The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Bemorewins]

6 hours ago, emmett16 said:

You do realize our pen has given up fewer runs, fewer hits, fewer BBs, has a lower WHIP, and has more Ks?  I get that they don’t pass your eye test, but the numbers don’t back that up.  With all that said, I think they need to reinforce the pen but let’s stop with the dramatics.  

“Dramatics”? That’s an interesting way of framing my opinion. I promise you I am as calm and cool as a cucumber. There’s no “dramatics” going on here.

As you know, numbers fluctuate during any given period of time in the season. Good/great players have bad/cold stretches and bad/terrible players have good stretches.

IMO we do not possess the type of top end talent at the back end of the bullpen needed to win multiple rounds against the best opposition in October. 

If you are confident in Cano/Kimbrel or worse in Vespi/Baker/Perez/etc getting Soto and Judge out in a big spot late in the game in Yankee stadium in October, that is fine. I am not. 

Just as an observer of baseball, Holmes is a much better pitcher than any reliever that we have. I would be much more confident in his talent than any reliever that we have. Now if we had Felix that would be one thing. But this season we do not. And I would hate for a team as good as ours to be held back by not making the needed/necessary move(s) before we get into October. 

IMO we did that last season (with the starting pitching) and it didn’t end well.

And I acknowledge that everybody doesn’t think like me nor have the same championship expectations/aspirations. Some fans/posters here have stated as much and that they are happy if we have a winning team year after year or if we just make it into the tournament year after year, regardless of results when we get there. And that’s fine. That’s just not my desired outcome.

The great thing about this board is that we don’t have to agree and are able to express our opinions.

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Like many things about the O’s we don’t agree. But I appreciate and respect the difference in opinion.

So you think Elias will give up one of the top 3 prospects to get upgrades?

[dystopia]

We do not have to give up Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo to get what we need.

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, dystopia said:

We do not have to give up Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo to get what we need.

Your definition of what we need and @Bemorewins definiton of what we need may be different.    Getting a #3 starter he feels confident as a game #3 starter in the playoffs.   Who, in his mind, is that pitcher?   Fedde will not require one of those guys.  Crochet might.

[IPlayGM]

I’m going to preface this by saying (1) I expect to get crushed for bringing it up and (2) it shouldn’t impact trade deadline strategy.  
 

I think Felix is going to pitch in the playoffs. There is nothing I have to go on other than gut feeling, in fact Elias has clearly stated otherwise. But I think that is what he is shooting for. I bring it up only on the premise of having a guy in the bullpen who could miss bats.  They could have him be a situational guy and leave Kimbrel where he is for this season. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

So you think Elias will give up one of the top 3 prospects to get upgrades?

I don’t think he’s trading those guys for a RP even if he’s controlled. I could see them adding a legit bat or a SP that’s controllable. 

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I’m going to preface this by saying (1) I expect to get crushed for bringing it up and (2) it shouldn’t impact trade deadline strategy.  
 

I think Felix is going to pitch in the playoffs. There is nothing I have to go on other than gut feeling, in fact Elias has clearly stated otherwise. But I think that is what he is shooting for. I bring it up only on the premise of having a guy in the bullpen who could miss bats.  They could have him be a situational guy and leave Kimbrel where he is for this season. 

Gut feeling or wishful thinking?    All the evidence (normal recovery time, the second procedure, what Elias has said, being cautious because we control him for 3 more years) points to Bautista back in 2025.

[baltfan]

27 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I’m going to preface this by saying (1) I expect to get crushed for bringing it up and (2) it shouldn’t impact trade deadline strategy.  
 

I think Felix is going to pitch in the playoffs. There is nothing I have to go on other than gut feeling, in fact Elias has clearly stated otherwise. But I think that is what he is shooting for. I bring it up only on the premise of having a guy in the bullpen who could miss bats.  They could have him be a situational guy and leave Kimbrel where he is for this season. 

This would have more credibility if he hadn't needed the second surgery.  I also think they will be very careful after what happened with Means.  Better to just wait.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think he’s trading those guys for a RP even if he’s controlled. I could see them adding a legit bat or a SP that’s controllable. 

