Hmm… so about that qualifying offer to Santander?

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes. Joey Ortiz and DL Hall got us one. Basallo definitely could headline a deal for an ACE. Now we could argue who is the Ace? And how team much control does that Ace have left?

After a slow May of adjusting to being a freaking 19 year old in AA ball, he’s put up a .900 OPS once the weather got warm. I’m just going to go out on a very short limb and say that he probably puts up and OPS closer to .900 than .700 the rest of the way in AA this year. 

Burnes had one year of control.  He was talking about Sonny Gray (2+) and Logan Webb (4+).

I think Basallo alone could get you Sonny Gray under the right conditions but it would be bad optics for Cincy who just signed him this year.  
 

I don’t think Basallo would get you the 27 year old Webb.

Also, there’s a difference between headline with smaller pieces and being part of a package with other good prospects.

Edited June 23 by RZNJ

[sportsfan8703]

If we were to offer Sam Basallo for Logan Webb here’s what would happen… the bat starved Giants would hand deliver the trade paperwork to the Comissioner’s office while laughing all the way that they just got Buster Posey 2.0 and they have the money to give Corbin Burnes in the offseason. 
 

I know we just lost guys. Two in a row. But doesn’t affect Basallo’s value. And yes… it is possible to have three untouchable super prospects. We’re looking at it. 

[sportsfan8703]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Burnes had one year of control.  He was talking about Sonny Gray (2+) and Logan Webb (4+).

I think Basallo alone could get you Sonny Gray under the right conditions but it would be bad optics for Cincy who just signed him this year.  
 

I don’t think Basallo would get you the 27 year old Webb.

Also, there’s a difference between headline with smaller pieces and being part of a package with other good prospects.

Imagine a world where we don’t have Holliday and Mayo. I know I know it’s sad. Basallo is every bit of a prospect that Holliday and Rutschman were. Even Gunnar. Just because we have three, doesn’t diminish their value. 

So build the case against Sam Basallo not being on Holliday/Rutschman/Gunnar Uber prospect level. I’ll hear you out. 

Edit - Build the case that Basallo, outside if Skenes has eligibility, is not the #1 overall best prospect in baseball. Build that case. I’m all ears. 

If Basallo was a NCAA Sophomore he would undoubtedly go 1:1 in this draft. 

Edited June 23 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we were to offer Sam Basallo for Logan Webb here’s what would happen… the bat starved Giants would hand deliver the trade paperwork to the Comissioner’s office while laughing all the way that they just got Buster Posey 2.0 and they have the money to give Corbin Burnes in the offseason. 
 

I know we just lost guys. Two in a row. But doesn’t affect Basallo’s value. And yes… it is possible to have three untouchable super prospects. We’re looking at it. 

You already have Basallo in the HOF.  Nice.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Imagine a world where we don’t have Holliday and Mayo. I know I know it’s sad. Basallo is every bit of a prospect that Holliday and Rutschman were. Even Gunnar. Just because we have three, doesn’t diminish their value. 

So build the case against Sam Basallo not being on Holliday/Rutschman/Gunnar Uber prospect level. I’ll hear you out. 

He’s an Uber prospect.  So?

So was Jared Kelenic.

And Victor Robles.

And Yoan Moncada.

Edited June 23 by RZNJ

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He’s an Uber prospect.  So?

So was Jared Kelenic.

And Victor Robles.

And Yoan Moncada.

I like to use Jesus Montero as my bad outcome comp for Basallo.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I like to use Jesus Montero as my bad outcome comp for Basallo.

Perish the thought.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

10 hours ago, Birdland in NC said:

The comps are dumb

On the contrary, the Trumbo/Santander comp is very accurate. Uncannily accurate. Possibly the single most accurate comp I have ever seen TBH.

9 hours ago, Birdland in NC said:

Mlb.com had Santander before this season as a top 100 player (86) in MLB.  Our minor leaguers are years from being that and we want to win now.  Also he looks amazing in the O’s Hawaiian shirt!  Pay that man!   

It's nice that he can pull off a Hawaiian shirt, but that doesn't actually affect the general aging curve of one dimensional, slug-only players as they move into their 30's or the team's 2025 needs.

