age 29-30 seasons, which in Cole’s deal, figured to be the most valuable ones.   In other words, you could look at Cole’s deal as having really been $46/$46/$46 - $36/$36/$36 - $26/$26/$26 in terms of actual expected value.  That averages out to $36 mm AAV, but if you knocked off the age 29/30 seasons, the remainder would be 7/$$234, an AAV of $33.4 mm.  So I’ll guess Burnes will get 7 years and something between $234 mm - $258 mm.   

Sure, I don’t think Burnes is worth more than about $200M for the rest of his playing career. But based on negotiation dynamics, I expect Boras to start from asking to beat Cole’s deal, then no team will go higher than 7 years, and then he’ll ask to beat Cole’s AAV. Cole signed his deal after 2019 so there’s been some inflation in player salaries and $/WAR since then, and agents (and Boras in particular) care about setting those records. 

There’s a decent chance no team will be willing to meet that asking price of 7 years & highest AAV, in part because the luxury tax teams like to keep the AAVs lower. Maybe there will be some deferred money. But it only takes one team to meet it, and if Boras doesn’t overplay his hand in the initial days of free agency by asking to beat Cole’s deal in total, I expect one will. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Sure, I don’t think Burnes is worth more than about $200M for the rest of his playing career. But based on negotiation dynamics, I expect Boras to start from asking to beat Cole’s deal, then no team will go higher than 7 years, and then he’ll ask to beat Cole’s AAV. Cole signed his deal after 2019 so there’s been some inflation in player salaries and $/WAR since then, and agents (and Boras in particular) care about setting those records. 

There’s a decent chance no team will be willing to meet that asking price of 7 years & highest AAV, in part because the luxury tax teams like to keep the AAVs lower. Maybe there will be some deferred money. But it only takes one team to meet it, and if Boras doesn’t overplay his hand in the initial days of free agency by asking to beat Cole’s deal in total, I expect one will. 

Maybe.  I’m pretty sure it won’t be the Orioles though.