Kjerstad might be on the table.  I don’t believe any of the top 3 are.  A legit bat?   That’s the last thing Elias would trade one of the top 3 guys on.  You could make an argument for a pitcher like Crochet, who can both make a difference in the playoffs and is controllable for two more years, but I don’t believe Elias will take that gamble.

I think we all agree that the relief upgrades are attainable without giving up top prospects.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

So you think Elias will give up one of the top 3 prospects to get upgrades?

I can't say what Elias will do. Because I have no way of knowing that. I have no inside knowledge. I'm just a fan like everybody else.

What I can and will say is that he should be exploring every way to meaningful upgrade the roster where it is weakest, which is the pitching staff.

I understand not wanting to trade Holliday (and he should not IMO). Holliday's value, while still very high, is probably not as high it was before the season started.

But as far as the other two are concerned. An argument can be made that they are redundant pieces. One of them can be made expendable through a Santander (very affordable) extension. 

Now, what I will say, is that I don't think that it is the best strategy long term to hoard position player prospects (especially those who are redundant no matter how talented) at the sake of not having comparable talent on the pitching side. That has us with a prime aged Kjerstad wasting a season at AAA (while destroying the baseball) because there is literally no place to play him. I see it as taking on unnecessary risks to replace Santander and/or O'Hearn/Mountcastle when they are affordable and productive Major League players. Yes it is possible all of our prospects out hit/out produce them. But it is also possible that all do not. Replacing them all may lead to an unforced error in betting on the future.

IMO it doesn't have to be a binary choice of either/or with productive vets vs uber talented young prospects. We can have our cake and eat it to by taking a both/and approach. We will still have TWO uber talented prospects next year in Holliday and one of Mayo/Basallo while having Santander (extended) AND O'Hearn (on a team option at a very affordable contract) AND a difference making pitcher (to help soften the blow/loss of Bradish).

Yes this requires a little spending (which I acknowledge some posters hate the idea of that). But again it comes down to expectations and the bar that the org sets. If we want to be the next Astros (multi-World Series winners) it's not going to solely be about our front office and scouting talent, and trying to always be the smartest guys in the room. Sometimes the ownership has to do their part and invest in the known quotient/reliable talent that can keep your odds as high as possible because you can go toe-to-toe/bullet-for-bullet with anyone. 

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

We do not have the pitching talent necessary (in particular with the Bradish injury) to win a World Series IMO. Even if you believe in Rodriguez starting a game 2, who do we have that can credibly start a game 3 that you would feel confident in? And that doesn’t even mention the back end of the bullpen.

Irvin, Kremer, and maybe Povich are all capable of Game 3. You’re overstating what is necessary for postseason success. It doesn’t have to be a fool proof team. This offense is capable of carrying a league average #3 SP. 

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I can't say what Elias will do. Because I have no way of knowing that. I have no inside knowledge. I'm just a fan like everybody else.

What I can and will say is that he should be exploring every way to meaningful upgrade the roster where it is weakest, which is the pitching staff.

I understand not wanting to trade Holliday (and he should not IMO). Holliday's value, while still very high, is probably not as high it was before the season started.

But as far as the other two are concerned. An argument can be made that they are redundant pieces. One of them can be made expendable through a Santander (very affordable) extension. 

Now, what I will say, is that I don't think that it is the best strategy long term to hoard position player prospects (especially those who are redundant no matter how talented) at the sake of not having comparable talent on the pitching side. That has us with a prime aged Kjerstad wasting a season at AAA (while destroying the baseball) because there is literally no place to play him. I see it as taking on unnecessary risks to replace Santander and/or O'Hearn/Mountcastle when they are affordable and productive Major League players. Yes it is possible all of our prospects out hit/out produce them. But it is also possible that all do not. Replacing them all may lead to an unforced error in betting on the future.

