If you were looking to extend Burnes, what would be the max contract offer?

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Sure, I don’t think Burnes is worth more than about $200M for the rest of his playing career. But based on negotiation dynamics, I expect Boras to start from asking to beat Cole’s deal, then no team will go higher than 7 years, and then he’ll ask to beat Cole’s AAV. Cole signed his deal after 2019 so there’s been some inflation in player salaries and $/WAR since then, and agents (and Boras in particular) care about setting those records. 

There’s a decent chance no team will be willing to meet that asking price of 7 years & highest AAV, in part because the luxury tax teams like to keep the AAVs lower. Maybe there will be some deferred money. But it only takes one team to meet it, and if Boras doesn’t overplay his hand in the initial days of free agency by asking to beat Cole’s deal in total, I expect one will. 

Burnes agent is CAA sports so I dont know about their past history on having a top-of-the-line Free Agent like Burnes will be. If it were Boras, I'd fully expect him to try and beat Cole's contract in yearly average. CAA might have a different approach but then I kind of doubt it. Boras screwed the pooch last year with Montgomery and Snell, costing them both possibly up to $100-150m each. Sometimes his unreasonable strategy pays off, but last year it backfired in a very costly way. 

[Matt Bennett]

Some thoughts:  

1. O’s payroll is in the bottom 5 of the league. 

2. Rubenstein is very wealthy himself and has extremely wealthy partners (didn’t I hear they were technically the richest ownership group in baseball? I’m sure Bloomberg inflates that and I wouldn’t expect them to actually operate as the richest ownership group). 

3. Orioles attendance is on a consistent incline and is inching towards league average. 

4. The O’s would have to add about $60M in immediate payroll to get to just league average. 

5. The state is picking up the cost of Camden Yards renovations to the tune of hundreds of millions? 

6. With Elias’ draft strategy and current state of Orioles’ assets, a position player splash is not necessary. 

7. Kimbrel and Santander departing vacates $25M alone. There’s other smaller contracts expiring as well but arbitration raises will cancel some/most of this out? 

With all that being said, what do you expect Rubenstein to spend his money on?  The answer to me is obvious: Starting pitching. Maybe you don’t think Burnes is the guy you pay. But you get what you pay for. John Means won’t get Corbin Burnes money cause he’s not Corbin Burnes. There’s no Kyle Gibson or Jordan Lyles type deals you can give out to an ace. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

Some thoughts:  

1. O’s payroll is in the bottom 5 of the league. 

2. Rubenstein is very wealthy himself and has extremely wealthy partners (didn’t I hear they were technically the richest ownership group in baseball? I’m sure Bloomberg inflates that and I wouldn’t expect them to actually operate as the richest ownership group). 

3. Orioles attendance is on a consistent incline and is inching towards league average. 

4. The O’s would have to add about $60M in immediate payroll to get to just league average. 

5. The state is picking up the cost of Camden Yards renovations to the tune of hundreds of millions? 

6. With Elias’ draft strategy and current state of Orioles’ assets, a position player splash is not necessary. 

7. Kimbrel and Santander departing vacates $25M alone. There’s other smaller contracts expiring as well but arbitration raises will cancel some/most of this out? 

With all that being said, what do you expect Rubenstein to spend his money on?  The answer to me is obvious: Starting pitching. Maybe you don’t think Burnes is the guy you pay. But you get what you pay for. John Means won’t get Corbin Burnes money cause he’s not Corbin Burnes. There’s no Kyle Gibson or Jordan Lyles type deals you can give out to an ace. 

Other #2 I cannot find any fault with any thing that you have stated.

As far as #2 goes, Steve Cohen (the owner of the Mets) is by far the richest owner in the sport (probably all of American sports).

[Safelykept]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adding some historical ERA+ info to @Say O!’s comps;

Comps from last offseason

• Wheeler (age 34) = 3/$126M or $42M AAV, no opt outs, extension begins 2025 [career  115 ERA+, 120 in 2023 in 192 IP]
• Nola (age 30) = 7/$172M or $25M AAV, no opt outs [113 career; 97 in 193 in ‘23]
• Snell (age 31) = 2/$62M or $31M AAV, 2025 player option [127 career, 184 in ‘23 in 180 IP]
• Gray (age 34) = 3/$75M or $25M AAV [121 career; 152 in 184 IP in ‘23]
• Montgomery (age 31) = 1/$25M [116 career; 136 in ‘23]
• Yamamoto (age 25) = 12/$325 or $27M AAV with deferrals, can opt out  after 2029 or 2031.

Burnes (30 next year) has a career ERA+ of 130, and is at 142 right now.   I think if he maintains his current pace (by no means a foregone conclusion), he’ll get 7 years as Nola did, but the AAV will be much higher.  He’s been more consistently top shelf than any of these guys.  I still like my Cole comp, shaving off two years for the age difference.  I doubt he gets an AAV higher than Cole’s $36 mm but he might match it or come close.

