Juan Soto - eventual Hall of Famer? Inner Circle?

[Frobby]

This is a discussion that got some run in the Gunnar Henderson thread on the main board but probably belongs here.  The issue is: how great a career will Juan Soto have?   Is he a likely Hall of Famer, and if so, will he be an “inner circle” guy who gets discussed as one of the very best players or best hitters of all time?

My personal opinion is, Soto has enough of a head start at age 25 that his odds of one day making the Hall of Fame are very good.  He’s been worth 31.3 rWAR, 31.4 fWAR and still has 2/3 of his age 25 season to play.  

However, I don’t think he’s a shoe-in at this stage.  Making the Hall is largely about what players do in the back half of their careers, and you never know who will stay healthy and continue to perform well.  Vada Pinson was worth 34.7 rWAR through his age 25 season and last I checked, his plaque wasn’t found in Cooperstown.  Soto has a lot more work to do.

Assuming Soto does continue to rake and makes it to the Hall, I don’t see him as a serious candidate for Inner Circle status.   First, as @Malikesaid in the main board discussion, his mediocre defense and base running will keep his WAR totals down a bit and prevent any discussion of him as a great all-around player.   But even as just a hitter, I think he’ll end up in the great but not otherworldly category.   His current career OPS+ is 158.  That puts him up there with many of the greats for now, but chances are it will drop as he ages.  And even now, 158 only would put him 21st on the all time list.  

So, put me down for likely but not certain Hall of Fsmer, and not someone who will be in the Inner Circle, wherever that is.  
 

 

Edited May 28 by Frobby

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is a discussion that got some run in the Gunnar Henderson thread on the main board but probably belongs here.  The issue is: how great a career will Juan Soto have?   Is he a likely Hall of Famer, and if so, will he be an “inner circle” guy who gets discussed as one of the very best players or best hitters of all time?

My personal opinion is, Soto has enough of a head start at age 25 that his odds of one day making the Hall of Fame are very good.  He’s been worth 31.3 rWAR, 31.4 fWAR and still has 2/3 of his age 25 season to play.  

However, I don’t think he’s a shoe-in at this stage.  Making the Hall is largely about what players do in the back half of their careers, and you never know who will stay healthy and continue to perform well.  Vada Pinson was worth 34.7 rWAR through his age 25 season and last I checked, his plaque wasn’t found in Cooperstown.  Soto has a lot more work to do.

Assuming Soto does continue to rake and makes it to the Hall, I don’t see him as a serious candidate for Inner Circle status.   First, as @Malikesaid in the main board discussion, his mediocre defense and base running will keep his WAR totals down a bit and prevent any discussion of him as a great all-around player.   But even as just a hitter, I think he’ll end up in the great but not otherworldly category.   His current career OPS+ is 158.  That puts him up there with many of the greats for now, but chances are it will drop as he ages.  And even now, 158 only would put him 21st on the all time list.  

So, put me down for likely but not certain Hall of Fsmer, and not someone who will be in the Inner Circle, wherever that is.  
 

 

Great post and I agree. There is no doubt the guy is a great hitter but his overall game is going to keep him from the conversation of top 50 players. Like I brought up in the other thread, Jeter was worth 71.3 bWAR and if he could play defense he'd have probably been closer to the top 30 than he is top 100.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Malike said:

Great post and I agree. There is no doubt the guy is a great hitter but his overall game is going to keep him from the conversation of top 50 players. Like I brought up in the other thread, Jeter was worth 71.3 bWAR and if he could play defense he'd have probably been closer to the top 30 than he is top 100.

And yet, he was one vote shy of being a unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame, something only fellow Yankee Mariano Rivera has done.  

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

And yet, he was one vote shy of being a unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame, something only fellow Yankee Mariano Rivera has done.  

No bias there. None. I think that he managed to not be surrounded by any scandals and was generally well-liked by everyone helped.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Malike said:

No bias there. None. I think that he managed to not be surrounded by any scandals and was generally well-liked by everyone helped.

Well, there should have been many unanimous Hall of Famers over the years.  But if Hank Aaron isn’t getting all the votes, how the heck is Jeter getting all but one?  It’s a joke.  But I digress.  

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Well, there should have been many unanimous Hall of Famers over the years.  But if Hank Aaron isn’t getting all the votes, how the heck is Jeter getting all but one?  It’s a joke.  But I digress.  

I wouldn't be totally shocked if Soto ends up around Jeter in WAR. He's a tick faster than Santander and if the Yankees don't sign him and he ends up in a larger RF, he's going to be exposed out there. He likely will anyway playing half of his games on the road even if he stays in NY. They will have some tough decisions with Stanton, Judge, and Soto, the latter two possibly being negative players on defense as they get older and only 1 DH spot.

[accinfo]

Just now, Malike said:

I wouldn't be totally shocked if Soto ends up around Jeter in WAR. He's a tick faster than Santander and if the Yankees don't sign him and he ends up in a larger RF, he's going to be exposed out there. He likely will anyway playing half of his games on the road even if he stays in NY. They will have some tough decisions with Stanton, Judge, and Soto, the latter two possibly being negative players on defense as they get older and only 1 DH spot.

