The Braves series, June 11-13

[yark14]

29 minutes ago, dystopia said:

One has to kind of wonder whether they’ve kind of thrown in the towel this year after losing Acuña. That was such a huge blow. 

I don't think so.  They still have plenty of talent, plus an excellent player development system (even if they don't have top prospects, but surely some that still have value trade-wise).

[Billy F-Face3]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This Braves team will get better but they are a great reminder of not assuming anything.

This isn’t close to the team they have had in recent years because of injuries and down years. That happens and we should never taken winning for granted.

Reminds me of the Cardinals going to the playoffs in 2022 and everyone thinking they would be back in 2023. Then 2023 comes along and the Cardinals had to have a fire sale at the trade deadline because of how bad their season went.

I agree. We should take nothing for granted. Strike whipe the iron is hot.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

40 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Reminds me of the Cardinals going to the playoffs in 2022 and everyone thinking they would be back in 2023. Then 2023 comes along and the Cardinals had to have a fire sale at the trade deadline because of how bad their season went.

I agree. We should take nothing for granted. Strike whipe the iron is hot.

This is why I want to see Elias trade for two bullpen arms. This team is having another great year and I'd hate to see it pissed away due to the bullpen.

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This Braves team will get better but they are a great reminder of not assuming anything.

This isn’t close to the team they have had in recent years because of injuries and down years. That happens and we should never taken winning for granted.

Fantastic point. I had friends pencilling the 76ers into multiple finals, but you just never know.

Their fans travel well, though.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

They aren't this bad, but they basically all had career years last year and there was some regression due, not to mention, nearly all of the bats they locked up are now past their prime, they are all 29-33, so maybe they are just not going to be that good, 26 is the peak, I hear.

Where’d you hear that?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Fantastic point. I had friends pencilling the 76ers into multiple finals, but you just never know.

Their fans travel well, though.

 

[O's84]

 

17 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This is why I want to see Elias trade for two bullpen arms. This team is having another great year and I'd hate to see it pissed away due to the bullpen.

 

Losing Means and Wells hurt a lot.  Otherwise you got Wells and Suarez to reinforce the pen.  Still would have needed another arm.  But now were stretched extremely thin.  And let's hope Danny is okay or else it's even worse.  Gotta get a pair of arms at the deadline.

 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

Where’d you hear that?

Here, often. Players peak at 26, all downhill from there.

Edited June 13 by Malike

[Just Regular]

I'm interested to see Reynaldo live.

94 his max pitch count on the year - B-Ref credits him with 66% strikes.    It'll be hard to elevate the pitch count but bats should see some challenge pitches.

Cole Irvin also a top strike thrower - add getaway day, and some ingredients there for a fast moving game.

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, survivedc said:

 

Their fans travel well, though.

Their fan base starts in Richmond.  Much closer driving to Baltimore than Atlanta. TBS left a big footprint across the southeast. 

 

7 hours ago, Malike said:

Here, often. Players peak at 26, all downhill from there.

26-30 is fairly universally considered the peak range.  Some say 27-29.  

Of more interest to me is the conversation about locking up stars and now seeing ATL scuffle.  Anecdotal for sure (like nearly every point made on the topic), but aging trends aren't. It's really hard to fight Father Time...

How much did Acuna's career aid career years from the rest?  How much does that relate to what Gunnar is doing now?  We know the direction, but the degree?  Who's our Olson?

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Malike said:

They aren't this bad, but they basically all had career years last year and there was some regression due, not to mention, nearly all of the bats they locked up are now past their prime, they are all 29-33, so maybe they are just not going to be that good, 26 is the peak, I hear.

The peak has always been around 27, but the curve is pretty flat between 26 and 31. Give or take. Of course individuals may peak at pretty much any age. Nick Markakis' best season was 24, Al Kaline was just a fraction of a win off his high at 20, and Hoyt Wilhelm's most valuable year was at 36. Although most pitchers don't have an aging curve with a peak, so much as a scatter plot. Then you have David Ortiz and Barry Bonds who had very late peaks because of clean livin' and hard work...

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The peak has always been around 27, but the curve is pretty flat between 26 and 31. Give or take. Of course individuals may peak at pretty much any age. Nick Markakis' best season was 24, Al Kaline was just a fraction of a win off his high at 20, and Hoyt Wilhelm's most valuable year was at 36. Although most pitchers don't have an aging curve with a peak, so much as a scatter plot. Then you have David Ortiz and Barry Bonds who had very late peaks because of clean livin' and hard work...

And then there's Miguel Tejada...  Did we ever get his real DOB? 

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Their fan base starts in Richmond.  Much closer driving to Baltimore than Atlanta. TBS left a big footprint across the southeast. 

 

26-30 is fairly universally considered the peak range.  Some say 27-29.  

Of more interest to me is the conversation about locking up stars and now seeing ATL scuffle.  Anecdotal for sure (like nearly every point made on the topic), but aging trends aren't. It's really hard to fight Father Time...

How much did Acuna's career aid career years from the rest?  How much does that relate to what Gunnar is doing now?  We know the direction, but the degree?  Who's our Olson?

It's 27, but like I said, roughly 26-31 is fairly flat if you average across all MLB players. 

Some studies come up with some other age (usually older), but they're often addressing survivor bias incorrectly. They'll just look at productivity by age of MLB players, and not account for playing time. For example, you might find that 33-year-olds hit about as well as 27-year-olds, but that there are three times as many 27-year-olds in the league because 2/3rds of the 33-year-olds have been weeded out of the majors and are providing zero value. And the ones left are the best of the lot. So when doing an aging study you need to add a bunch of ballast to account for that effect in those age groups.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

And then there's Miguel Tejada...  Did we ever get his real DOB? 

Remember Eddie Rogers? I was at a BaySox game in 2000, looking at the roster, and was like "Man, this kid is 18 years old and holding his own in AA. He's going to be a star!" But then two things happened: he never really developed, and come to find out he was three years older than his fake Dominincan Republic docs said he was. 

But he can always say that he had a Major League season with a 5.000 OPS. Let's see somebody top that.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Remember Eddie Rogers? I was at a BaySox game in 2000, looking at the roster, and was like "Man, this kid is 18 years old and holding his own in AA. He's going to be a star!" But then two things happened: he never really developed, and come to find out he was three years older than his fake Dominincan Republic docs said he was. 

But he can always say that he had a Major League season with a 5.000 OPS. Let's see somebody top that.

He also famously lost a ball in his shirt.

Edited June 13 by Frobby