The 2024 Trade Deadline

[lfallo1]

24 minutes ago, now said:

I don't have a horse in that race, but I question your logic. Seems like you're saying: Stuff > Results. Or maybe, so far this year Irvin is better, but long term you're betting on Grayson?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cole-irvin-608344?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Grayson has a higher ceiling than Cole, I think almost anyone would argue, yes.  But even if we're strictly looking at numbers, despite Grayson's uneven start, he is still statistically better than Cole in a handful of areas (mainly whiff rate, K rate, xBA, xERA).

Edited June 1 by lfallo1

[DirtyBird]

Just now, lfallo1 said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cole-irvin-608344?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Can't post pics, but strictly looking at numbers, despite Grayson's uneven start, he is still statistically better than Cole in a handful of areas (mainly whiff rate, K rate, xBA, xERA).

The point wasn’t who was better between Irvin or Grayson, it was that if there is even a discussion, Grayson can’t be considered part of a “Big 3”. 
After his performance in the playoffs last year and his lack of command so far this season, he needs to show a decent amount of improvement to be looked at that way.

[HowAboutThat]

20 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/marlins-trade-rumors-tanner-scott-closer.html

The Marlins' Tanner Scott is an interesting guy.  It's a shame we couldn't harness his ability while he was here.  If our scouts feel that he'd be an asset, I'd be okay with adding him.  Yet, the walks, as we all experienced, are always a concern.

Scott has improved of late, but he’s still walking 7 guys per nine, he has a 1.4 WHIP, and is completely infuriating. When he was here he drove everybody nuts, and when the Marlins traded for him, I knew there was something seriously wrong with that braintrust.

Im backing off of Miller, I think he’s coming to earth, and is always close to a TJ vacation, but Scott isn’t the answer at all.

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I updated my post above after realizing I missed their trade suggestion: Bradfield, Povich, and Norby.  I think their proposal is too short on our end.

I don’t want to trade a promising pitcher. We’ve got plenty of position guys, they can get pitching somewhere else.

[HowAboutThat]

Re: Tanner Scott. I looked up his baseball savant page and laughed out loud. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tanner-scott-656945?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Check out his BB rate.

 

Laff laff laff….

Everything else is pretty good. I was mistaken about his stats-wise, but I still don’t want to trade for him. I just know he’d turn back into a pumpkin.

[now]

1 hour ago, lfallo1 said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cole-irvin-608344?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Grayson has a higher ceiling than Cole, I think almost anyone would argue, yes.  But even if we're strictly looking at numbers, despite Grayson's uneven start, he is still statistically better than Cole in a handful of areas (mainly whiff rate, K rate, xBA, xERA).

I recall Sig Mejdal recently commenting that as far as core stats go, he much prefers FIP over ERA. So on that basis Irvin loses his current ERA advantage:

Rodriguez 3.53 ERA, 3.43 FIP
Irvin 2.84 ERA, 3.45 FIP

I can see I'm going to have to get on board the FIP train, after thinking (twenty years ago) maybe OPS and WAR were the end of the line.  

Edited June 1 by now

[dystopia]

20 minutes ago, now said:

I recall Sig Mejdal recently commenting that as far as core stats go, he much prefers FIP over ERA. So on that basis Irvin loses his current ERA advantage:

Rodriguez 3.53 ERA, 3.43 FIP
Irvin 2.84 ERA, 3.45 FIP

I can see I'm going to have to get on board the FIP train, after thinking (twenty years ago) maybe OPS and WAR were the end of the line.  

Link to that please? Because the more I see of FIP the more I don't like it.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Scott has improved of late, but he’s still walking 7 guys per nine, he has a 1.4 WHIP, and is completely infuriating. When he was here he drove everybody nuts, and when the Marlins traded for him, I knew there was something seriously wrong with that braintrust.

Im backing off of Miller, I think he’s coming to earth, and is always close to a TJ vacation, but Scott isn’t the answer at all.