I would bet that Soto doesn’t end up with the Yankees.  He will go to the highest bidder and it seems to me this Yankee ownership is more reluctant to pay the most for a player.  I think they felt they had to pay Judge because he was home grown.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Soto would need to have a really long prime as a hitter to get consideration for inner circle HOF member because his defense and base running are nothing special.

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, accinfo said:

I would bet that Soto doesn’t end up with the Yankees.  He will go to the highest bidder and it seems to me this Yankee ownership is more reluctant to pay the most for a player.  I think they felt they had to pay Judge because he was home grown.  

I think Boras uses the Mets to up the ante and he likely stays a NYY. They gave up 5 players for him who are pretty good, I think they want him around and he sure seems to fit the heel vibe of the Evil Empire.

Edit:

He'll likely command a larger salary than the Captain Aaron Judge, but I don't think Judge has enough ego to care about that.

Edited May 28 by Malike

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

I wouldn't be totally shocked if Soto ends up around Jeter in WAR. He's a tick faster than Santander and if the Yankees don't sign him and he ends up in a larger RF, he's going to be exposed out there. He likely will anyway playing half of his games on the road even if he stays in NY. They will have some tough decisions with Stanton, Judge, and Soto, the latter two possibly being negative players on defense as they get older and only 1 DH spot.

Oh, I doubt Soto gets far beyond Jeter, if at all.  A poor defensive SS still gets points for being a SS.  Miggy Cabrera was a better hitter than Jeter but was a little shy of him in WAR because he played 1B/DH most of his career (in addition to being a very bad 3B for a time).   

[accinfo]

Just now, Malike said:

I think Boras uses the Mets to up the ante and he likely stays a NYY. They gave up 5 players for him who are pretty good, I think they want him around and he sure seems to fit the heel vibe of the Evil Empire.

I agree he will stay a Yankee if they are highest bidder.  We will see.  

[HowAboutThat]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, there should have been many unanimous Hall of Famers over the years.  But if Hank Aaron isn’t getting all the votes, how the heck is Jeter getting all but one?  It’s a joke.  But I digress.  

Derek Jeter had 71 WAR in 19 years. Buddy Bell got 66 WAR in 17 years. 

It’s good to be a Yankee.
 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Derek Jeter had 71 WAR in 19 years. Buddy Bell got 66 WAR in 17 years. 

It’s good to be a Yankee.
 

Bobby Grich had 71.1 in 17 years.  We could play this game all day.  

I don’t have a problem with Jeter being in and those guys being out.  The WS trophies etc. should count for something.  It’s his near-unanimous selection, compared to many players who were clearly better but had many more “no” votes, that bugs me.  But like I said, if I were king, there are many players who would have been unanimous selections.   The votes against them were absurd.  
 

[HowAboutThat]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bobby Grich had 71.1 in 17 years.  We could play this game all day.  

I don’t have a problem with Jeter being in and those guys being out.  The WS trophies etc. should count for something.  It’s his near-unanimous selection, compared to many players who were clearly better but had many more “no” votes, that bugs me.  But like I said, if I were king, there are many players who would have been unanimous selections.   The votes against them were absurd.  
 

In my wonderful book “The Baseball 100,” Joe Posnanski has many stories of deserving guys not getting the necessary votes until the last minute. The Eddie Matthew’s story is kind of poignant. So yes I agree that lots of guys are in who shouldn’t be or vice versa.

Jeter just gets my goat.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This is a discussion that got some run in the Gunnar Henderson thread on the main board but probably belongs here.  The issue is: how great a career will Juan Soto have?   Is he a likely Hall of Famer, and if so, will he be an “inner circle” guy who gets discussed as one of the very best players or best hitters of all time?

My personal opinion is, Soto has enough of a head start at age 25 that his odds of one day making the Hall of Fame are very good.  He’s been worth 31.3 rWAR, 31.4 fWAR and still has 2/3 of his age 25 season to play.  

However, I don’t think he’s a shoe-in at this stage.  Making the Hall is largely about what players do in the back half of their careers, and you never know who will stay healthy and continue to perform well.  Vada Pinson was worth 34.7 rWAR through his age 25 season and last I checked, his plaque wasn’t found in Cooperstown.  Soto has a lot more work to do.

Assuming Soto does continue to rake and makes it to the Hall, I don’t see him as a serious candidate for Inner Circle status.   First, as @Malikesaid in the main board discussion, his mediocre defense and base running will keep his WAR totals down a bit and prevent any discussion of him as a great all-around player.   But even as just a hitter, I think he’ll end up in the great but not otherworldly category.   His current career OPS+ is 158.  That puts him up there with many of the greats for now, but chances are it will drop as he ages.  And even now, 158 only would put him 21st on the all time list.  

So, put me down for likely but not certain Hall of Fsmer, and not someone who will be in the Inner Circle, wherever that is.  
 

 

I think if he stays in NY he has a decent chance of holding onto that OPS+.