2024 3rd Round Pick (#97): Austin Overn - OF - (So) USC (CA)

[ChosenOne21]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think they are?

 

Right? What are the chances the BPA is always an up-the-middle college bat?

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think they are?

 

For their board, yes 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For their board, yes 

If you highly skew your criteria to favor college bats I don't consider it the BPA.

I wonder if Elias would have picked Skenes at 1-1?

I think the talent was so overwhelming he would have but I don't know.

Now that I stop and think about it, I bet Elias would have gone Crews.

Edited July 15 by Can_of_corn

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Right? What are the chances the BPA is always an up-the-middle college bat?

Hey, he picked a CO that one time.

[oriolediehard]

Is everyone happy with Elias's strategy?  In Elias we trust!!

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you highly skew your criteria to favor college bats I don't consider it the BPA.

I wonder if Elias would have picked Skenes at 1-1?

I think the talent was so overwhelming he would have but I don't know.

Now that I stop and think about it, I bet Elias would have gone Crews.

I doubt it, but who knows?   

[Allan Bryant]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, the one thing we know, is that Mike Elias is doubling down on his college bat philosophy. 

Now if he could double down on college pitchers 

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you highly skew your criteria to favor college bats I don't consider it the BPA.

I wonder if Elias would have picked Skenes at 1-1?

I think the talent was so overwhelming he would have but I don't know.

Now that I stop and think about it, I bet Elias would have gone Crews.

What YOU consider BPA is irrelevant. No one cares.

Teams build their boards, in all sports, the way they want to build them. They may skew towards certain positions or things like that but I think most teams put extra value in premium positions across sports.  

No doubt an up the middle player will get more of a boost and value given to him because of his position. 
 

I would guess that whatever formula the Os use to build their board, more weight is given to that than to a pitcher. That would be the discussion to have.

The other side to this is that they just have way more info than we do, so there could be things they know about that only other teams know…like if there is some underlying physical issue or if there are some between the ears stuff that pop in interviews or testing.

The Os seem to place a lot of value on character. Now, you don’t hear a lot about baseball players getting into trouble like you hear about in the NFL or NBA but you still want to make sure you getting the type of person you are comfortable with bringing into the system. Judging by how close these guys are, I would say the Os have done a good job judging that aspect of things.

Personally, I think it’s smart to skew towards position players but agree that they need to be more aggressive finding some pitching. I probably would have preferred Becht over O’Farrell but maybe there was info they had on Becht that wasn’t favorable.

The reality is that MlB needs to allow trading picks. That would completely change things in so many ways.

[Rbiggs2525]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What YOU consider BPA is irrelevant. No one cares.

Teams build their boards, in all sports, the way they want to build them. They may skew towards certain positions or things like that but I think most teams put extra value in premium positions across sports.  

No doubt an up the middle player will get more of a boost and value given to him because of his position. 
 

I would guess that whatever formula the Os use to build their board, more weight is given to that than to a pitcher. That would be the discussion to have.

The other side to this is that they just have way more info than we do, so there could be things they know about that only other teams know…like if there is some underlying physical issue or if there are some between the ears stuff that pop in interviews or testing.

The Os seem to place a lot of value on character. Now, you don’t hear a lot about baseball players getting into trouble like you hear about in the NFL or NBA but you still want to make sure you getting the type of person you are comfortable with bringing into the system. Judging by how close these guys are, I would say the Os have done a good job judging that aspect of things.

Personally, I think it’s smart to skew towards position players but agree that they need to be more aggressive finding some pitching. I probably would have preferred Becht over O’Farrell but maybe there was info they had on Becht that wasn’t favorable.

The reality is that MlB needs to allow trading picks. That would completely change things in so many ways.

I’m fine with this strategy as long as we do one thing. Use resources in free agency/trades to fill pitching needs. I’d like to see around 50 million dollars spent this offseason on pitching needs. We will be clearing 27 million in just Burnes and Santander.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I’m fine with this strategy as long as we do one thing. Use resources in free agency/trades to fill pitching needs. I’d like to see around 50 million dollars spent this offseason on pitching needs. We will be clearing 27 million in just Burnes and Santander.

I agree that you can’t not draft pitching but then turn around and also not buy it, whether it be in trades or with money.

The FA class isn’t too inspiring.

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree that you can’t not draft pitching but then turn around and also not buy it, whether it be in trades or with money.

The FA class isn’t too inspiring.

One of Burnes/Fried, and Kikuchi type. With Bautista coming back that may solidify the bullpen.

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you highly skew your criteria to favor college bats I don't consider it the BPA.

I wonder if Elias would have picked Skenes at 1-1?

The model sets the board.  The market determines who's available.

One function/benefit of a model is the focus on things you think are important.  You have measurable variables and you assign them weighting.  The model applies the math and a list is made.  A risk is the human inputs of what variables are used and the weighting applied.  Which is why usually you validate the output to test reasonability (which would be a bit subjective considering the nature of the draft exercise).    <<Insert Game Theory adjustments here>>

This draft validates that he virtually eliminates SPs from the 1st round even in non-rebuild years.  Very "fantasy baseball"-esque approach to seek ceiling while not neglecting floor.

I highly doubt he would take Skenes at 1.1 too.  Would he have taken Skenes at 1.22?

It does appear that we're marketing our higher floor guys for SPs (Irvin, Flaherty, Fuji, Burnes, tbd...).  Your 12 years for 1 year question is valid.  If we're trading our floor guys, I think it's worth it.  I don't for our ceiling guys.  Which is where it’s important to know who to keep and who to trade (to continue the investor analogy).

[sportsfan8703]

18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Another freaking college OFer.  Seriously, wtf? 

We might be restocking the system with the impending trade deadline coming up. We just sold a bat in Ortiz to buy Burnes. We’re about to have to sell some more bats at the deadline. Then possibly this winter to replace Burnes. 

So if we’re growing bats to buy arms, then we need to select more bats to use as currency. 

[sportsfan8703]

18 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Intriguing guy. Seems like an Uber athlete that was supposed to be first round pick before the season started. Mayo called him fastest player in the draft. 

Similar to John Rhodes when we took him. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

With some time to reflect on this draft, Overn is my favorite pick. It seems he was really gaining some helium with his wood bat performance in the Cape Cod league.

But most importantly, players with true elite CF/SS/C profiles are exceptionally rare - there’s only a handful of them in any given draft. The Orioles just spent both of their last first round draft picks on guys that have them. In Overn they got that same profile with a 3rd round pick.

Of course, the offensive part is still a huge side of the equation - for instance your Maverick Handley and Silas Ardoin types are not worth anything if their offense is so poor. But for Overn, it doesn’t seem his bat is so far behind Bradfield or Honeycutt, there’s enough there offensively that this feels like it could be a tremendous value.