Scott had a 2.8 FWAR last year.  He was one of the best relievers in baseball.  He got off to a scary start this year bringing back memories of his wild rides.  He walked 7 in his last 34 innings last year (24 in 78 for the year) and looked like he had figured it out.   This year back to square one BUT he seems to be coming around again.  Last 6 appearances covering 6 innings.  3 hits, 1 walk, 5 K.   He won’t cost a bundle going into FA and the Marlins are definitely looking to deal.   I think he’s a good and realistic target.

[now]

56 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Link to that please? Because the more I see of FIP the more I don't like it.

Mejdal was interviewed during the TV broadcast... maybe two weeks ago. He repeated his preference right at the end of the interview (IIRC, from the stands or field). 

[HowAboutThat]

50 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Scott had a 2.8 FWAR last year.  He was one of the best relievers in baseball.  He got off to a scary start this year bringing back memories of his wild rides.  He walked 7 in his last 34 innings last year (24 in 78 for the year) and looked like he had figured it out.   This year back to square one BUT he seems to be coming around again.  Last 6 appearances covering 6 innings.  3 hits, 1 walk, 5 K.   He won’t cost a bundle going into FA and the Marlins are definitely looking to deal.   I think he’s a good and realistic target.

As I said, in my second post, he has improved, I don’t care what he did last year. I’m much more interested in what he’s doing this year. And he’s improved, but he still walking seven batters per nine, and as far as I’m concerned, No.

He was maddening when he was here, and I expect that he would be if he returned

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Scott has improved of late, but he’s still walking 7 guys per nine, he has a 1.4 WHIP, and is completely infuriating. When he was here he drove everybody nuts, and when the Marlins traded for him, I knew there was something seriously wrong with that braintrust.

Im backing off of Miller, I think he’s coming to earth, and is always close to a TJ vacation, but Scott isn’t the answer at all.

Miller is mikes better than any of our relievers. One bad outing doesn’t change that. Felix had bad outings before. It happens.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Link to that please? Because the more I see of FIP the more I don't like it.

@now had it right - I saw it also on the O's Xtra pregame show - Rob Long did a 2-day "school" talking with Sig on the advanced stats.    I think this is it.

I've joked before you can get a lead on Orioles targets just looking at whose ERA-FIP differential is bad.

I believe the 30 GM's collectively are past that as they negotiate with each other, but I'm sure they are all trying to optimize each individual negotiation.

Its fun to watch Sig navigate what do I want to say to the MASN viewer that none of the other 29 orgs can scrape for tidbits of anything the Orioles are drilling in on.

"We like players who are good"

[dystopia]

29 minutes ago, now said:

Mejdal was interviewed during the TV broadcast... maybe two weeks ago. He repeated his preference right at the end of the interview (IIRC, from the stands or field). 

Well that explains how we keep ending up with bad relievers off the trash heap.

[HowAboutThat]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Miller is mikes better than any of our relievers. One bad outing doesn’t change that. Felix had bad outings before. It happens.

I’m not really worried about his performance, I’m worried about his injury history And the probability that it would interfere with him and the rest of the season.

However, He is coming down to earth a bit; it’s not just his last outing, but his last few outings, I think.

Still love to have him, but the price I would be willing to pay has decreased a little bit.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m not really worried about his performance, I’m worried about his injury history And the probability that it would interfere with him and the rest of the season.

However, He is coming down to earth a bit; it’s not just his last outing, but his last few outings, I think.

Still love to have him, but the price I would be willing to pay has decreased a little bit.

I’m kind of confused with the “coming to earth a bit” idea/notion/words. He has had 2 bad outings ALL SEASON. And all of his numbers are still SUPERIOR in every way to any reliever on our roster.  The talent difference between what he can do and what our best two guys combined can do is very wide!

Again, he has had two bad outings. One recently against the Rays and the other about 4/5 appearances ago against the Rockies.

He is literally the very best reliever that we could acquire.