4 Years 145 Million( little bit higher than Coles average, Would go higher average if some money is deferred) Player Opt out after 2 years, Mutual option of 45 Mil. for year 5. Thats it. Who is are our competition? hes not getting 7 years from the Yankees, they have enough pitching and will set their spending sights on a Soto FA signing, LA has so many big contracts already, Philly too,. Atlanta could definitely be a player. 

[btdart20]

The OP frames it well.  It's about the risk/reward appetite.  And the biggest risk is a long term guaranteed deal.

I would try to stagger/ladder the maturity date of our investment portfolio to aid decision making.  FA markets change from year to year.  Trade markets too.  Having assets near maturity and not having too many assets maturing at once is (IMHO) a key piece of sustainability.

I'd offer a front loaded contract with a player opt out after 2 years to maximize the Adley Years.  Something that puts $90m guaranteed in the Burnes Family Trust.  Then drops to whatever projectable glide path with annual player opt outs.  

From Burnes' perspective that gives him another FA option after his age 31 season.  Young enough go still go for length and max $ along the lines of deGrom.

[Sports Guy]

I think there’s a section of fans, including some on here, that would rather us pay 30M for Gunnar this year just so we can say the payroll is higher.

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Other #2 I cannot find any fault with any thing that you have stated.

As far as #2 goes, Steve Cohen (the owner of the Mets) is by far the richest owner in the sport (probably all of American sports).

But technically Mike Bloomberg is part of the ownership group and he’s far wealthier than Steve Cohen I believe. But again, this is really just a technicality as Bloomberg was just a contributor and won’t significantly invest in the O’s. Still, a wealthy group of individuals on par or better with other MLB owners. 

[Orioles0615]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

After the O's win the World Series with Burnes as their ace:   It will take 7/280m.   The O's will not bid.  No use to bid if they are not willing to offer that number.

But they will extend Means.   GRod, Bradish, Means, Irvin, Kremer, Povich in 2025.

I will take a hard pass on that rotation. Means has health issues and who knows how Bradishs elbow does. If they don't extend Burnes ( they probably won't) they need to get another ace a different way

[Malike]

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Burnes agent is CAA sports so I dont know about their past history on having a top-of-the-line Free Agent like Burnes will be. If it were Boras, I'd fully expect him to try and beat Cole's contract in yearly average. CAA might have a different approach but then I kind of doubt it. Boras screwed the pooch last year with Montgomery and Snell, costing them both possibly up to $100-150m each. Sometimes his unreasonable strategy pays off, but last year it backfired in a very costly way. 

Did he change agents? Boras was his agent in March.

[jabba72]

45 minutes ago, Malike said:

Did he change agents? Boras was his agent in March.

I just went by his bref page that said Burnes agent was CAA sports. Could be wrong, I didnt look for any other sources. 

Agents: CAA Sports

[OriolesMagic83]

If Burnes stays healthy the whole year and is a Cy Young contender, he'll be the top free agent pitcher and maybe player too (I haven't really looked at what position players are free agents).  I'm sure he's looking at $40 mill/year+ for 7 years or more.  Probably trying to top $300 million.  That's not the range the O's, a mid market team can play in.  Too dangerous to lock up such a large percentage of payroll in 1 pitcher given how often pitcher injuries happen and how they can influence future performance. 

[Malike]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

I just went by his bref page that said Burnes agent was CAA sports. Could be wrong, I didnt look for any other sources. 

Agents: CAA Sports

“I was shocked,” Burnes said. “Being this late in the spring with some of the moves the Brewers had made to better the offense and get some more depth ... it was definitely shock.”

Burnes then called his agent, Scott Boras, who also represents Hoskins.  

“There was shock when I called my agent,” Burnes said. “He was like, ‘Seriously? It kind of goes counterproductive to some of the comments that were said with the Hoskins signing.’ It definitely caught everyone off-guard.”

[OriolesMagic83]

52 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I will take a hard pass on that rotation. Means has health issues and who knows how Bradishs elbow does. If they don't extend Burnes ( they probably won't) they need to get another ace a different way

Yeah, I can't see extending Means as a smart decision.  He operates on too small of a margin of good outcomes.  If his stuff is a little off, he is getting hammered.  Would be nice to lock up Gray Rod while he still might be affordable.  Hopefully Povich will make a successful transition to the majors next year to fill one of the spots.  I can't see the O's going more than #3 starter money for a pitcher.  Just doesn't make sense to lock up that much money in a starting pitcher.

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

“I was shocked,” Burnes said. “Being this late in the spring with some of the moves the Brewers had made to better the offense and get some more depth ... it was definitely shock.”

Burnes then called his agent, Scott Boras, who also represents Hoskins.  

“There was shock when I called my agent,” Burnes said. “He was like, ‘Seriously? It kind of goes counterproductive to some of the comments that were said with the Hoskins signing.’ It definitely caught everyone off-guard.”

 Its possible Burnes was put off by what happened to Boras players this offseason. Then again maybe bref is wrong. 

[Greg Pappas]

Quote

Burnes, previously represented by CAA, hired Boras last March, when he was two years away from free agency. His reason: the monster free-agent deals Boras struck for starting pitchers Gerrit Cole ($324 million), Strasburg ($245 million) and Max Scherzer ($210 million), among others.

From this NY Times article.