IMO it doesn't have to be a binary choice of either/or with productive vets vs uber talented young prospects. We can have our cake and eat it to by taking a both/and approach. We will still have TWO uber talented prospects next year in Holliday and one of Mayo/Basallo while having Santander (extended) AND O'Hearn (on a team option at a very affordable contract) AND a difference making pitcher (to help soften the blow/loss of Bradish).

Yes this requires a little spending (which I acknowledge some posters hate the idea of that). But again it comes down to expectations and the bar that the org sets. If we want to be the next Astros (multi-World Series winners) it's not going to solely be about our front office and scouting talent, and trying to always be the smartest guys in the room. Sometimes the ownership has to do their part and invest in the known quotient/reliable talent that can keep your odds as high as possible because you can go toe-to-toe/bullet-for-bullet with anyone. 

This is too long and nobody is going to read it.

But, what kind of hypothetical return (specific players) makes sense for our top 3 guys and the potential trade partner?

 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Your definition of what we need and @Bemorewins definiton of what we need may be different.    Getting a #3 starter he feels confident as a game #3 starter in the playoffs.   Who, in his mind, is that pitcher?   Fedde will not require one of those guys.  Crochet might.

Honest question: In your opinion, how much better is Crochet than Fedde?

I will confess that I have not assessed both enough (side by side comparison) to know the answer to that question. I'm confident that our scouts do though.

I would say if they feel confident about getting equal production from either than you answer should be Fedde. But if you can objectively assess a discernible difference between the two and what you project for the rest of this season and going forward, I would say that the obvious answer should be Crocet.

[Sports Guy]

Kimbrel, Walker, Nardi, DC, Cano, Suarez, Webb, Perez pen would be very nice.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I can't say what Elias will do. Because I have no way of knowing that. I have no inside knowledge. I'm just a fan like everybody else.

What I can and will say is that he should be exploring every way to meaningful upgrade the roster where it is weakest, which is the pitching staff.

I understand not wanting to trade Holliday (and he should not IMO). Holliday's value, while still very high, is probably not as high it was before the season started.

But as far as the other two are concerned. An argument can be made that they are redundant pieces. One of them can be made expendable through a Santander (very affordable) extension. 

Now, what I will say, is that I don't think that it is the best strategy long term to hoard position player prospects (especially those who are redundant no matter how talented) at the sake of not having comparable talent on the pitching side. That has us with a prime aged Kjerstad wasting a season at AAA (while destroying the baseball) because there is literally no place to play him. I see it as taking on unnecessary risks to replace Santander and/or O'Hearn/Mountcastle when they are affordable and productive Major League players. Yes it is possible all of our prospects out hit/out produce them. But it is also possible that all do not. Replacing them all may lead to an unforced error in betting on the future.

IMO it doesn't have to be a binary choice of either/or with productive vets vs uber talented young prospects. We can have our cake and eat it to by taking a both/and approach. We will still have TWO uber talented prospects next year in Holliday and one of Mayo/Basallo while having Santander (extended) AND O'Hearn (on a team option at a very affordable contract) AND a difference making pitcher (to help soften the blow/loss of Bradish).

Yes this requires a little spending (which I acknowledge some posters hate the idea of that). But again it comes down to expectations and the bar that the org sets. If we want to be the next Astros (multi-World Series winners) it's not going to solely be about our front office and scouting talent, and trying to always be the smartest guys in the room. Sometimes the ownership has to do their part and invest in the known quotient/reliable talent that can keep your odds as high as possible because you can go toe-to-toe/bullet-for-bullet with anyone. 

All I asked is for your opinion on whether you think Elias will trade any of the top three prospects.   Certainly you have an opinion.

I like Santander but he might be DH/1B material within the next two years.    If he finishes the year well I would offer the QA.   Signing outfielders who are slowing down and entering there 30’s so you can trade 19 and 22 yo prospects doesn’t seem like the answer.

I agree that we need bullpen help and another really good starter to feel good about a short series in the postseason.   Elias just won’t sell out to increase his chances for one year.  Again, I think Kjerstad might be on the table, especially if they envision Mayo in RF.