57 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we were to offer Sam Basallo for Logan Webb here’s what would happen… the bat starved Giants would hand deliver the trade paperwork to the Comissioner’s office while laughing all the way that they just got Buster Posey 2.0 

This is some serious homerism, IMO.

Webb is an established ace with 4.5 years of control, including 3 prime free agent years at a fraction of market value, while Basallo is generally viewed as a future 1B/DH who might be able to catch once in awhile rather than an everyday catcher. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Apparently, he’s a notorious slow ender as well.  Career .666 OPS in April.  Career .645 OPS in Sept/Oct.

The mark of the beast in April. 

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we were to offer Sam Basallo for Logan Webb here’s what would happen… the bat starved Giants would hand deliver the trade paperwork to the Comissioner’s office while laughing all the way that they just got Buster Posey 2.0 and they have the money to give Corbin Burnes in the offseason. 
 

I know we just lost guys. Two in a row. But doesn’t affect Basallo’s value. And yes… it is possible to have three untouchable super prospects. We’re looking at it. 

Webb is under control through 2028, I'm not sure they'd laugh at the trade proposal. They're not really in a position to trade him either. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, dystopia said:

Webb is under control through 2028, I'm not sure they'd laugh at the trade proposal. They're not really in a position to trade him either. 

*under control through 2028 at a fraction of market value

That is extremely important to point out. The idea that they would trade that contract is laughable, it's basically a dream asset for every GM in baseball.

[Birdland in NC]

11 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

That is how I feel as well.  He is a proven commodity.  If we can trade a couple or a few of our 'potential' commodities to get pitching that could help us win a WS this year and/or the next?  Just by keeping AS and paying him an extra $5 M or so compared to now? 

Considering our pitching issues you do that all day and twice on Sunday. 

Amen brother

[StottyByNature]

As always, it is best to make decisions based on a long track record and not after a recent hot streak.  Having said that, I believe that giving Santander a QO is the correct move as I believed prior to the season as well.  It would be an overpay for the year but worth it to maintain payroll flexibility versus a longer term deal.  I just don't believe he is the kind of player that will age well, but I'd be willing to overpay for one more peak year.

This obviously would block Kjerstad/Stowers but I think the former could be used as the centerpiece of a trade.

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

On the contrary, the Trumbo/Santander comp is very accurate. Uncannily accurate. Possibly the single most accurate comp I have ever seen TBH.

Superficially, they have very similar career slash lines at the same age. Which is kinda cool. But I don’t think it tells us much moving forward, for a couple reasons (some of which were already posited by @Frobby).

First is trajectory. Before his career year with us ahead of FA, Trumbo’s two best seasons were actually his first two. He put up a combined 119 OPS+ in his rookie and second years. He then regressed substantially over the next three years, with a combined 105 OPS+. He also was getting kicked around the league at that point, traded from LAA to ARI to SEA and finally to BAL. There was a lot of really mediocre baseball leading up to that big FA year bounceback with us. 

On the other hand, Santander has played his best ball recently. He dealt with injuries early in his ML career and frankly scuffled to a 97 OPS+ over parts of 5 seasons. But over the last 3 years, he’s been a consistently very good hitter — a combined 121 OPS+ in 2022-23, leading up to this year’s 133 OPS+.

In other words, while Trumbo’s FA year looked like a “spike” following years of mediocre hitting, Santander’s looks like a natural continuation of what he’s been doing for years now.

The other big difference is play style. @Frobby already hit the fact that Santander is a better athlete and a legitimate defensive OF (rather than realistically 1B/DH only as Trumbo was, or should have been).

The one thing I want to highlight in their play style that’s also very different is K rate. I think that’s one of the BIG indicators of likely drop-off in aging sluggers. If you can’t make consistent contact in your physical prime, you’re going to be swinging and missing constantly once you’re starting to drop off. 

Trumbo was a huge K guy, pretty much always sitting in the bottom 20 percent of the league in strikeout rate. Santander is very different in this respect — in fact, he’s actually 68th percentile in K rate and 76th percentile in whiff rate this year. Pretty impressive for a free swinger with big power. To me, that also suggests he’ll potentially age a lot better than Trumbo.